Sector Alpha Week of 2026-07-29
Sector Alpha — machine-written from the numbers · Data as of 2026-07-29

Mueller Water Products, Inc.

MWA
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Mueller Water Products, Inc. is coiled. The quarters are improving, yet the P/E sits at the 6th percentile of its own 4-year range — the business is moving before the market.

The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +64.9% against a +3.0% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery.

The price is building a base (5 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 6th percentile of its own 4-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +20.0% year on year, and 142% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved.

Stage
Mixed
fundamental trajectory, 12 quarters
Price
$25.9
+3.0% 1Y
P/E
19.6×
6th pctile
of its own 4-year range
Revenue (Mar 26)
$0.4 B
+5.6% YoY
Profit (Mar 26)
$0.1 B
+20.0% YoY
Operating margin
21.1%
+1.7 pp YoY
ROE
21%
FY25
ROIC
20.9%
vs WACC 9.2% → +11.7 pp
Cash conversion
142%
of profit, last 3 FY
01 · Price story

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. trades at $25.9, building a base and 5 weeks into that stage. That is −1.4% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 39% of a 52-week range of $23 to $30. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (14 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is building a base — week 5 of stage 1. At $25.9 it trades −1.4% versus its 200-day average and sits at 39% of its 52-week range ($23–$30).

Jul 26: $25.9 Weekly closing price ($) with 50- and 200-day averages; shaded bands mark the price stage (grey base, green advance, amber top, red decline). 3-year window.
−1.4% versus the 200-day line, week 5 of stage 1
Price50-day avg200-day avg
S1S2S2$31.6$26.4$21.2$16.0$10.8$$26$26Jul 23Apr 24Jan 25Oct 25Jul 26
S1S2S2$31.6$26.4$21.2$16.0$10.8$$26$26Jul 23Jan 25Jul 26
Beating or trailing, week by week since 2016 Each cell is one week from 2016 to now (526 weeks): the stock's trailing 13-week return minus the S&P 500's, green ahead / red behind (±25% ramp). Grey cells are the 13-week warm-up or weeks where the S&P 500 reading is not held.
trailing 13-week return vs the S&P 500
Jul 16Jul 26

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +124% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (14 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-04-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 6th percentile of its own range.

02 · Valuation

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. trades at 19.6× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 6% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 25.7×, measured across 4.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 19.6× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 6% of the time, against a long-run median of 25.7× measured over 4.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

One caveat before moving on: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. If profitability mean-reverts, today's multiple is higher than it looks.

P/E 19.6× vs a 25.7× long-run median P/E, weekly (left axis); earnings per share, trailing twelve months, weekly step line (right axis). 4.3-year window; loss-period spikes above 33× shown pinned at the top. The eps (ttm) bars are red where the reading is lower than the quarter before.
near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 6% of the time
P/EMedianEPS (TTM) (quarterly)
34.5×$1.430.1×$1.125.6×$0.721.2×$0.416.7×$0.0×$19.78×$1Apr 22Apr 23May 24Jun 25Jul 26
34.5×$1.430.1×$1.125.6×$0.721.2×$0.416.7×$0.0×$19.78×$1Apr 22May 24Jul 26
PEG 1.26 PEG ratio per quarter — the P/E divided by the earnings-growth rate. The dashed line marks 1.0: below it the growth is cheap against the multiple, above it the price already prices the growth in. Last 19 quarters.
above 1.0, the multiple already banks the growth
PEGPEG = 1.0
2.2×1.8×1.5×1.2×0.9××1.26×Sep 21Sep 22Dec 23Dec 24Mar 26
2.2×1.8×1.5×1.2×0.9××1.26×Sep 21Dec 23Mar 26
P/E
19.6×
6th percentile of 4y
PEG
1.11
as reported

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +64.9% against a +3.0% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +17.5%/yr price move, ~+38.8%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−21.3 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

