Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd trades at ₹85.0, in a confirmed uptrend and 64 weeks into that stage. That is +23.1% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of ₹55 to ₹85. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 64 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹85.0 it trades +23.1% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range (₹55–₹85).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +955% while the NIFTY 500 moved +280% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/BV sits at the 100th percentile of its own range.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd trades at 4.1× P/BV, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/BV is 1.3×, measured across 5.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 4.1× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 1.3× measured over 5.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The honest context for that discount: a bank earning about 10% on its equity is worth less per rupee of book, and the market has priced that in rather than overlooked it. The discount closes only if the returns themselves improve.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +47.6% — the price ran ahead of the book, pushing the multiple up its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +41.0%/yr price move, ~+2.9%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+38.1 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 5 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

50.8/100 — rank 4 of 6 in Finance - PSU Lending · 88% evidence confidence

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd scores 50.8 out of 100 against the 6 companies it is compared with in Finance - PSU Lending, ranking 4. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 21.6%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 12.2 + 16.7 + 1.9 + 20 = 50.8. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd reported ₹51.0 Cr of income in the Dec 22 quarter, −17.7% year on year. Over 2 years it has compounded at −2.3% a year. The last full year, FY22, came in at ₹254 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹233 Cr.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd reported ₹51.0 Cr of income in the Dec 22 quarter, −17.7% year on year. Over 2 years it has compounded at −2.3% a year. The last full year, FY22, came in at ₹254 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹233 Cr.

FY22 revenue came in at ₹254 Cr (−1.6% on the year), capping 2 years at −2.3% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 22) printed ₹51.0 Cr, −17.7% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −8.1% growth against the decade's −2.3% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

→ Revenue slipped — did the net margin hold as it scaled? Next: 35.3% this quarter (+3.0 pp YoY).

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd's net margin is 35.3% in the Dec 22 quarter, +3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 30.5% to 33.5%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd's net margin is 35.3% in the Dec 22 quarter, +3.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 30.5% to 33.5%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's net margin is 35.3%, +3.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 30.5%–33.5%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ The net margin held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −10.0% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd earned ₹18.0 Cr of net profit in the Dec 22 quarter, −10.0% year on year. Full-year FY22 profit was ₹85.0 Cr. The 2-year compound rate is 2.4%. That is 35.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹20.0 Cr.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd earned ₹18.0 Cr of net profit in the Dec 22 quarter, −10.0% year on year. Full-year FY22 profit was ₹85.0 Cr. The 2-year compound rate is 2.4%. That is 35.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹20.0 Cr.

Dec 22 profit was ₹18.0 Cr, −10.0% year on year. On the full year, FY22 printed ₹85.0 Cr (+4.9%), and the 2-year compound rate is 2.4%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −17.7% and the margin +3.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +5.5% vs revenue −8.1%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit is up — how clean is the loan book behind it? Next: we hold no quarterly loan-book numbers — the section says so plainly.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

→ Behind the profits — is the book itself still growing? Next: revenue grew −1.6% in FY22.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd's revenue grew −1.6% in FY22 to ₹254 Cr, so the book is flat. The latest quarter ran −17.7% year on year. The net margin on that income is 35.3%, +3.0 percentage points against a year ago.

FY22 revenue was ₹254 Cr, −1.6% on the year, and the latest quarter ran −17.7% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 35.3% this quarter (+3.0 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

→ Does all of this actually earn its keep on equity? Next: ROE is 10%.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd earns a return on equity of 10% in FY22. Its trough over the ladder below was 10% in FY21. For a lender the balance sheet is the operating asset, so equity return and asset return have to be read together.

FY22 ROE came in at 10%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 10%. On assets, the latest reading is about null% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly null a year. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 2.4% a year over 2 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

→ Who owns this bank, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 4.0 points over 8 quarters.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 4.0 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 4.0 points of Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 3.9% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +2.5 points over the same window, to 5.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −4.0 points over 8 quarters to 3.9%; Foreign institutions: +2.5 points over 8 quarters to 5.5%; Domestic institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 0.0%. Note the structure: promoters hold under 20% — this is a widely-held company where institutions, not a family, set the direction.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−4.0 points), absorbed on the other side by foreign institutions (+2.5 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

Frequently asked questions