DCX Systems Ltd
DCXINDIADCX Systems Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. −31.1% in a year against EPS −119.8% — the market is paying now for delivery later.
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved −31.1% in a year while annual EPS moved −119.8% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.
The price is in a downtrend (52 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 99th percentile of its own 4-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read deteriorating — profit −101.4% year on year, and −48% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
DCX Systems Ltd trades at ₹187, in a downtrend and 52 weeks into that stage. That is −8.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 23% of a 52-week range of ₹160 to ₹279. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (5 weeks and counting).
Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 52 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹187 it trades −8.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 23% of its 52-week range (₹160–₹279).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 3.7 years the stock moved −39% while the NIFTY 500 moved +49% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (5 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 99th percentile of its own range.
Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.
DCX Systems Ltd trades at 169.8× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 49.2×, measured across 3.5 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 169.8× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 49.2× measured over 3.5 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −119.8% against a −31.1% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −12.2%/yr price move, ~−46.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+34.3 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
A quarterly PEG curve, which only the second data source carries, is not drawn on this page: its two data sources do not share enough overlapping reported history to be compared. A figure nobody could check is not used to price growth — the gap is a decision, not missing data.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
DCX Systems Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue and profit growth are shrinking (revenue growth −62.3% latest (single-quarter readings) against +60.9% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 1.0%. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.
🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.
A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −31.5% | −16.0% | +3.0% | — |
| Share price | −31.1% | −12.2% | — | — |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
29.2/100 — rank 23 of 24 in Aerospace & Defence - Equipments · 67% evidence confidence
DCX Systems Ltd scores 29.2 out of 100 against the 24 companies it is compared with in Aerospace & Defence - Equipments, ranking 23. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 8 + 7.8 + 10 + 3.4 = 29.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
DCX Systems Ltd reported ₹207 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −62.3% year on year. Over 5 years it has compounded at 3.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹743 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹743 Cr.
DCX Systems Ltd reported ₹207 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −62.3% year on year. Over 5 years it has compounded at 3.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹743 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹743 Cr.
FY26 revenue came in at ₹743 Cr (−31.5% on the year), capping 5 years at 3.0% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹207 Cr, −62.3% year on year.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −10.6% growth against the decade's 3.0% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −31.4% over the last 4 quarters against −27.7%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.
→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: −0.2% this quarter (−2.0 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
DCX Systems Ltd's operating margin is −0.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 6 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −2.0% to 7.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
DCX Systems Ltd's operating margin is −0.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 6 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −2.0% to 7.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is −0.2%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 6 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −2.0%–7.0%.
🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +5.9 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −101.4% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
DCX Systems Ltd posted a net loss of ₹0.3 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹8.0 Cr. That loss is 0.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹20.7 Cr. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.
DCX Systems Ltd posted a net loss of ₹0.3 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter. The full FY26 year was a loss of ₹8.0 Cr. That loss is 0.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹20.7 Cr. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.
Mar 26 profit was ₹−0.3 Cr, −101.4% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹−8.0 Cr (−120.5%).
🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −62.3% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −115.2% vs revenue −10.6%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: −48% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years −48% of DCX Systems Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹2.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹−8.0 Cr of profit. After ₹152 Cr of capital spending, ₹−150 Cr was left as free cash.
FY26: operating cash of ₹2.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹−8.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−150 Cr after ₹152 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −48% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
🚨 Why conversion sits at −48%: the cash cycle stretched 193 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.
Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 193 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: the 242-day cycle, in money terms.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
DCX Systems Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 242 days in FY26, up from 49 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹497 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹743 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹2.0 Cr, so roughly ₹493 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.
FY26: debtors at 66 days, inventory at 289 days — roughly 9.5 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 242 days, looser than FY21's 49.
The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 289 days to sell; customers pay about 66 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 113 days — netting out to the 242-day cycle.
In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹743 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹2.0 Cr — so the 242-day loop keeps roughly ₹493 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.
On the investment side: capital spending of ₹497 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹33.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.
The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 1% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −8.0 pp.
Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.⚠ unverified
DCX Systems Ltd earns a ROCE of 1% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −8.0 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is −1.1% net margin on 0.35× asset turns.
FY26 ROCE is 1%.
🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): −1.1% net margin × 0.35× asset turns × 1.39× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −0.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 4.0% − 12.0% = a −8.0 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.00.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.⚠ unverified
DCX Systems Ltd carries total debt of ₹3.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,513 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.00 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 2.89 in FY21 to 0.00 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.
Mar 26: total debt of ₹3.0 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,513 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.00. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 2.89 (FY21) to 0.00 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 7.6 points over 8 quarters.
Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.
Promoters cut 7.6 points of DCX Systems Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 52.2% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −6.2 points over the same window, to 2.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.
The register over the last two years — Promoters: −7.6 points over 8 quarters to 52.2%; Domestic institutions: −6.2 points over 8 quarters to 2.7%; Foreign institutions: +0.4 points over 8 quarters to 1.7%.
🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−7.6 points), alongside domestic institutions (−6.2 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
DCX Systems Ltd: the Z-score reads 4.54. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
Why it matters: a Z-score of 4.54 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 4.54.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCX Systems Ltd this page | 169.8× | ₹2,013 Cr | Deteriorating | |||
| Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd | 33.6× | ₹3.1L Cr | Consistent | |||
| Bharat Electronics Ltd | 48.8× | ₹3L Cr | Mixed | |||
| Bharat Dynamics Ltd | 108.0× | ₹45,564 Cr | Deteriorating | |||
| Data Patterns (India) Ltd | 104.0× | ₹25,666 Cr | Turning around | |||
| MTAR Technologies Ltd | 184.0× | ₹17,856 Cr | Improving | |||
| Astra Microwave Products Ltd | 89.2× | ₹17,217 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Zen Technologies Ltd | 87.9× | ₹15,970 Cr | Deteriorating | |||
| Azad Engineering Ltd | 119.0× | ₹15,751 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Aequs Ltd | — | ₹15,374 Cr | — | — | — | — |
| Apollo Micro Systems Ltd | 130.0× | ₹14,652 Cr | Mixed | |||
| BEML Ltd | 101.0× | ₹14,269 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Sigma Advanced System Ltd | 35.7× | ₹9,911 Cr | No read | |||
| Paras Defence and Space Technologies Ltd | 112.0× | ₹9,632 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Mishra Dhatu Nigam Ltd | 56.0× | ₹7,357 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Dynamatic Technologies Ltd | 142.0× | ₹7,102 Cr | Turning around | |||
| AXISCADES Technologies Ltd | 86.6× | ₹6,839 Cr | Mixed | |||
| AXISCADES Technologies Ltd | 82.5× | ₹6,520 Cr | Topping out | |||
| Avantel Ltd | 253.0× | ₹4,344 Cr | Deteriorating | |||
| Ideaforge Technology Ltd | — | ₹4,326 Cr | No read | |||
| Rossell Techsys Ltd | 164.0× | ₹3,707 Cr | No read | |||
| Sika Interplant Systems Ltd | 68.8× | ₹2,416 Cr | Mixed | |||
| NIBE Ltd | 414.0× | ₹2,332 Cr | Turning around | |||
| Jaykay Enterprises Ltd | 32.1× | ₹2,152 Cr | No read | |||
| Sika Interplant Systems Ltd | 49.4× | ₹1,813 Cr | Mixed | |||
| Vinyas Innovative Technologies Ltd | 51.9× | ₹1,602 Cr | No read |
Frequently asked questions
What is DCX Systems Ltd's share price today?
DCX Systems Ltd trades at ₹187, −31.1% over the past year. The company is valued at ₹2,013 Cr. The stock sits at 23% of its 52-week range of ₹160–₹279, −8.3% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a downtrend, 52 weeks in. — as of 24 July 2026.
What were DCX Systems Ltd's latest quarterly results?
DCX Systems Ltd reported revenue of ₹207 Cr and a net loss of ₹0.3 Cr for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue fell 62.3% and profit fell 101.4% year on year. Earnings per share were ₹−0.03. The operating margin was −0.2%, 2.0 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is DCX Systems Ltd's revenue?
DCX Systems Ltd reported revenue of ₹207 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter, −62.3% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was ₹743 Cr (−31.5%). Over the last 5 years revenue compounded at 3.0% a year. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is DCX Systems Ltd's profit?
DCX Systems Ltd earned ₹−0.3 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −101.4% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹−8.0 Cr. The operating margin ran −0.2% in the latest quarter. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is DCX Systems Ltd's market cap?