03 · Stage: Mixed

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Mueller Water Products, Inc. reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 18.2% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Three growth curves, twelve quarters Year-on-year growth of trailing-twelve-month revenue (left axis), profit and EPS (right axis — they swing far wider), % at each quarter-end. A missing point means that reading is not held for the quarter.
the trajectory the stage is read from
RevenueProfitEPS
13%110%8.1%74%3.4%39%−1.3%3.5%−6.0%−32%%%6.6%33.3%44%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
13%110%8.1%74%3.4%39%−1.3%3.5%−6.0%−32%%%6.6%33.3%44%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
ROCE Trailing-twelve-month operating profit (before interest and tax) as a share of average capital employed — total assets minus current liabilities, the standard textbook basis, %.
the return curve, computed quarterly
ROCE
19%16%13%11%7.7%%18.2%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
19%16%13%11%7.7%%18.2%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
Revenue growth
Steady high
latest +6.6% · span −4.7% to +11.5%
Profit growth
Rolling over
latest +33.3% · span −22.2% to +100.0%
EPS growth
Steady high
latest +44.0% · span −12.5% to +72.0%
ROCE
Steady high
latest 18.2% · span 8.5%–18.2%

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

Growth, year by year: revenue +9.2% in FY25, profit +58.3% Year-over-year growth per fiscal year, %: revenue (left axis); net profit and EPS (right axis — profit growth swings far wider). Zero line drawn.
Revenue YoYProfit YoYEPS YoY
13%69%10%53%7.4%37%4.5%21%1.5%4.6%%%9.2%58.3%FY21FY23FY25
13%69%10%53%7.4%37%4.5%21%1.5%4.6%%%9.2%58.3%FY21FY23FY25
TTM growth by quarter Trailing-twelve-month growth versus the year-ago TTM, per quarter, %: revenue (left axis); profit and EPS (right axis). The acceleration read compares the last 4 quarters (+6.6%) with the last 8 annualized (+8.5%).
revenue stabilising, profit rolling over
Revenue TTM YoYProfit TTM YoYEPS TTM YoY
13%110%8.1%74%3.4%39%−1.3%3.5%−6.0%−32%%%6.6%33.3%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
13%110%8.1%74%3.4%39%−1.3%3.5%−6.0%−32%%%6.6%33.3%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
Compound annual growth rate (%) Compound annual growth rate over each window, %. Revenue, profit and EPS from fiscal-year figures; stock price is the price CAGR over the same spans. A dash = that window is not held, or the base was a loss.
1yr3yr5yr10yr
Revenue+9.2%+4.6%
Profit+58.3%+33.4%
EPS+64.9%+36.5%
Stock price+3.0%+17.5%+11.8%+8.1%
Revenue YoY (Mar 26)
+5.6%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Profit YoY (Mar 26)
+20.0%
latest quarter vs a year ago
Revenue 10y
6.5%
long-run compound pace

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

04 · 4-Factor Sector Score

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — Mueller Water Products, Inc. is not among the largest members shown in this industry comparison for Specialty Industrial Machinery.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

05 · Revenue

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. reported $0.4 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.6% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 6.5% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.4 B. The last four reported quarters add to $1.5 B.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. reported $0.4 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.6% year on year. That is the 9th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 6.5% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.4 B. The last four reported quarters add to $1.5 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $1.4 B (+9.2% on the year), capping 4 years at 6.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.4 B, +5.6% year on year — the 9th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

FY25 revenue $1.4 B (+9.2% YoY) Revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
6.5% a year over 4 years
RevenueYoY growth
1.513%1.210%0.87.4%0.44.5%0.01.5%$ B%$1B9.2%FY21FY23FY25
1.513%1.210%0.87.4%0.44.5%0.01.5%$ B%$1B9.2%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: $0.4 B (+5.6% YoY) Quarterly revenue bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
9th straight quarter of growth
Revenue (quarterly)YoY growth
0.419%0.39.8%0.20.0%0.1−9.2%0.0−19%$ B%$0B5.6%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.419%0.39.8%0.20.0%0.1−9.2%0.0−19%$ B%$0B5.6%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +6.6% growth against the decade's 6.5% — the current year is running in line with its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +6.6% over the last 4 quarters against +8.5%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +33.3% vs +49.1%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 21.1% this quarter (+1.7 pp YoY).

