AAVAS Financiers Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd trades at ₹1,481, in a downtrend and 46 weeks into that stage. That is +2.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 62% of a 52-week range of ₹1,098 to ₹1,712. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 14 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 46 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹1,481 it trades +2.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 62% of its 52-week range (₹1,098–₹1,712).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.8 years the stock moved +90% while the NIFTY 500 moved +166% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 14 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/BV sits at the 4th percentile of its own range.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd trades at 2.9× P/BV, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 4% of the time. Its long-run median P/BV is 4.8×, measured across 7.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 2.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 4% of the time, against a long-run median of 4.8× measured over 7.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved −22.2% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the −12.4%/yr price move, ~+9.3%/yr came from book-value growth and ~−21.7 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

AAVAS Financiers Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue and profit growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROE at 13.0% and holding. The read is built from 10 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

49.0/100 — rank 10 of 13 in Finance - Housing · 89% evidence confidence

AAVAS Financiers Ltd scores 49.0 out of 100 against the 13 companies it is compared with in Finance - Housing, ranking 10. Strong business, demanding price: keep it on the quality list, but require either earnings upgrades or valuation compression.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.7 + 17.3 + 6.8 + 5.2 = 49. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd reported ₹546 Cr of income in the Mar 24 quarter, +21.3% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 26.4% a year. The last full year, FY24, came in at ₹2,018 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,018 Cr.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd reported ₹546 Cr of income in the Mar 24 quarter, +21.3% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 26.4% a year. The last full year, FY24, came in at ₹2,018 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹2,018 Cr.

FY24 revenue came in at ₹2,018 Cr (+25.4% on the year), capping 6 years at 26.4% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 24) printed ₹546 Cr, +21.3% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +25.7% growth against the decade's 26.4% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +25.4% over the last 4 quarters against +24.4%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +14.2% vs +17.6%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did the net margin hold as it scaled? Next: 26.0% this quarter (−2.2 pp YoY).

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd's net margin is 26.0% in the Mar 24 quarter, −2.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 18.8% to 27.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd's net margin is 26.0% in the Mar 24 quarter, −2.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 18.8% to 27.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's net margin is 26.0%, −2.2 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 18.8%–27.6%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ The net margin slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +11.8% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd earned ₹142 Cr of net profit in the Mar 24 quarter, +11.8% year on year. It is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY24 profit was ₹491 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 32.0%. That is 26.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹127 Cr.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd earned ₹142 Cr of net profit in the Mar 24 quarter, +11.8% year on year. It is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY24 profit was ₹491 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 32.0%. That is 26.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹127 Cr.

Mar 24 profit was ₹142 Cr, +11.8% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY24 printed ₹491 Cr (+14.2%), and the 6-year compound rate is 32.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +21.3% and the margin −2.2 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +14.7% vs revenue +25.7%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit is up — how clean is the loan book behind it? Next: gross NPA is 0.94%.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd's gross NPA is 0.94% of the loan book in Mar 24. Net of provisions already set aside, 0.67% remains. Across the 2 quarters held here the book has ranged 0.94% to 1.00%. Falling NPAs are a loan book healing; rising NPAs are damage arriving.

Mar 24: gross NPA at 0.94% and net NPA at 0.67%. Over the 2 quarters we hold, the book's worst reading was 1.00% and its best is 0.94% — which is the current print.

The synthesis: profit growth at a bank is only as good as the book behind it, and this book is not yet on a clear healing streak. A note on depth: quarterly provisioning detail is not in our numbers yet, so this ladder reads levels and trend, not the cost of the cleanup.

Why the ladder moved: recoveries, write-offs and slippages each play a part, and that split sits below what we hold — the numbers show the healing; the driver mix does not travel with them.

→ Behind a cleaner book — is the book itself still growing? Next: revenue grew +25.4% in FY24.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd's revenue grew +25.4% in FY24 to ₹2,018 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +21.3% year on year. The net margin on that income is 26.0%, −2.2 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY24 revenue was ₹2,018 Cr, +25.4% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +21.3% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 26.0% this quarter (−2.2 pp YoY) — growth with a narrowing margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

→ Does all of this actually earn its keep on equity? Next: ROE is 14%.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd earns a return on equity of 14% in FY24. Its trough over the ladder below was 8% in FY18. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY24 ROE came in at 14%, recovered from a FY18 trough of 8%. On assets, the latest reading is about null% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly null a year. That clears the bar a bank must beat for its book value to compound.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 32.0% a year over 6 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

→ Who owns this bank, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters added 22.4 points over 8 quarters.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters added 22.4 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters added 22.4 points of AAVAS Financiers Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 48.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −19.6 points over the same window, to 16.3%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: +22.4 points over 8 quarters to 48.9%; Foreign institutions: −19.6 points over 8 quarters to 16.3%; Domestic institutions: −2.2 points over 8 quarters to 22.1%.

Why the register moved: promoters drove it (+22.4 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (−19.6 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

AAVAS Financiers Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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