Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd trades at ₹1,201, in a confirmed uptrend and 54 weeks into that stage. That is +23.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 95% of a 52-week range of ₹702 to ₹1,226. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 54 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹1,201 it trades +23.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 95% of its 52-week range (₹702–₹1,226).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +494% while the NIFTY 500 moved +272% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 34th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd trades at 4.3× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 34% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 5.3×, measured across 9.9 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 4.3× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 34% of the time, against a long-run median of 5.3× measured over 9.9 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +1,349.0% against a +54.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +54.8%/yr price move, ~+74.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−20.0 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +18.5%/yr price move, ~+18.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−0.3 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −92.2% at the trough to +1350.0%, a 3-quarter improving streak, ROCE lifting at 38.4%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

72.2/100 — rank 2 of 7 in Refineries · 74% evidence confidence

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd scores 72.2 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Refineries, ranking 2. Confirmed research leader: earnings, capital efficiency and relative strength agree. Move to management, catalyst and risk diligence.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 28.6 + 19 + 11.5 + 13.1 = 72.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd reported ₹27,369 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +84.8% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹63,640 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹76,196 Cr.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd reported ₹27,369 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +84.8% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.5% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹63,640 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹76,196 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹63,640 Cr (+7.9% on the year), capping 10 years at 9.5% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹27,369 Cr, +84.8% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +34.7% growth against the decade's 9.5% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +33.5% over the last 4 quarters against +5.3%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 6.0% this quarter (+5.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd's operating margin is 6.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −6.0% to 9.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd's operating margin is 6.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +5.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −6.0% to 9.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 6.0%, +5.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −6.0%–9.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +5.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +3.5 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit null in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd earned ₹1,031 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,103 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 15.1%. That is 3.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹40.0 Cr. 2 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd earned ₹1,031 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,103 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 15.1%. That is 3.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹40.0 Cr. 2 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,031 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹3,103 Cr (+1,350.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 15.1%.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 115% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 115% of Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹2,945 Cr of operating cash against ₹3,103 Cr of profit. After ₹605 Cr of capital spending, ₹2,340 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹2,945 Cr against reported profit of ₹3,103 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹2,340 Cr after ₹605 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 115% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 115%: the cash cycle tightened 25 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a 29-day cycle and ₹1,383 Cr of building.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 29 days in FY26, down from 54 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹1,383 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹63,640 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹174 Cr, so roughly ₹5,056 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 1 days, inventory at 53 days — roughly 1.7 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 29 days, tighter than FY21's 54.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 53 days to sell; customers pay about 1 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 25 days — netting out to the 29-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹63,640 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹174 Cr — so the 29-day loop keeps roughly ₹5,056 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,383 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,823 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹346 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 35% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +23.5 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd earns a ROCE of 35% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −26% in FY20. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +23.5 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 4.9% net margin on 3.18× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 35%, recovered from a FY20 trough of −26% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.9% net margin × 3.18× asset turns × 1.80× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 28.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 35.5% − 12.0% = a +23.5 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.18.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd carries total debt of ₹1,964 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹11,109 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.18 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 3.09 in FY22 to 0.18 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹1,964 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹11,109 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.18. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 3.09 (FY22) to 0.18 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Domestic institutions moved +0.2 points over the same window, to 1.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −0.8 points over 8 quarters to 15.0%; Domestic institutions: +0.2 points over 8 quarters to 1.0%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 67.3%.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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