Bank of Baroda

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Bank of Baroda trades at ₹247, in a downtrend and 3 weeks into that stage. That is −8.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 16% of a 52-week range of ₹233 to ₹322. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (3 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 3 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹247 it trades −8.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 16% of its 52-week range (₹233–₹322).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +86% while the NIFTY 500 moved +280% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (3 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-01) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/BV sits at the 40th percentile of its own range.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Bank of Baroda trades at 0.8× P/BV, mid-range by its own standards (40th percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 0.8×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 0.8× is mid-range by its own standards (40th percentile), against a long-run median of 0.8× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +0.9% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +24.7%/yr price move, ~+14.0%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+10.7 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +4.2%/yr price move, ~+5.0%/yr came from book-value growth and ~−0.8 pp from the multiple (roughly flat). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Bank of Baroda reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — profit and EPS growth are shrinking while ROE holds at 12.0% — falling growth against firm returns, so no single stage word fits yet. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

45.5/100 — rank 10 of 13 in Banks - PSU · 87% evidence confidence

Bank of Baroda scores 45.5 out of 100 against the 13 companies it is compared with in Banks - PSU, ranking 10. Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 6.9 + 11.6 + 16.8 + 10.2 = 45.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Bank of Baroda reported ₹35,115 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +6.8% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 11.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,34,298 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,36,547 Cr.

Bank of Baroda reported ₹35,115 Cr of income in the Jun 26 quarter, +6.8% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 11.4% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,34,298 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,36,547 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,34,298 Cr (+5.0% on the year), capping 10 years at 11.4% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹35,115 Cr, +6.8% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +4.9% growth against the decade's 11.4% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +4.9% over the last 4 quarters against +6.0%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −6.2% vs −2.0%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did the net margin hold as it scaled? Next: 5.2% this quarter (−5.5 pp YoY).

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Bank of Baroda's net margin is 5.2% in the Jun 26 quarter, −5.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −11.0% to 16.3%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Bank of Baroda's net margin is 5.2% in the Jun 26 quarter, −5.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −11.0% to 16.3%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's net margin is 5.2%, −5.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged −11.0%–16.3%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ The net margin slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −47.7% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Bank of Baroda earned ₹1,839 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −47.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹20,070 Cr. That is 5.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹3,517 Cr.

Bank of Baroda earned ₹1,839 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, −47.7% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹20,070 Cr. That is 5.2% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹3,517 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹1,839 Cr, −47.7% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹20,070 Cr (−3.8%).

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +6.8% and the margin −5.5 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −9.8% vs revenue +4.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit is up — how clean is the loan book behind it? Next: gross NPA is 2.04%, 2 quarters better in a row.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Bank of Baroda's gross NPA is 2.04% of the loan book in Dec 25, down from 2.43% a year ago. Net of provisions already set aside, 0.57% remains. That is the 2nd straight quarter of improvement. Across the 10 quarters held here the book has ranged 2.04% to 3.32%.

Dec 25: gross NPA at 2.04% and net NPA at 0.57%, against 2.43% / 0.59% a year ago. Over the 10 quarters we hold, the book's worst reading was 3.32% and its best is 2.04% — which is the current print. The ladder has now improved for 2 consecutive quarters.

The synthesis: profit growth at a bank is only as good as the book behind it, and this book is healing on a multi-quarter streak. A note on depth: quarterly provisioning detail is not in our numbers yet, so this ladder reads levels and trend, not the cost of the cleanup.

Why the ladder moved: recoveries, write-offs and slippages each play a part, and that split sits below what we hold — the numbers show the healing; the driver mix does not travel with them.

→ Behind a cleaner book — is the book itself still growing? Next: revenue grew +5.0% in FY26.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Bank of Baroda's revenue grew +5.0% in FY26 to ₹1,34,298 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +6.8% year on year. The net margin on that income is 5.2%, −5.5 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹1,34,298 Cr, +5.0% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +6.8% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 5.2% this quarter (−5.5 pp YoY) — growth with a narrowing margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

→ Does all of this actually earn its keep on equity? Next: ROE is 13%.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Bank of Baroda earns a return on equity of 13% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was −12% in FY16. On the asset side every ₹100 of the balance sheet earned about ₹0.93, which is the return before leverage is applied.

FY26 ROE came in at 13%, recovered from a FY16 trough of −12%. On assets, the latest reading is about 0.93% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly ₹0.93 a year. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.

Why: the ROE ladder shows the move; the deposit-cost and provisioning drivers behind it sit below what we hold.

→ Who owns this bank, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 2.6 points over 8 quarters.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 2.6 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 2.6 points of Bank of Baroda over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 18.3% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −1.3 points over the same window, to 10.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +2.6 points over 8 quarters to 18.3%; Foreign institutions: −1.3 points over 8 quarters to 10.1%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 64.0%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+2.6 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (−1.3 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Bank of Baroda: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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