DCX Systems Ltd's market capitalisation is ₹2,013 Cr at a share price of ₹187. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is DCX Systems Ltd's P/E ratio?
DCX Systems Ltd trades at a P/E of 169.8×, at the 99th percentile of its own 4-year range, against a long-run median of 49.2×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 24 July 2026.
Does DCX Systems Ltd pay a dividend?
No — DCX Systems Ltd has recorded a dividend payout of 0% of profit in each of its last 6 reported fiscal years, so there is no payout history to quote. That is a reading of the filed annual statements, not an estimate. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is DCX Systems Ltd overvalued?
On its own history, DCX Systems Ltd looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 169.8× sits at the 99th percentile of its 4-year range (long-run median 49.2×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is DCX Systems Ltd growing?
Not right now — DCX Systems Ltd's latest numbers are shrinking: latest-quarter revenue −62.3% year on year, profit −101.4%, and the margin −2.0 pp at −0.2%. The earnings engine currently reads: deteriorating — as of 24 July 2026.
How is DCX Systems Ltd performing?
DCX Systems Ltd is in a downtrend, 52 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue fell 62.3% and profit fell 101.4% year on year. Against the NIFTY 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 5 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 24 July 2026.
What stage is DCX Systems Ltd in?
Deteriorating — revenue and profit growth are shrinking (revenue growth −62.3% latest (single-quarter readings) against +60.9% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 1.0%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth −62.3% latest, profit growth −101.4% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 24 July 2026.
Is DCX Systems Ltd in an uptrend?
No — the price is in a downtrend (week 52 of stage 4), trading −8.3% versus its 200-day average and at 23% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 24 July 2026.
Is DCX Systems Ltd beating the market?
Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view DCX Systems Ltd is currently behind the NIFTY 500 (5 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-24), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 3.7 years the stock moved −39% against the NIFTY 500's +49% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 24 July 2026.
Will DCX Systems Ltd's share price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for DCX Systems Ltd. What it measures instead: the share price is ₹187, the price is in a downtrend 52 weeks in. Its P/E of 169.8× sits at the 99th percentile of its own 4-year range. — as of 24 July 2026.
Who owns DCX Systems Ltd?
Promoters hold 52.2% of DCX Systems Ltd, foreign institutions 1.7%, domestic institutions 2.7% and the public 43.4% (latest quarter). The biggest move on the register over the last two years: Promoters cut 7.6 points over 8 quarters. — as of 24 July 2026.
Does DCX Systems Ltd have too much debt?
No — DCX Systems Ltd's debt-to-equity is 0.00, and operating profit covers the interest bill −6×. FY26 borrowings were ₹3.0 Cr against equity of ₹1,513 Cr. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 24 July 2026.
What is DCX Systems Ltd's capex?
DCX Systems Ltd spent ₹497 Cr on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was ₹152 Cr, with ₹0.0 Cr in capital work-in-progress — capacity paid for but not yet earning. — as of 24 July 2026.
What is DCX Systems Ltd's cash flow?
DCX Systems Ltd generated ₹2.0 Cr of operating cash flow in FY26 and ₹−150 Cr of free cash flow after ₹152 Cr of capital spending. Reported profit that year was ₹−8.0 Cr, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. Cash-flow resolution for India is annual. — as of 24 July 2026.
Is DCX Systems Ltd's profit real cash?
Not fully — over the last 3 fiscal years, −48% of DCX Systems Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was ₹2.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹−8.0 Cr. The cash then goes mostly into the working-capital cycle. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 24 July 2026.
How financially safe is DCX Systems Ltd?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 4.54 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 24 July 2026.
Where is DCX Systems Ltd in its business cycle?
DCX Systems Ltd's FY26 operating margin was −2.0%, against a 6-year band of −2.0%–7.0%: the low end of its own band, which is where recoveries start when they come. The latest quarter ran −0.2%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 24 July 2026.
What could break the DCX Systems Ltd story?
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved −31.1% in a year while annual EPS moved −119.8% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 24 July 2026.
Is DCX Systems Ltd a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: DCX Systems Ltd's price has outrun its earnings. −31.1% in a year against EPS −119.8% — the market is paying now for delivery later. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 24 July 2026.