Smurfit Westrock Plc
SWSmurfit Westrock Plc's three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.
The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +62.2% against a +4.0% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery.
The price is topping out (9 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 94th percentile of its own 2-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read deteriorating — profit −84.2% year on year, and 348% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Smurfit Westrock Plc trades at $50.8, losing momentum at the top and 9 weeks into that stage. That is +23.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 96% of a 52-week range of $34 to $52. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 3 straight weeks.
Today the stock is losing momentum at the top — week 9 of stage 3. At $50.8 it trades +23.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 96% of its 52-week range ($34–$52).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.0 years the stock moved +123% while the S&P 500 moved +243% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 3 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 94th percentile of its own range.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
Smurfit Westrock Plc trades at 69.6× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (94th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 38.2×, measured across 2.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 69.6× is at the pricey end of its own range (94th percentile), against a long-run median of 38.2× measured over 2.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +62.2% against a +4.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Smurfit Westrock Plc reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 8 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.
Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +47.7% | +32.2% | — | — |
| Profit | +118.8% | −12.1% | — | — |
| EPS | +62.2% | −30.5% | — | — |
| Stock price | +4.0% | +8.6% | −1.2% | +8.2% |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
41.2/100 — rank 15 of 19 in Packaging & Containers · 82% evidence confidence
Smurfit Westrock Plc scores 41.2 out of 100 against the 19 companies it is compared with in Packaging & Containers, ranking 15. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 12.7%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 11.2 + 9.5 + 4.6 + 15.9 = 41.2. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Smurfit Westrock Plc reported $7.7 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.7% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 3 years it has compounded at 32.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $31.2 B. The last four reported quarters add to $31.2 B.
Smurfit Westrock Plc reported $7.7 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.7% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 3 years it has compounded at 32.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $31.2 B. The last four reported quarters add to $31.2 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $31.2 B (+47.7% on the year), capping 3 years at 32.2% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $7.7 B, +0.7% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +43.2% growth against the decade's 32.2% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 3.2% this quarter (−4.0 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Smurfit Westrock Plc's operating margin is 3.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.8% to 11.5%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.
Smurfit Westrock Plc's operating margin is 3.2% in the Mar 26 quarter, −4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.8% to 11.5%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 3.2%, −4.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 4 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.8%–11.5%.
🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −4.0 pp year on year while gross margin went −4.1 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −84.2% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Smurfit Westrock Plc earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −84.2% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.7 B. The 3-year compound rate is −12.1%. That is 0.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.4 B. 2 of the last 11 reported quarters were loss-making.
Smurfit Westrock Plc earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −84.2% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.7 B. The 3-year compound rate is −12.1%. That is 0.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.4 B. 2 of the last 11 reported quarters were loss-making.
Mar 26 profit was $0.1 B, −84.2% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.7 B (+118.8%), and the 3-year compound rate is −12.1%.
🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed +0.7% and the margin −4.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −80.2% vs revenue +43.2%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 348% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 348% of Smurfit Westrock Plc's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $3.4 B of operating cash against $0.7 B of profit. After $2.2 B of capital spending, $1.2 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $3.4 B against reported profit of $0.7 B, leaving free cash of $1.2 B after $2.2 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 348% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $5.0 B of building over 3 years.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Smurfit Westrock Plc does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $5.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 5.3% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $5.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 2% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −3.4 pp.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
Smurfit Westrock Plc earns a ROE of 4% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 2% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −3.4 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 2.2% net margin on 0.69× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is 4%, recovered from a FY24 trough of 2% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 2.2% net margin × 0.69× asset turns × 2.46× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 3.7% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 3.9% − 7.3% = a −3.4 pp spread. The 7.3% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.79.
Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.
Smurfit Westrock Plc paid $1.74 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 5.2% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.45 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $50.8 that is a trailing yield of 3.43%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
Smurfit Westrock Plc paid $1.74 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 5.2% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.45 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $50.8 that is a trailing yield of 3.43%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
Smurfit Westrock Plc paid $1.74 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.45 for Mar 26. That is up 5.2% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $50.8 the trailing twelve months work out to 3.43% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.
→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
Smurfit Westrock Plc carries total debt of $14.3 B against shareholder equity of $18.1 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.79. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.61 in FY23 to 0.75 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.
