Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd trades at ₹118, in a downtrend and 55 weeks into that stage. That is −27.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 0% of a 52-week range of ₹118 to ₹192. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (7 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 55 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹118 it trades −27.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 0% of its 52-week range (₹118–₹192).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.0 years the stock moved +26% while the NIFTY 500 moved +260% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (7 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-01-16) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 21st percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd trades at 22.1× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 21% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 35.7×, measured across 10.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 22.1× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 21% of the time, against a long-run median of 35.7× measured over 10.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −7.2% against a −27.5% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +15.7%/yr price move, ~+7.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+7.8 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +2.3%/yr price move, ~+25.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−22.7 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from +0.0% at the trough to +75.0% off a 3-quarter-old trough (single-quarter readings), ROCE holding at 11.0%. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd is not present in the sector comparison for Railways.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd reported ₹169 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +10.5% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 22.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹602 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹560 Cr.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd reported ₹169 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +10.5% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 22.2% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹602 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹560 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹602 Cr (+14.4% on the year), capping 10 years at 22.2% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed ₹169 Cr, +10.5% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −10.2% growth against the decade's 22.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −11.7% over the last 4 quarters against +8.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +28.6% vs +41.4%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 15.0% this quarter (+4.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Dec 25 quarter, +4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 18.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd's operating margin is 15.0% in the Dec 25 quarter, +4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0% to 18.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 15.0%, +4.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 11 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 4.0%–18.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +3.8 pp year on year while gross margin went +7.0 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +75.0% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd earned ₹14.0 Cr of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +75.0% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹29.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 25.5%. That is 8.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹8.0 Cr.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd earned ₹14.0 Cr of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +75.0% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹29.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 25.5%. That is 8.3% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹8.0 Cr.

Dec 25 profit was ₹14.0 Cr, +75.0% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹29.0 Cr (−3.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 25.5%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +10.5% and the margin +4.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +27.5% vs revenue −10.2%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: −100% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years −100% of Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY25 that was ₹−24.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹29.0 Cr of profit. After ₹15.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−39.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹−24.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹29.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−39.0 Cr after ₹15.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is −100% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at −100%: the cash cycle stretched 73 days between FY20 and FY25 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 73 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: the 266-day cycle, in money terms.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 266 days in FY25, up from 193 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹48.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹602 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.6 Cr, so roughly ₹439 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 87 days, inventory at 214 days — roughly 7.0 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 266 days, looser than FY20's 193.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 214 days to sell; customers pay about 87 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 35 days — netting out to the 266-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹602 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.6 Cr — so the 266-day loop keeps roughly ₹439 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹48.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹24.0 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹7.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 11%.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd earns a ROCE of 11% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 6% in FY23. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 4.8% net margin on 0.85× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 11%, recovered from a FY23 trough of 6% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 4.8% net margin × 0.85× asset turns × 2.05× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 8.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.82.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd carries ₹282 Cr of borrowings against ₹346 Cr of equity in FY25, a debt-to-equity of 0.82. Operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹191 Cr to ₹282 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹48.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY25: borrowings of ₹282 Cr against equity of ₹346 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.82. Operating profit covers the interest bill 3×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹191 Cr to ₹282 Cr while capital spending ran ₹48.0 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Foreign institutions moved +0.1 points over the same window, to 0.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 57.7%; Foreign institutions: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 0.1%.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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