Sibanye Stillwater Limited

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited trades at $8.4, building a base and 12 weeks into that stage. That is −34.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 7% of a 52-week range of $8 to $19. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (21 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is building a base — week 12 of stage 1. At $8.4 it trades −34.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 7% of its 52-week range ($8–$19).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved −44% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (21 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-03-06) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 11th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited trades at 0.1× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 11% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 0.2×, measured across 3.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 0.1× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 11% of the time, against a long-run median of 0.2× measured over 3.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +3.8%/yr price move, ~+4.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Sibanye Stillwater Limited reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue and profit growth are shrinking (revenue growth −4.0% latest against +164.9% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at -0.1%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — Sibanye Stillwater Limited is not among the largest members shown in this industry comparison for Other Precious Metals & Mining.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited reported $74.9 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +31.6% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −6.8% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $130 B. The last four reported quarters add to $242 B.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited reported $74.9 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +31.6% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −6.8% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $130 B. The last four reported quarters add to $242 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $130 B (+15.7% on the year), capping 4 years at −6.8% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed $74.9 B, +31.6% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +7.3% growth against the decade's −6.8% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −4.0% over the last 4 quarters against −10.2%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 8.3% this quarter (+9.2 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited's operating margin is 8.3% in the Dec 25 quarter, +9.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across the last four quarters the operating margin has moved +100.4 percentage points. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −35.1% to 30.3%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited's operating margin is 8.3% in the Dec 25 quarter, +9.2 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across the last four quarters the operating margin has moved +100.4 percentage points. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −35.1% to 30.3%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 8.3%, +9.2 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −35.1%–30.3%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +100.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +20.5 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −164.3% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited posted a net loss of $0.8 B in the Dec 25 quarter. The full FY25 year was a loss of $4.7 B. That loss is 1.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost $45.2 B. 4 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited posted a net loss of $0.8 B in the Dec 25 quarter. The full FY25 year was a loss of $4.7 B. That loss is 1.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost $45.2 B. 4 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Dec 25 profit was $−0.8 B, −164.3% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $−4.7 B (null).

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 91% of the last 2 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 2 fiscal years 91% of Sibanye Stillwater Limited's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $21.4 B of operating cash against $−4.7 B of profit. After $20.3 B of capital spending, $1.1 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $21.4 B against reported profit of $−4.7 B, leaving free cash of $1.1 B after $20.3 B of capital spending. Across the last 2 fiscal years the conversion rate is 91% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $64.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Sibanye Stillwater Limited does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $64.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 16.5% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $64.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is −10% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +5.8 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited earns a ROE of −11% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −73% in FY23. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +5.8 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is −3.7% net margin on 0.87× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is −11%, recovered from a FY23 trough of −73% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): −3.7% net margin × 0.87× asset turns × 3.39× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −10.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 14.2% − 8.4% = a +5.8 pp spread. The 8.4% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.99.

Dividend

Sibanye Stillwater Limited pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

→ No payout to follow. The cash question becomes what the business does with what it earns instead.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Debt-to-equity is 0.99 at the latest reading — modestly levered; a full borrowings history is not in our numbers.

We hold only the latest reading here: a debt-to-equity of 0.99 — a modest level of leverage behind the returns above. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so we say that rather than draw a chart we cannot support.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for Sibanye Stillwater Limited, so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.0 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Sibanye Stillwater Limited: the Z-score reads 1.66. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits inside the distress zone. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

🚨 Why it matters: a Z-score of 1.66 is inside the distress zone — the balance sheet is a real risk, not a detail.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 1.66.

Frequently asked questions