Aditya Infotech Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Aditya Infotech Ltd trades at ₹3,355, in a confirmed uptrend and 57 weeks into that stage. That is +23.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 81% of a 52-week range of ₹1,387 to ₹3,826. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (1 week and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 57 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹3,355 it trades +23.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 81% of its 52-week range (₹1,387–₹3,826).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.1 years the stock moved +208% while the NIFTY 500 moved +1% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (1 week and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-09-11) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

Story check

Aditya Infotech Ltd's story is not scored yet against the markers our research file set on 22 August 2026. Where it sits in its own cycle: EARNINGS_ACCELERATION. Our fortnightly research layers last read it on 22 August 2026.

Our read, 22 August 2026. Market-share consolidation from 31.4% to 43.3% driven by regulatory STQC exclusion of Chinese vendors, shifting product mix to 79% IP cameras, and backward integration expanding operating margin from 8% to 15%.

From the numbers. Valuation multiples reflect limited post-IPO trading history. Current PE of 113.15 is near the 80th percentile of available history, while PB stands at 21.9. Multiples are high on an absolute basis, but earnings…

From the price. Price stage 2, week 57 — above its 200-day line.

From the research. Market-share consolidation from 31.4% to 43.3% driven by regulatory STQC exclusion of Chinese vendors, shifting product mix to 79% IP cameras, and backward integration expanding operating margin from 8% to 15%.

🚨 Where they disagree. Valuation multiples reflect limited post-IPO trading history. Current PE of 113.15 is near the 80th percentile of available history, while PB stands at 21.9. Multiples are high on an absolute basis, but earnings expansion has been rapid: EPS expanded from 2.99 rupees in Q1 FY26 to 12.07 rupees in Q1 FY27. Institutional ownership expanded with FII holding increasing from 4.44% in Sep 2025 to 6.35% in Jun 2026, while DII holding reached 13.61%. The emerging opportunity classification reflects earnings acceleration outpacing multiple changes during market-share consolidation.

What is proven. Market-share consolidation from 31.4% to 43.3% driven by regulatory STQC exclusion of Chinese vendors, shifting product mix to 79% IP cameras, and backward integration expanding operating margin from 8% to 15%.

What is not proven yet. Reversal of STQC regulatory exclusion allowing Chinese competitors unhindered market re-entry, or inability to pass through semiconductor component inflation leading to operating margin contraction below 11%.

🚨 What would change our mind. Reversal of STQC regulatory exclusion allowing Chinese competitors unhindered market re-entry, or inability to pass through semiconductor component inflation leading to operating margin contraction below 11%.

🚨 Layer 1 read, 22 August 2026 — DROP. Real, young profit surge in CCTV — but the cash sits in chip inventory and the price assumes perfect delivery. Sales nearly doubled last quarter to 1,402 crore rupees and the profit margin went from 8.2% to 14.8%, because a government security-certification rule pushed uncertified Chinese cameras out of the market and the company's own mix moved to dearer network cameras. That part is genuine and still early. What holds me back is that over three years the business generated MINUS 140 crore of actual cash while reporting 834 crore of profit — the money is tied up in chips bought up to three quarters early — and the shares trade at 86 times earnings, so any slip against the 6,000-6,500 crore FY27 target is expensive.

What would change Layer 1’s mind. Q2 FY27 operating margin printing below 14% — meaning the roughly 25% cumulative FY27 price increases failed to cover chipset and DDR memory inflation — or a THIRD deferral of the Kadapa housing plant. Either breaks the margin-expansion leg that an 86x multiple is paying for. Sharpened from the timeline's own condition (margin below 11%), which is too far away to be a useful trigger at this price.

The test written in advance. Reversal of STQC regulatory exclusion allowing Chinese competitors unhindered market re-entry, or inability to pass through semiconductor component inflation leading to operating margin contraction below 11%. — the thesis as written as stated by the next result.

What the company does. Market share reached 43.3% in FY26 as government STQC cybersecurity certification mandates excluded uncertified Chinese competitors from domestic procurement. Higher-value IP camera mix expanded to 79% of CP PLUS volume, lifting quarterly operating profit margin to 15% in Q1 FY27 from 8% in Q1 FY26. Forward revenue guidance of 6,000 to 6,500 crore rupees with 14% to 15% operating margin provides earnings visibility, tempered by rich valuation at 86.1 PE and repeated timeline deferrals on backward integration.

🚨 What the surface reading misses. The surface reading is: Operating margin expanded to 15% in Q1 FY27, showing 604 bps YoY profitability expansion. The research reads it further: Q1 FY27 revenue reached 1,402 crore rupees, operating profit 204 crore rupees, operating margin 15%, net profit 142 crore rupees, and EPS 12.07 rupees.

Lever 5 · Regulatory approval — BUILDING. Mandatory cybersecurity certifications eliminate Chinese hardware imports, expanding CP PLUS market share to 43.3%. What proves it keeps working: STQC Regulatory Exclusivity and Market Share Consolidation. It stops working if Diplomatic changes or policy revisions ease STQC certification rules for Chinese surveillance vendors.

