NMDC Steel Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

NMDC Steel Ltd trades at ₹43.0, in a confirmed uptrend and 7 weeks into that stage. That is +0.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 52% of a 52-week range of ₹35 to ₹51. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (4 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 7 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹43.0 it trades +0.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 52% of its 52-week range (₹35–₹51).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 3.4 years the stock moved +35% while the NIFTY 500 moved +59% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-25) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

NMDC Steel Ltd trades at 207.0× P/E, against too little history to rank. Its long-run median P/E is 223.2×, measured across 0.2 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 207.0× is against too little history to rank, against a long-run median of 223.2× measured over 0.2 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: No read Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

NMDC Steel Ltd reads as no read on its fundamental arc. Under eight usable quarters on the growth trio — not enough history for an honest trajectory read. The read is built from 11 quarters across 1 curve, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: with too little history, an honest page says so instead of guessing a trajectory.

Fewer than eight usable quarters on the growth curves — this page will not guess a trajectory from a stub of history.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

54.4/100 — rank 3 of 10 in Steel · 71% evidence confidence

NMDC Steel Ltd scores 54.4 out of 100 against the 10 companies it is compared with in Steel, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 25.4 + 11.9 + 8.5 + 8.6 = 54.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

NMDC Steel Ltd reported ₹3,879 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +36.7% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹13,642 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹13,642 Cr.

NMDC Steel Ltd reported ₹3,879 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +36.7% year on year. That is the 7th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹13,642 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹13,642 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹13,642 Cr (+60.4% on the year). The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹3,879 Cr, +36.7% year on year — the 7th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +60.4% over the last 4 quarters against +111.5%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 21.0% this quarter (+31.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

NMDC Steel Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +31.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −47.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

NMDC Steel Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +31.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −47.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.0%, +31.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 3 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −47.0%–11.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +31.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +22.3 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit null in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

NMDC Steel Ltd earned ₹392 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹59.0 Cr. That is 10.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹473 Cr. 9 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

NMDC Steel Ltd earned ₹392 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹59.0 Cr. That is 10.1% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost ₹473 Cr. 9 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹392 Cr, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹59.0 Cr (null).

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow?

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

NMDC Steel Ltd's cash-flow history is too thin to judge how much reported profit converts into cash. In FY26 that was ₹1,796 Cr of operating cash against ₹59.0 Cr of profit. After ₹216 Cr of capital spending, ₹1,580 Cr was left as free cash. Cash resolution here is annual, because quarterly cash statements are not published.

FY26: operating cash of ₹1,796 Cr against reported profit of ₹59.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹1,580 Cr after ₹216 Cr of capital spending.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a −83-day cycle and ₹1,907 Cr of building.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

NMDC Steel Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −83 days in FY26, down from 141 days in FY24. Capital spending ran ₹1,907 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹13,642 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹37.4 Cr, so roughly ₹−3,102 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 5 days, inventory at 160 days — roughly 5.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −83 days, tighter than FY24's 141.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 160 days to sell; customers pay about 5 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 248 days — netting out to the −83-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹13,642 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹37.4 Cr — so the −83-day loop keeps roughly ₹−3,102 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹1,907 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹2,548 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹570 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 3% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −9.9 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

NMDC Steel Ltd earns a ROCE of 3% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −200% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −9.9 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 0.4% net margin on 0.48× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 3%, recovered from a FY21 trough of −200% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 0.4% net margin × 0.48× asset turns × 2.14× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 0.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 2.1% − 12.0% = a −9.9 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.35.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

NMDC Steel Ltd carries total debt of ₹4,613 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹13,173 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.35. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.43 in FY24 to 0.35 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹4,613 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹13,173 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.35. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.43 (FY24) to 0.35 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions added 1.0 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions added 1.0 points of NMDC Steel Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 5.5% of the company. Domestic institutions moved −0.4 points over the same window, to 15.8%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: +1.0 points over 8 quarters to 5.5%; Domestic institutions: −0.4 points over 8 quarters to 15.8%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 60.8%.

Why the register moved: foreign institutions drove it (+1.0 points) — steady accumulation by institutions reading the same numbers this page reads.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

NMDC Steel Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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