Tencent Music Entertainment Group

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group trades at $9.5, in a downtrend and 11 weeks into that stage. That is −32.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 7% of a 52-week range of $8 to $26. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 11 of stage 4. At $9.5 it trades −32.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 7% of its 52-week range ($8–$26).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 7.6 years the stock moved −26% while the S&P 500 moved +184% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group trades at 11.6× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 11.6× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +67.9% against a −55.3% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +10.1%/yr price move, ~+25.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−14.9 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Tencent Music Entertainment Group reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 13.7% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — Tencent Music Entertainment Group is not among the largest members shown in this industry comparison for Internet Content & Information.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported $7.9 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.2% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 1.3% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $32.9 B. The last four reported quarters add to $33.4 B.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported $7.9 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.2% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 1.3% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $32.9 B. The last four reported quarters add to $33.4 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $32.9 B (+15.8% on the year), capping 4 years at 1.3% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $7.9 B, +7.2% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +15.4% growth against the decade's 1.3% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +15.3% over the last 4 quarters against +10.2%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit −8.6% vs +28.1%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 33.6% this quarter (−32.2 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group's operating margin is 33.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, −32.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.2% to 40.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group's operating margin is 33.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, −32.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.2% to 40.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 33.6%, −32.2 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 12.2%–40.6%, and FY25's 40.6% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −32.2 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.0 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −51.3% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group earned $2.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −51.3% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $11.3 B. The 4-year compound rate is 37.1%. That is 27.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $4.4 B.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group earned $2.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −51.3% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $11.3 B. The 4-year compound rate is 37.1%. That is 27.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $4.4 B.

Mar 26 profit was $2.1 B, −51.3% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $11.3 B (+59.6%), and the 4-year compound rate is 37.1%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +7.2% and the margin −32.2 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +6.5% vs revenue +15.4%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 118% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 118% of Tencent Music Entertainment Group's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $10.2 B of operating cash against $11.3 B of profit. After $0.3 B of capital spending, $9.9 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $10.2 B against reported profit of $11.3 B, leaving free cash of $9.9 B after $0.3 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 118% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $1.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Tencent Music Entertainment Group does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $1.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 1.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $1.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 12% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +5.7 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group earns a ROE of 14% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 6% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +5.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 34.5% net margin on 0.32× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 14%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 6% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 34.5% net margin × 0.32× asset turns × 1.23× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.6% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 14.0% − 8.3% = a +5.7 pp spread. The 8.3% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.06.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group has 3 quarters of declared dividends on file — too few for a trailing-twelve-month figure. The most recent declaration was $1.68 for Dec 25.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group has 3 quarters of declared dividends on file — too few for a trailing-twelve-month figure. The most recent declaration was $1.68 for Dec 25.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group has declared a dividend in 3 of the last 12 reported quarters, most recently $1.68 for Dec 25. That is fewer than four quarters, so no trailing-twelve-month total is shown rather than one built from a partial year.

→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group carries total debt of $4.8 B against shareholder equity of $77.1 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.06 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.10 in FY21 to 0.05 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of $4.8 B against shareholder equity of $77.1 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.06. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.10 (FY21) to 0.05 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for Tencent Music Entertainment Group, so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 3.8 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group: the Z-score reads 6.68. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 6.68 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 6.68.

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