GHCL Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

GHCL Ltd trades at ₹434, in a downtrend and 29 weeks into that stage. That is −13.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 2% of a 52-week range of ₹429 to ₹650. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (34 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 29 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹434 it trades −13.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 2% of its 52-week range (₹429–₹650).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +309% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (34 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2025-12-12) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 70th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

GHCL Ltd trades at 8.8× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (70th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 7.1×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 8.8× is at the pricey end of its own range (70th percentile), against a long-run median of 7.1× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −21.2% against a −28.3% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +7.4%/yr price move, ~+7.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+0.1 pp from the multiple (roughly flat); over 10y, of the +8.9%/yr price move, ~+6.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+2.5 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

GHCL Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue, profit and EPS growth are shrinking (revenue growth −3.7% latest against +18.5% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 17.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

46.7/100 — rank 5 of 7 in Chemicals - Inorganic - Caustic Soda/Soda Ash · 90% evidence confidence

GHCL Ltd scores 46.7 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Chemicals - Inorganic - Caustic Soda/Soda Ash, ranking 5. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 6.1 + 21.1 + 11.8 + 7.7 = 46.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

GHCL Ltd reported ₹791 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.3% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 1.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,064 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,065 Cr.

GHCL Ltd reported ₹791 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.3% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 1.9% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹3,064 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹3,065 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹3,064 Cr (−3.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 1.9% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹791 Cr, +1.3% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −3.7% growth against the decade's 1.9% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −3.7% over the last 4 quarters against −5.7%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −24.2% vs −22.8%/yr — stabilising.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 22.0% this quarter (−6.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

GHCL Ltd's operating margin is 22.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −6.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 20.0% to 33.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

GHCL Ltd's operating margin is 22.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −6.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 20.0% to 33.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 22.0%, −6.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 20.0%–33.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −5.7 pp year on year while gross margin went −5.6 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −22.7% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

GHCL Ltd earned ₹116 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −22.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹472 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.2%. That is 14.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹150 Cr.

GHCL Ltd earned ₹116 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −22.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹472 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.2%. That is 14.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹150 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹116 Cr, −22.7% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹472 Cr (−24.4%), and the 10-year compound rate is 6.2%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +1.3% and the margin −6.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −23.8% vs revenue −3.7%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 112% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 112% of GHCL Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹687 Cr of operating cash against ₹472 Cr of profit. After ₹282 Cr of capital spending, ₹405 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹687 Cr against reported profit of ₹472 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹405 Cr after ₹282 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 112% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 112%: the cash cycle tightened 32 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.3× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹756 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

GHCL Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 126 days in FY26, down from 158 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹756 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹3,064 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹8.4 Cr, so roughly ₹1,058 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 21 days, inventory at 199 days — roughly 6.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 126 days, tighter than FY21's 158.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 199 days to sell; customers pay about 21 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 94 days — netting out to the 126-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹3,064 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹8.4 Cr — so the 126-day loop keeps roughly ₹1,058 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹756 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹325 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹450 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 17% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +4.6 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

GHCL Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 15% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +4.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 15.4% net margin on 0.71× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 17%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 15% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 15.4% net margin × 0.71× asset turns × 1.21× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.2% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 16.6% − 12.0% = a +4.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.02.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

GHCL Ltd carries total debt of ₹83.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹3,552 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.02 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.27 in FY22 to 0.02 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹83.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹3,552 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.02. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.27 (FY22) to 0.02 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions cut 2.3 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 2.3 points of GHCL Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 22.4% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +1.9 points over the same window, to 11.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −2.3 points over 8 quarters to 22.4%; Domestic institutions: +1.9 points over 8 quarters to 11.2%; Promoters: +0.8 points over 8 quarters to 19.8%. Note the structure: promoters hold under 20% — this is a widely-held company where institutions, not a family, set the direction.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.3 points against domestic institutions +1.9 points over 8 quarters, with promoters +0.8 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

GHCL Ltd: the Z-score reads 6.99. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 6.99 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 6.99.

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