In , NOCIL Ltd (Petrochem - Polymers) is outperforming Nifty 500 with +28.0% relative strength. Fundamentals: Weak. On a 4-week streak.
Weekly presence in the outperformers list. Green = beating Nifty 500 by 10%+ that week.
Based on Q3 FY26 earnings • Updated Apr 19, 2026
What: Anti-dumping investigation: 1.5 to 2 months
“So as per the protocol and the statute, they have taken a 3-month extension... we hope that in the next 1.5, 2 months, they should conclude the findings.”
What: Margin improvement: 150 bps p.a.
Impact: 150 bps annual margin expansion
“we expect at least on an annual basis, an improvement of 150 basis points plus or minus on an annual basis.”
What: U.S. Volume Recovery: 50% of lost volume
“But the U.S. tariffs, clearly, we see some of the volumes coming back in a 2- to 3-month horizon; whatever we had kind of lost, we expect that to come back.”
What: Volume contribution: 10-12%
Impact: 10-12% volume addition
“Eventually, surely, we expect these products should give us at least about 10% to 12% compared to current volumes, at least.”
What: India-EU FTA: Calendar year '27
“Going forward, with the tariff situation, surely the India-EU FTA is only expected to come into play in calendar year '27 roughly.”
What: EBITDA Margin of 8.5%
“The operating EBITDA for Q3 FY '26 stood at Rs.27 crores as against Rs.22 crores recorded in Q2 FY '26. The EBITDA margin stood at 8.5% in Q3 FY '26.”
Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary
Trigger: Heightened competitive pricing pressure from imports.
Management view: Filed anti-dumping petitions; investigations are underway with findings expected in 1.5-2 months.
Monitor: regulatory
Trigger: U.S. tariffs led to uncertainty and cautious customer behavior.
Management view: Monitoring tariff revisions; expecting volume recovery in 2-3 months.
Monitor: geopolitical
Trigger: Overall gradual increase happening since the beginning of the year.
Management view: Looking to pass on price increases as they are gradual.
Monitor: commodity
Key quotes from recent conference calls
“I think clearly the plan was to grow much more stronger in the year. And -- but I'm quite positive that we should stay positive by the end of the financial year. [Previous Volume Growth guidance]”
“Eventually, surely, we expect these products should give us at least about 10% to 12% compared to current volumes, at least. [Initiative: New Product Commercialization]”
“This moderation was primarily attributed to lower price realizations influenced by competitive pricing pressures, including dumping from imports. [Risk (regulatory): HIGH]”
“However, volumes in the international markets were dampened due to the seasonal effect and U.S. tariff issues. [Risk (geopolitical): MEDIUM]”
Headline numbers from the latest earnings call
Revenue
₹316 Cr
Why: Moderation was primarily attributed to lower price realizations influenced by competitive pricing pressures, including dumping from imports.
Revenue declined sequentially despite volume growth due to pricing pressure.
EBITDA
₹27 Cr
Why: Improvement driven by cost initiatives and operational efficiency measures despite lower revenues.
EBITDA margins expanded sequentially from 7% to 8.5%.
PAT
₹9 Cr
Why: Impacted by lower PBT and the absence of the one-time deferred tax credit seen in the previous year.
PAT declined sequentially due to lower PBT of ₹13 Cr vs ₹19 Cr in Q2.
Other Highlights
• Domestic volumes witnessed high single-digit growth driven by GST 2.0 demand.
• Conversion cost savings of ₹23 Cr achieved in 9M FY26.
• CII Industry Academia Partnership Award 2025 won in diamond category.
Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change
Domestic Market Share
40%
Why: Maintained in the 38-40% range despite competitive pressures.
Import Share in Domestic Market
60%
Why: Includes both finished goods and intermediates supplied by competitors.
Indian Rubber Chemical Market Size
85,000 tons
Why: Based on natural and synthetic rubber consumption barometers.
TDQ Capacity Expansion
20%
Why: Brownfield expansion at Dahej facility.
Conversion Cost Savings (9M)
₹23 Cr
Why: Driven by working capital control, utility efficiency, and freight rate negotiations.
Capacity Utilisation
65%
Why: Impacted by inability to load volumes due to intense competition and weak global sentiment.
Latex Segment Utilisation
60%
Why: Lower compared to peak COVID levels; currently 30% down from peak.
Export Volume Mix
33.3%
Why: Ratio of roughly two-third domestic and one-third exports.
Forward-looking targets from management for Next 2-4 years
OPM Guidance
1.5–1.5%
Capex Plan
₹250 Cr
Annual improvement target
₹250 Cr
TDQ antioxidant expansion at Dahej
FY26 growth target
Guidance Changes
Volume Growth FY26: Positive → 3% to 4%
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -3% | -7% | Stable |
| PAT (Net Profit) | -19% | -28% | Stable |
| OPM | 6.0% | -400 bps | Volatile |
The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 19, 2026.
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
NOCIL Ltd's latest quarterly results (Mar 2026) show
NOCIL Ltd's profit is declining with an stable trend.
NOCIL Ltd's revenue growth trend is stable.
NOCIL Ltd's operating margin is volatile.
NOCIL Ltd's long-term compounding rates
NOCIL Ltd's earnings growth is stable with improving on a sequential basis.
NOCIL Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance
NOCIL Ltd appears significantly overvalued based on our fair value analysis.
NOCIL Ltd's current PE ratio is 51.2x.
NOCIL Ltd's current PE is 51.2x.
NOCIL Ltd's price-to-book ratio is 1.7x.
NOCIL Ltd is rated Weak with a fundamental score of 37.59/100. This score is calculated from objective financial metrics
NOCIL Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of N/A.
NOCIL Ltd's return ratios over recent years
NOCIL Ltd's operating cash flow is positive (FY2026).
NOCIL Ltd's current dividend yield is 1.10%.
NOCIL Ltd's shareholding pattern (Mar 2026)
NOCIL Ltd's promoter holding has remained stable recently.
NOCIL Ltd has been outperforming Nifty 500 for 4 consecutive weeks, indicating building momentum.
NOCIL Ltd is an established outperformer with 4 weeks of consecutive Nifty 500 outperformance.
NOCIL Ltd has 6 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
NOCIL Ltd has 3 key risks worth monitoring
In Q3 FY26, NOCIL Ltd's management highlighted
NOCIL Ltd's management has provided the following forward guidance for Next 2-4 years
NOCIL Ltd's most important sub-sector-specific KPIs from the latest concall
Based on quantitative research signals, here is why NOCIL Ltd may be worth studying
NOCIL Ltd investment thesis summary:
NOCIL Ltd's forward outlook based on current data signals
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data and conference call transcripts. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.
