EMS Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

EMS Ltd trades at ₹417, in a downtrend and 70 weeks into that stage. That is +3.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 48% of a 52-week range of ₹271 to ₹575. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 11 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 70 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹417 it trades +3.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 48% of its 52-week range (₹271–₹575).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 2.8 years the stock moved +56% while the NIFTY 500 moved +35% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 11 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 80th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

EMS Ltd trades at 24.7× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (80th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 19.1×, measured across 2.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 24.7× is at the pricey end of its own range (80th percentile), against a long-run median of 19.1× measured over 2.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −50.7% against a −34.2% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

EMS Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue and profit growth are shrinking (revenue growth −55.3% latest (single-quarter readings) against +49.5% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 12.7%. The read is built from 11 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

31.9/100 — rank 7 of 8 in Infra - Engineering - General · 94% evidence confidence

EMS Ltd scores 31.9 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Infra - Engineering - General, ranking 7. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 7.2 + 13 + 5.9 + 5.8 = 31.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

EMS Ltd reported ₹121 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −55.3% year on year. Over 6 years it has compounded at 14.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹733 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹733 Cr.

EMS Ltd reported ₹121 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −55.3% year on year. Over 6 years it has compounded at 14.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹733 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹733 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹733 Cr (−24.1% on the year), capping 6 years at 14.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹121 Cr, −55.3% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −20.9% growth against the decade's 14.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −23.2% over the last 4 quarters against −3.9%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −50.5% vs −22.8%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 15.2% this quarter (−8.8 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

EMS Ltd's operating margin is 15.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −8.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 19.0% to 31.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

EMS Ltd's operating margin is 15.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −8.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 19.0% to 31.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.2%, −8.8 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 19.0%–31.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −8.8 pp year on year while gross margin went +110.5 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −87.8% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

EMS Ltd earned ₹5.7 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −87.8% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹91.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 4.0%. That is 4.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹46.9 Cr.

EMS Ltd earned ₹5.7 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −87.8% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹91.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 4.0%. That is 4.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹46.9 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹5.7 Cr, −87.8% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹91.0 Cr (−50.5%), and the 6-year compound rate is 4.0%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −55.3% and the margin −8.8 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −47.6% vs revenue −20.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: −23% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −23% of EMS Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹−15.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹91.0 Cr of profit. After ₹74.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−89.0 Cr was left as free cash. Cash resolution here is annual, because quarterly cash statements are not published.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−15.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹91.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−89.0 Cr after ₹74.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −23% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −23%: the cash cycle stretched 90 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 90 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: the 193-day cycle, in money terms.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

EMS Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 193 days in FY26, up from 103 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹129 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹733 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.0 Cr, so roughly ₹388 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 193 days (an asset-light business — no inventory to speak of) — for a full cycle of 193 days, looser than FY21's 103.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹733 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.0 Cr — so the 193-day loop keeps roughly ₹388 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹129 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹27.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹37.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 13% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −3.7 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

EMS Ltd earns a ROCE of 13% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −3.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 12.4% net margin on 0.55× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 13%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 12.4% net margin × 0.55× asset turns × 1.26× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.3% − 12.0% = a −3.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.15.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

EMS Ltd carries total debt of ₹154 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,058 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.15 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.09 in FY23 to 0.15 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹154 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,058 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.15. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.09 (FY23) to 0.15 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions cut 1.5 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions cut 1.5 points of EMS Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 0.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −0.7 points over the same window, to 0.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: −1.5 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%; Foreign institutions: −0.7 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 69.7%.

🚨 Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (−1.5 points), alongside foreign institutions (−0.7 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

EMS Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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