Waste Connections, Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Waste Connections, Inc. trades at $169, losing momentum at the top and 6 weeks into that stage. That is +1.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 52% of a 52-week range of $149 to $188. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is losing momentum at the top — week 6 of stage 3. At $169 it trades +1.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 52% of its 52-week range ($149–$188).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +246% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 13th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Waste Connections, Inc. trades at 40.9× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 13% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 50.4×, measured across 4.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 40.9× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 13% of the time, against a long-run median of 50.4× measured over 4.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +74.5% against a −9.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +6.2%/yr price move, ~+8.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.9 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Waste Connections, Inc. reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −26.4% at the trough to +68.3% off a 2-quarter-old trough, ROCE lifting at 8.9%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

50.2/100 — rank 1 of 12 in Waste Management · 59% evidence confidence

Waste Connections, Inc. scores 50.2 out of 100 against the 12 companies it is compared with in Waste Management, ranking 1. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.4 + 12.4 + 10.2 + 12.2 = 50.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Waste Connections, Inc. reported $2.4 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +6.3% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 11.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $9.5 B. The last four reported quarters add to $9.6 B.

Waste Connections, Inc. reported $2.4 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +6.3% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 11.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $9.5 B. The last four reported quarters add to $9.6 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $9.5 B (+6.2% on the year), capping 4 years at 11.4% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $2.4 B, +6.3% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.9% growth against the decade's 11.4% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +5.8% over the last 4 quarters against +8.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +68.3% vs +15.1%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 15.2% this quarter (−2.3 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Waste Connections, Inc.'s operating margin is 15.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.3 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 18.1%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Waste Connections, Inc.'s operating margin is 15.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.3 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0% to 18.1%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.2%, −2.3 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.0%–18.1%, and FY25's 18.1% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.4 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −8.3% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Waste Connections, Inc. earned $0.2 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −8.3% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $1.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is 14.9%. That is 9.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.2 B. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Waste Connections, Inc. earned $0.2 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −8.3% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $1.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is 14.9%. That is 9.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.2 B. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was $0.2 B, −8.3% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $1.1 B (+74.2%), and the 4-year compound rate is 14.9%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +6.3% and the margin −2.3 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −3.7% vs revenue +5.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 275% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 275% of Waste Connections, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $2.4 B of operating cash against $1.1 B of profit. After $1.2 B of capital spending, $1.2 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $2.4 B against reported profit of $1.1 B, leaving free cash of $1.2 B after $1.2 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 275% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $3.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Waste Connections, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $3.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 10.6% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $3.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 13% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +1.9 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Waste Connections, Inc. earns a ROE of 13% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.9 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 11.4% net margin on 0.45× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 13%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 11.4% net margin × 0.45× asset turns × 2.56× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.1% − 6.2% = a +1.9 pp spread. The 6.2% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 1.22.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

Waste Connections, Inc. paid $1.33 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 11.1% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.35 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $169 that is a trailing yield of 0.79%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

Waste Connections, Inc. paid $1.33 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 11.1% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.35 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $169 that is a trailing yield of 0.79%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

Waste Connections, Inc. paid $1.33 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.35 for Mar 26. That is up 11.1% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $169 the trailing twelve months work out to 0.79% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.

→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Waste Connections, Inc. carries total debt of $9.6 B against shareholder equity of $7.9 B as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.22. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.75 in FY21 to 1.11 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Jun 26: total debt of $9.6 B against shareholder equity of $7.9 B — a debt-to-equity of 1.22. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.75 (FY21) to 1.11 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 1.2% of the float.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

1.2% of Waste Connections, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — the crowd is not positioned against this stock. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 1.9 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 1.2% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 1.9 days to buy those positions back. The crowd is not positioned against this stock. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Waste Connections, Inc.: the Z-score reads 3.00. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.00 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.00.

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