Bajaj Finserv Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd trades at ₹1,854, in a downtrend and 18 weeks into that stage. That is −0.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 38% of a 52-week range of ₹1,664 to ₹2,160. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 4 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 18 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹1,854 it trades −0.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 38% of its 52-week range (₹1,664–₹2,160).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +1,026% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 4 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/BV sits at the 18th percentile of its own range.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd trades at 3.9× P/BV, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 18% of the time. Its long-run median P/BV is 4.8×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 3.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 18% of the time, against a long-run median of 4.8× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved −8.7% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +7.8%/yr price move, ~+16.6%/yr came from book-value growth and ~−8.8 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +22.5%/yr price move, ~+18.7%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+3.8 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

The PEG ratio and its quarterly curve, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 53% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Bajaj Finserv Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — the growth curves are steadily positive, but no return curve is held to confirm the Consistent bar. The read is built from 10 quarters across 2 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

55.3/100 — rank 6 of 18 in Finance - Holding Company · 67% evidence confidence

Bajaj Finserv Ltd scores 55.3 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Finance - Holding Company, ranking 6. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.4 + 17.6 + 9.1 + 11.2 = 55.3. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd reported ₹38,494 Cr of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.2% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 22.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,50,530 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,51,044 Cr.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd reported ₹38,494 Cr of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.2% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 22.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,50,530 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,51,044 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,50,530 Cr (+13.2% on the year), capping 10 years at 22.0% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹38,494 Cr, +5.2% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +13.2% growth against the decade's 22.0% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +12.9% over the last 4 quarters against +17.0%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +12.0% vs +12.3%/yr — stabilising.

→ Revenue grew — did the net margin hold as it scaled? Next: 13.6% this quarter (+0.6 pp YoY).

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd's net margin is 13.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.6 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 11.0% to 36.4%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd's net margin is 13.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.6 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 11.0% to 36.4%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's net margin is 13.6%, +0.6 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 11.0%–36.4%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ The net margin held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +9.9% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd earned ₹5,226 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +9.9% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹19,669 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 21.6%. That is 13.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹4,756 Cr.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd earned ₹5,226 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +9.9% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹19,669 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 21.6%. That is 13.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹4,756 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹5,226 Cr, +9.9% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹19,669 Cr (+12.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 21.6%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +5.2% and the margin +0.6 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +12.3% vs revenue +13.2%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

→ Profit is up — how clean is the loan book behind it? Next: we hold no quarterly loan-book numbers — the section says so plainly.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for Bajaj Finserv Ltd, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

→ Behind the profits — is the book itself still growing? Next: revenue grew +13.2% in FY26.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd's revenue grew +13.2% in FY26 to ₹1,50,530 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +5.2% year on year. The net margin on that income is 13.6%, +0.6 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹1,50,530 Cr, +13.2% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +5.2% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 13.6% this quarter (+0.6 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

→ Does all of this actually earn its keep on equity? Next: ROE is 13%.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers usually rate a lender: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys.

A clean annual return-on-equity ladder is not held for Bajaj Finserv Ltd. For an insurer especially the standard bank ratios are not the right lens, so this page does not force them onto the filings rather than estimating a series it cannot support. The revenue, margin and ownership sections above and below are the reads this page stands behind.

We do not hold a clean annual return-on-equity series for Bajaj Finserv Ltd — for an insurer especially, the standard bank ratios are not the right lens, so this page does not force them. The revenue, margin and ownership sections above and below are the reads we stand behind.

The quarterly return-on-equity and return-on-assets curves, which only the second data source carries, are not drawn on this page: its two data sources disagree by up to 53% on reported income across 14 comparable periods. A figure two sources cannot agree on is not drawn — the gap is a decision, not missing data.

→ Who owns Bajaj Finserv Ltd, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 4.5 points over 8 quarters.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 4.5 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 4.5 points of Bajaj Finserv Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 12.1% of the company. Promoters moved −1.9 points over the same window, to 58.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +4.5 points over 8 quarters to 12.1%; Promoters: −1.9 points over 8 quarters to 58.7%; Foreign institutions: −1.5 points over 8 quarters to 6.9%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −1.5 points against domestic institutions +4.5 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −1.9 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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