Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd trades at ₹156, in a confirmed uptrend and 5 weeks into that stage. That is +7.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 68% of a 52-week range of ₹123 to ₹172. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 15 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 5 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹156 it trades +7.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 68% of its 52-week range (₹123–₹172).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.0 years the stock moved +1,900% while the NIFTY 500 moved +159% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 15 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 18th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd trades at 31.5× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 18% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 51.8×, measured across 3.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 31.5× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 18% of the time, against a long-run median of 51.8× measured over 3.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +55.5% against a +6.7% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +92.1%/yr price move, ~+137.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−45.6 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: revenue growth has eased from +135.9% at its peak to +79.3% but is still expanding, ROCE lifting at 19.7%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

66.8/100 — rank 1 of 2 in FMCG - Coffee · 91% evidence confidence

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd scores 66.8 out of 100 against the 2 companies it is compared with in FMCG - Coffee, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 25.6 + 17.6 + 15.6 + 8 = 66.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd reported ₹165 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +57.1% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹553 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹554 Cr.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd reported ₹165 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +57.1% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹553 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹554 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹553 Cr (+79.0% on the year). The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹165 Cr, +57.1% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +79.3% over the last 4 quarters against +105.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +75.6% vs +144.9%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 18.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's operating margin is 18.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −12.0% to 71.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's operating margin is 18.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −12.0% to 71.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 18.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −12.0%–71.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.5 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +31.3% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd earned ₹21.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +31.3% year on year. It is the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹72.0 Cr. That is 12.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹16.0 Cr.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd earned ₹21.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +31.3% year on year. It is the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹72.0 Cr. That is 12.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹16.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹21.0 Cr, +31.3% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹72.0 Cr (+80.0%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +57.1% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +98.7% vs revenue +87.4%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: −35% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −35% of Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹15.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹72.0 Cr of profit. After ₹160 Cr of capital spending, ₹−145 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹15.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹72.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−145 Cr after ₹160 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −35% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −35%: the cash cycle tightened 343 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 8.1× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹171 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 178 days in FY26, down from 521 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹171 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹553 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.5 Cr, so roughly ₹270 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 88 days, inventory at 94 days — roughly 3.1 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 178 days, tighter than FY21's 521.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 94 days to sell; customers pay about 88 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 3 days — netting out to the 178-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹553 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.5 Cr — so the 178-day loop keeps roughly ₹270 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹171 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹21.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹0.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 18% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +1.7 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 0% in FY15. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 13.0% net margin on 0.76× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY15 trough of 0% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 13.0% net margin × 0.76× asset turns × 1.27× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 12.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 13.7% − 12.0% = a +1.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.22.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd carries total debt of ₹124 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹569 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.22 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.05 in FY22 to 0.22 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹124 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹569 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.22. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.05 (FY22) to 0.22 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 9.6 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 9.6 points of Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 9.6% of the company. Promoters moved −5.9 points over the same window, to 34.6%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +9.6 points over 8 quarters to 9.6%; Promoters: −5.9 points over 8 quarters to 34.6%; Foreign institutions: +3.1 points over 8 quarters to 5.4%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+9.6 points), absorbed on the other side by promoters (−5.9 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd: the Z-score reads 9.97. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 9.97 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 9.97.

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