TCPL Packaging Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

TCPL Packaging Ltd trades at ₹3,221, in a downtrend and 44 weeks into that stage. That is +11.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 72% of a 52-week range of ₹2,348 to ₹3,556. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 44 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹3,221 it trades +11.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 72% of its 52-week range (₹2,348–₹3,556).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +543% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 96th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

TCPL Packaging Ltd trades at 27.5× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (96th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 18.5×, measured across 6.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 27.5× is at the pricey end of its own range (96th percentile), against a long-run median of 18.5× measured over 6.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −31.6% against a −14.7% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +43.5%/yr price move, ~+26.1%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+17.4 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

TCPL Packaging Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — profit and EPS growth are shrinking (profit growth −31.9% latest against +72.3% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 21.0%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

36.6/100 — rank 6 of 6 in Packaging - FMCG/Consumers · 90% evidence confidence

TCPL Packaging Ltd scores 36.6 out of 100 against the 6 companies it is compared with in Packaging - FMCG/Consumers, ranking 6. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 6.5 + 12.2 + 10.4 + 7.5 = 36.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

TCPL Packaging Ltd reported ₹454 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.6% year on year. Over 6 years it has compounded at 12.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,810 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,810 Cr.

TCPL Packaging Ltd reported ₹454 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +7.6% year on year. Over 6 years it has compounded at 12.6% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹1,810 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹1,810 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹1,810 Cr (+2.3% on the year), capping 6 years at 12.6% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹454 Cr, +7.6% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +2.5% growth against the decade's 12.6% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +2.2% over the last 4 quarters against +8.3%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −31.9% vs −1.0%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 15.0% this quarter (−2.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

TCPL Packaging Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 14.0% to 17.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

TCPL Packaging Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 14.0% to 17.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.0%, −2.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 14.0%–17.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −1.8 pp year on year while gross margin went −3.3 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −42.1% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

TCPL Packaging Ltd earned ₹22.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −42.1% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹98.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 17.6%. That is 4.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹38.0 Cr.

TCPL Packaging Ltd earned ₹22.0 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −42.1% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹98.0 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 17.6%. That is 4.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹38.0 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹22.0 Cr, −42.1% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹98.0 Cr (−31.5%), and the 6-year compound rate is 17.6%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +7.6% and the margin −2.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −31.8% vs revenue +2.5%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 188% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 188% of TCPL Packaging Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹271 Cr of operating cash against ₹98.0 Cr of profit. After ₹153 Cr of capital spending, ₹118 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹271 Cr against reported profit of ₹98.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹118 Cr after ₹153 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 188% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 188%: the cash cycle stretched 24 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 2.2× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹511 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

TCPL Packaging Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 98 days in FY26, up from 74 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹511 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹1,810 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹5.0 Cr, so roughly ₹486 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 93 days, inventory at 85 days — roughly 2.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 98 days, looser than FY21's 74.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 85 days to sell; customers pay about 93 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 80 days — netting out to the 98-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹1,810 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹5.0 Cr — so the 98-day loop keeps roughly ₹486 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹511 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹230 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹10.0 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 18% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −0.7 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

TCPL Packaging Ltd earns a ROCE of 18% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 14% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −0.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 5.4% net margin on 1.05× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 18%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 14% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 5.4% net margin × 1.05× asset turns × 2.39× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 13.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 11.3% − 12.0% = a −0.7 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.88.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

TCPL Packaging Ltd carries total debt of ₹634 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹719 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.88. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.35 in FY22 to 0.88 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹634 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹719 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.88. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.35 (FY22) to 0.88 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 4.5 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 4.5 points of TCPL Packaging Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 13.7% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +0.2 points over the same window, to 1.0%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +4.5 points over 8 quarters to 13.7%; Foreign institutions: +0.2 points over 8 quarters to 1.0%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 55.7%.

Why the register moved: domestic institutions drove it (+4.5 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

TCPL Packaging Ltd: the Z-score reads 3.95. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.95 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.95.

Frequently asked questions