Lever 2 · Value-added mix — BUILDING. IP cameras expanded to 79% of brand revenue, expanding unit realization and operating margin. What proves it keeps working: Product Mix Shift to High-ASP Network IP Cameras. It stops working if Channel saturation in IP cameras forces pricing discounting or consumer demand shifts back to lower-tier analog systems.

Sources: our stock research file (22 August 2026) · quarterly results through Jun 26 · the company’s own earnings calls. The story check is re-scored every results season; the record below never changes.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Aditya Infotech Ltd reported ₹1,402 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +89.5% year on year. That is the 5th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 6 years it has compounded at 22.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹4,221 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹4,883 Cr.

Why this happened. Government STQC norms enforce trusted-source mandates across public infrastructure and commercial surveillance. CP PLUS expanded market share to 43.3% in FY26 as uncertified competitors exited the addressable market.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹4,221 Cr (+35.6% on the year), capping 6 years at 22.7% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹1,402 Cr, +89.5% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +52.4% growth against the decade's 22.7% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Aditya Infotech Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +7.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.6% to 13.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Why this happened. Adoption of networked surveillance lifted IP camera share to 79% of the CP PLUS portfolio in Q1 FY27 from 65% in Q2 FY26. Network cameras carry higher realization, driving operating margin from 8% to 15%.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.0%, +7.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.6%–13.0%, and FY26's 13.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +6.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +8.1 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Aditya Infotech Ltd earned ₹142 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +330.3% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹368 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 66.9%. That is 10.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹33.0 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹142 Cr, +330.3% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹368 Cr (+4.8%), and the 6-year compound rate is 66.9%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +89.5% and the margin +7.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +151.9% vs revenue +52.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −17% of Aditya Infotech Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹13.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹368 Cr of profit. After ₹183 Cr of capital spending, ₹−170 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹13.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹368 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−170 Cr after ₹183 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −17% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −17%: the cash cycle stretched 34 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 34 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Aditya Infotech Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 61 days in FY26, up from 27 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹928 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹4,221 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹11.6 Cr, so roughly ₹705 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 121 days, inventory at 134 days — roughly 4.4 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 61 days, looser than FY21's 27.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 134 days to sell; customers pay about 121 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 194 days — netting out to the 61-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹4,221 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹11.6 Cr — so the 61-day loop keeps roughly ₹705 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹928 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹103 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹84.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Aditya Infotech Ltd earns a ROCE of 29% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 16% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +15.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 8.7% net margin on 1.06× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 29%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 16% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 8.7% net margin × 1.06× asset turns × 2.13× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 19.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 27.6% − 12.0% = a +15.6 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Aditya Infotech Ltd carries total debt of ₹180 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,877 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.10 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.59 in FY25 to 0.10 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹180 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹1,877 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.10. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.59 (FY25) to 0.10 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Aditya Infotech Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — .

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Aditya Infotech Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Aditya Infotech Ltd trades at 83.2× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 22% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 95.0×, measured across 1.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 83.2× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 22% of the time, against a long-run median of 95.0× measured over 1.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −2.4% against a +139.1% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Aditya Infotech Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 5 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

4-Factor Sector Score

70.7/100 — rank 2 of 2 in CCTV Camera · 84% evidence confidence

Aditya Infotech Ltd scores 70.7 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in CCTV Camera, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 35 + 18.7 + 9 + 8 = 70.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Said versus delivered

What Aditya Infotech Ltd's management promised, set against what actually arrived — 4 tracked promises on the record. Read straight from the company’s own earnings calls. A promise that slipped stays on this page after it is met.

Capacity Doubling Timeline Extended · 13 August 2026. The May 2026 call described doubling production capacity by FY28 and within the next two years. The latest call now describes almost doubling capacity over the next three years, extending the stated timeline without explaining the change.

Localization Target Reduced Versus Earlier Commitment · 13 August 2026. In November 2025, management expected more than half of the bill of materials to be localized within 12 to 24 months. The latest call instead targets only 40% domestic content, implying a materially lower localization outcome without explaining the change in ambition.

Housing Plant Phase-One Timeline Appears Delayed · 13 August 2026. The May 2026 call committed to Phase-1 of the housing plant becoming operational in Q2 FY27, with Phase-2 scheduled for Q4 FY27. The latest call instead says the housing and enclosure expansion is expected to become operational in Q3, which appears to move the first operational milestone back by one quarter without clarification on whether this refers to a different phase.

Middle East Supply-Chain Risk Assessment Reversed · 13 August 2026. In May 2026, management said the Middle East conflict had sharply increased insurance and freight costs and was adding pressure to the supply chain. In the latest call, management said the crisis had caused no supply-chain impact apart from forex, although freight and logistics costs were separately acknowledged as affected; this materially changes the risk narrative without explaining what improved.

Every quote above is taken word for word from the company’s own earnings calls.

Frequently asked questions