Mar 26: total debt of $14.3 B against shareholder equity of $18.1 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.79. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.61 (FY23) to 0.75 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 4.9% of the float.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
4.9% of Smurfit Westrock Plc's tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 4.2 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 4.9% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 4.2 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Smurfit Westrock Plc: the Z-score reads 1.50. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits inside the distress zone. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
🚨 Why it matters: a Z-score of 1.50 is inside the distress zone — the balance sheet is a real risk, not a detail.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 1.50.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Plc this page | 69.6× | $27B | No read | |||
| International Paper Company | — | $23B | Deteriorating | |||
| Packaging Corporation of America | 32.9× | $22B | Deteriorating | |||
| Amcor plc | 30.9× | $22B | Deteriorating | |||
| Ball Corporation | 19.4× | $18B | Improving | |||
| Crown Holdings, Inc. | 17.5× | $13B | Turning around | |||
| Avery Dennison Corporation | 19.0× | $13B | Topping out | |||
| Sonoco Products Company | 9.6× | $6B | Turning around | |||
| Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | 16.6× | $5B | Deteriorating | |||
| Silgan Holdings Inc. | 18.0× | $5B | Mixed | |||
| Greif, Inc. | 5.9× | $4B | Turning around | |||
| Greif, Inc. | 4.6× | $4B | Turning around | |||
| Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 12.7× | $3B | Deteriorating | |||
| Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. | 100.5× | $3B | No read | |||
| TriMas Corporation | 85.6× | $1B | Turning around | |||
| O-I Glass, Inc. | — | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| Myers Industries, Inc. | 30.2× | $1B | Turning around | |||
| Karat Packaging Inc. | 26.4× | $1B | Improving | |||
| Ranpak Holdings Corp. | — | $1B | No read | |||
| Eightco Holdings Inc. | — | $0B | No read |
Frequently asked questions
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's stock price today?
Smurfit Westrock Plc trades at $50.8, +4.0% over the past year. The company is valued at $27.0 B. The stock sits at 96% of its 52-week range of $34–$52, +23.4% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is topping out, 9 weeks in. — as of 29 July 2026.
What were Smurfit Westrock Plc's latest quarterly results?
Smurfit Westrock Plc reported revenue of $7.7 B and net profit of $0.1 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 0.7% and profit fell 84.2% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.12. The operating margin was 3.2%, 4.0 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's revenue?
Smurfit Westrock Plc reported revenue of $7.7 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.7% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $31.2 B (+47.7%). Over the last 3 years revenue compounded at 32.2% a year. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's profit?
Smurfit Westrock Plc earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −84.2% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.7 B. The operating margin ran 3.2% in the latest quarter. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's market cap?
Smurfit Westrock Plc's market capitalisation is $27.0 B at a stock price of $50.8. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's P/E ratio?
Smurfit Westrock Plc trades at a P/E of 69.6×, at the 94th percentile of its own 2-year range, against a long-run median of 38.2×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Smurfit Westrock Plc pay a dividend?
Yes — Smurfit Westrock Plc declared $0.45 per share for Mar 26, and $1.74 per share across the last four reported quarters. The latest quarter is up 5.2% on the same quarter a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's dividend per share?
Smurfit Westrock Plc's most recently declared dividend is $0.45 per share for Mar 26, giving $1.74 per share over the trailing twelve months. Each figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters for the trailing total. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's dividend yield?
Smurfit Westrock Plc's trailing dividend yield is 3.43%: $1.74 declared per share across the last four reported quarters, against a share price of $50.8. Each quarter’s figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters and divided by the latest close. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Smurfit Westrock Plc overvalued?
On its own history, Smurfit Westrock Plc looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 69.6× sits at the 94th percentile of its 2-year range (long-run median 38.2×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Smurfit Westrock Plc growing?
Not right now — Smurfit Westrock Plc's latest numbers are shrinking: latest-quarter revenue +0.7% year on year, profit −84.2%, and the margin −4.0 pp at 3.2%. The 3-year compound rates are 32.2% (revenue) and −12.1% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: deteriorating — as of 29 July 2026.
How is Smurfit Westrock Plc performing?
Smurfit Westrock Plc is topping out, 9 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 0.7% and profit fell 84.2% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 3 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Smurfit Westrock Plc in an uptrend?
It is stalling — the price is topping out (week 9 of stage 3), trading +23.4% versus its 200-day average and at 96% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Smurfit Westrock Plc beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Smurfit Westrock Plc has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 3 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.0 years the stock moved +123% against the S&P 500's +243% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 29 July 2026.
Will Smurfit Westrock Plc's stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Smurfit Westrock Plc. What it measures instead: the stock price is $50.8, the price is topping out 9 weeks in. Its P/E of 69.6× sits at the 94th percentile of its own 2-year range. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is the market betting against Smurfit Westrock Plc?
Somewhat — short interest is 4.9% of Smurfit Westrock Plc's tradable float, about 4.2 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Smurfit Westrock Plc have too much debt?
It is moderate — Smurfit Westrock Plc's debt-to-equity is 0.79. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's capex?
Smurfit Westrock Plc spent $5.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $2.2 B. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Smurfit Westrock Plc's cash flow?
Smurfit Westrock Plc generated $3.4 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $1.2 B of free cash flow after $2.2 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.7 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Smurfit Westrock Plc's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 348% of Smurfit Westrock Plc's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $3.4 B against reported profit of $0.7 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 29 July 2026.
How financially safe is Smurfit Westrock Plc?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 1.50 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That is inside the danger band — a real balance-sheet risk. — as of 29 July 2026.
Where is Smurfit Westrock Plc in its business cycle?
Smurfit Westrock Plc's FY25 operating margin was 5.5%, against a 4-year band of 4.8%–11.5%: the low end of its own band, which is where recoveries start when they come. The latest quarter ran 3.2%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 29 July 2026.
What could break the Smurfit Westrock Plc story?
The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +62.2% against a +4.0% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Smurfit Westrock Plc a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Smurfit Westrock Plc's three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 29 July 2026.