Vedanta Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Vedanta Ltd trades at ₹253, in a confirmed uptrend and 56 weeks into that stage. That is +0.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 48% of a 52-week range of ₹161 to ₹353. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (4 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 56 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹253 it trades +0.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 48% of its 52-week range (₹161–₹353).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +252% while the NIFTY 500 moved +280% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-25) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 75th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Vedanta Ltd trades at 6.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (75th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 3.2×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 6.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (75th percentile), against a long-run median of 3.2× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +16.0% against a +56.9% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +20.7%/yr price move, ~+6.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+14.3 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +15.7%/yr price move, ~−0.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+16.4 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Vedanta Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +113.4% at its peak to +22.2% but is still expanding, ROCE holding at 16.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

63.2/100 — rank 2 of 13 in Mining/Minerals · 93% evidence confidence

Vedanta Ltd scores 63.2 out of 100 against the 13 companies it is compared with in Mining/Minerals, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 18.6 + 15.7 + 15.6 + 13.3 = 63.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Vedanta Ltd reported ₹24,609 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +47.5% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 2.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹78,437 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,02,517 Cr.

Vedanta Ltd reported ₹24,609 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +47.5% year on year. That is the 2nd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 2.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹78,437 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,02,517 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹78,437 Cr (+25.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 2.0% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹24,609 Cr, +47.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +7.0% growth against the decade's 2.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −4.3% over the last 4 quarters against −15.5%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +22.2% vs +82.5%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 31.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Vedanta Ltd's operating margin is 31.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −29.0% to 34.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Vedanta Ltd's operating margin is 31.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −29.0% to 34.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 31.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −29.0%–34.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.1 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +88.5% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Vedanta Ltd earned ₹9,352 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +88.5% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹25,096 Cr. That is 38.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹4,961 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Vedanta Ltd earned ₹9,352 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +88.5% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹25,096 Cr. That is 38.0% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹4,961 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹9,352 Cr, +88.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹25,096 Cr (+22.2%).

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +47.5% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +24.6% vs revenue +7.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 216% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 216% of Vedanta Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹39,499 Cr of operating cash against ₹25,096 Cr of profit. After ₹−87,912 Cr of capital spending, ₹1,27,411 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹39,499 Cr against reported profit of ₹25,096 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹1,27,411 Cr after ₹−87,912 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 216% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 216%: the cash cycle stretched 61 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a −16-day cycle and ₹−54,428 Cr of building.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Vedanta Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −16 days in FY26, up from −77 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹−54,428 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹78,437 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹215 Cr, so roughly ₹−3,438 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 6 days, inventory at 66 days — roughly 2.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −16 days, looser than FY21's −77.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 66 days to sell; customers pay about 6 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 88 days — netting out to the −16-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹78,437 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹215 Cr — so the −16-day loop keeps roughly ₹−3,438 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹−54,428 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹19,766 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹10,531 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 16% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +0.2 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Vedanta Ltd earns a ROCE of 16% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −14% in FY16. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +0.2 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 32.0% net margin on 0.34× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 16%, recovered from a FY16 trough of −14% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 32.0% net margin × 0.34× asset turns × 4.68× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 50.9% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 12.2% − 12.0% = a +0.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.66.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Vedanta Ltd carries total debt of ₹32,947 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹68,577 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.48. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.78 in FY22 to 0.48 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹32,947 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹68,577 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.48. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.78 (FY22) to 0.48 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions added 5.5 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 5.5 points of Vedanta Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 15.8% of the company. Promoters moved −4.6 points over the same window, to 54.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +5.5 points over 8 quarters to 15.8%; Promoters: −4.6 points over 8 quarters to 54.7%; Domestic institutions: −3.9 points over 8 quarters to 10.8%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions +5.5 points against domestic institutions −3.9 points over 8 quarters, with promoters −4.6 points — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Vedanta Ltd: the Z-score reads 1.49. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits inside the distress zone. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

🚨 Why it matters: a Z-score of 1.49 is inside the distress zone — the balance sheet is a real risk, not a detail.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 1.49.

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