HLV Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

HLV Ltd trades at ₹7.2, in a downtrend and 104 weeks into that stage. That is −21.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 17% of a 52-week range of ₹6 to ₹12. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (6 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 104 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹7.2 it trades −21.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 17% of its 52-week range (₹6–₹12).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved −59% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (6 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-19) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 11th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

HLV Ltd trades at 2.8× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 11% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 4.9×, measured across 9.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 2.8× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 11% of the time, against a long-run median of 4.9× measured over 9.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the −7.3%/yr price move, ~−0.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−7.1 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the −9.0%/yr price move, ~+14.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−23.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

HLV Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 4 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

43.3/100 — rank 24 of 24 in Hotels · 38% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers

HLV Ltd scores 43.3 out of 100 against the 24 companies it is compared with in Hotels, ranking 24. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.9 + 10.9 + 11.5 + 3 = 43.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

HLV Ltd reported ₹38.0 Cr of revenue in the Mar 20 quarter, −11.6% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at −10.6% a year. The last full year, FY20, came in at ₹146 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹147 Cr.

HLV Ltd reported ₹38.0 Cr of revenue in the Mar 20 quarter, −11.6% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at −10.6% a year. The last full year, FY20, came in at ₹146 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹147 Cr.

FY20 revenue came in at ₹146 Cr (−5.2% on the year), capping 10 years at −10.6% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 20) printed ₹38.0 Cr, −11.6% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −9.5% growth against the decade's −10.6% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: −39.0% this quarter (−41.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

HLV Ltd's operating margin is −39.0% in the Mar 20 quarter, −41.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −54.0% to 35.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

HLV Ltd's operating margin is −39.0% in the Mar 20 quarter, −41.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −54.0% to 35.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −39.0%, −41.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −54.0%–35.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −41.2 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.6 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit null in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

HLV Ltd posted a net loss of ₹17.0 Cr in the Mar 20 quarter. Full-year FY20 profit was ₹194 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 16.8%. That loss is 44.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹30.0 Cr. 5 of the last 8 reported quarters were loss-making.

HLV Ltd posted a net loss of ₹17.0 Cr in the Mar 20 quarter. Full-year FY20 profit was ₹194 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 16.8%. That loss is 44.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹30.0 Cr. 5 of the last 8 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 20 profit was ₹−17.0 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY20 printed ₹194 Cr (null), and the 10-year compound rate is 16.8%.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 182% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 182% of HLV Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY20 that was ₹139 Cr of operating cash against ₹194 Cr of profit. After ₹−3.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹142 Cr was left as free cash.

FY20: operating cash of ₹139 Cr against reported profit of ₹194 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹142 Cr after ₹−3.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 182% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 182%: the cash cycle stretched 65 days between FY15 and FY20 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a 19-day cycle and ₹−3,720 Cr of building.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

HLV Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 19 days in FY20, up from −46 days in FY15. Capital spending ran ₹−3,720 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY20 sales of ₹146 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹0.4 Cr, so roughly ₹8.0 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY20: debtors at 19 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 19 days, looser than FY15's −46.

In money terms: at FY20 sales of ₹146 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹0.4 Cr — so the 19-day loop keeps roughly ₹8.0 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹−3,720 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹35.0 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1.0 Cr (FY20) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 8% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −13.4 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

HLV Ltd earns a ROCE of 8% in FY20. That is up from a trough of −2% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −13.4 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 132.9% net margin on 0.22× asset turns.

FY20 ROCE is 8%, recovered from a FY15 trough of −2% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY20): 132.9% net margin × 0.22× asset turns × 1.44× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 42.1% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: −1.4% − 12.0% = a −13.4 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.07.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

HLV Ltd carries ₹33.0 Cr of borrowings against ₹457 Cr of equity in FY20, a debt-to-equity of 0.07. Operating profit covers the interest bill −37×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹5,034 Cr to ₹33.0 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹−3,720 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY20: borrowings of ₹33.0 Cr against equity of ₹457 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.07. Operating profit covers the interest bill −37×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹5,034 Cr to ₹33.0 Cr while capital spending ran ₹−3,720 Cr in just the last 3 — the build-out is being paid for out of cash, not debt.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 6.3 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 6.3 points of HLV Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 39.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.1 points over the same window, to 0.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −6.3 points over 8 quarters to 39.1%; Foreign institutions: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%; Domestic institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 1.5%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−6.3 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

HLV Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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