06 · Operating margin

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s operating margin is 21.1% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.8% to 18.2%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s operating margin is 21.1% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.8% to 18.2%. The current quarter is running above every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.1%, +1.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.8%–18.2%, and FY25's 18.2% is the top of that band — a record year.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.7 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

FY25: 18.2% Operating margin by fiscal year, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). 5-year window.
the widest a 8.8–18.2% band over 5 years
operating marginYoY change (pp)
19%5.1%16%2.9%14%0.8%11%−1.3%8.0%−3.5%%%18.2%4.5%FY21FY23FY25
19%5.1%16%2.9%14%0.8%11%−1.3%8.0%−3.5%%%18.2%4.5%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: 21.1% operating margin (+1.7 pp YoY) Quarterly operating margin, %, line (left); year-on-year change in the margin, in percentage points, line (right). Last 12 quarters. Operating profit as a share of revenue, per quarter.
Operating marginYoY change (pp)
22%11%18%7.3%14%3.9%9.7%0.5%5.5%−2.9%%%21.1%1.7%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
22%11%18%7.3%14%3.9%9.7%0.5%5.5%−2.9%%%21.1%1.7%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +20.0% in the latest quarter.

07 · Net profit

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.2 B. The 4-year compound rate is 28.4%. That is 15.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.1 B.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.2 B. The 4-year compound rate is 28.4%. That is 15.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.1 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.1 B, +20.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.2 B (+58.3%), and the 4-year compound rate is 28.4%.

FY25 profit $0.2 B (+58.3% YoY) Net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). 5-year window. A bar is red when it is lower than the year before.
28.4% a year over 4 years
Net profitYoY growth
0.2162%0.1549%0.1035%0.0522%0.008.8%$ B%$0B58.3%FY21FY23FY25
0.2162%0.1549%0.1035%0.0522%0.008.8%$ B%$0B58.3%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: $0.1 B (+20.0% YoY) Quarterly net profit bars, $ B (left); YoY growth-% line (right). Last 12 quarters. A bar is red when it is lower than the quarter before.
Net profit (quarterly)YoY growth
0.06436%0.05306%0.03175%0.0245%0.00−86%$ B%$0B20%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.06436%0.05306%0.03175%0.0245%0.00−86%$ B%$0B20%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +5.6% and the margin +1.7 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +105.0% vs revenue +6.6%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 142% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

08 · Cash flow — the router

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 142% of Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.2 B of operating cash against $0.2 B of profit. After $0.1 B of capital spending, $0.2 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.2 B against reported profit of $0.2 B, leaving free cash of $0.2 B after $0.1 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 142% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

FY25: CFO $0.2 B vs profit $0.2 B Operating cash flow and net profit by fiscal year, $ B; the line is free cash flow (CFO minus capital spending). 5-year window, annual resolution.
142% of 3-year profit arrived as cash
Operating cashNet profitFree cash
0.260.190.130.060.00$ B$0B$0B$0BFY21FY23FY25
0.260.190.130.060.00$ B$0B$0B$0BFY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: operating cash $−0.0 B = −17% of the quarter's profit Operating cash per quarter, $ B (bars); conversion = operating cash as % of net profit (line, right). Last 12 quarters. Dashed line = 100%.
Operating cash (quarterly)Conversion100%
0.10974%0.07706%0.04438%0.01169%−0.02−99%$ B%$0B−17%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.10974%0.07706%0.04438%0.01169%−0.02−99%$ B%$0B−17%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $0.0 B of building over 3 years.

09 · Where the cash goes

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Mueller Water Products, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

FY25: capex $0.1 B Capital spending per fiscal year, $ B (bars).
steady investment
Capex
0.060.050.030.020.00$ B$0BFY21FY23FY25
0.060.050.030.020.00$ B$0BFY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: capex $0.0 B in the quarter Capital spending per quarter, $ B (bars, left); free cash flow, $ B (line, right). Last 12 quarters.
Capex (quarterly)Free cash
0.0220.090.0160.060.0110.030.005−0.010.000−0.04$ B$ B$0B$0BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.0220.090.0160.060.0110.030.005−0.010.000−0.04$ B$ B$0B$0BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 21% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +11.7 pp.

10 · Return on equity

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. earns a ROE of 19% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 10% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +11.7 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 13.3% net margin on 0.78× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 19%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 10% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 13.3% net margin × 0.78× asset turns × 1.88× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 19.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 20.9% − 9.2% = a +11.7 pp spread. The 9.2% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

FY25: ROE 19% Return on equity by fiscal year, % (line); ROIC by fiscal year, % (line). 5-year window, dips included. Dashed line = the 9.2% cost of capital used on this page.
the climb back from FY21's 10%
ROEROIC (annual)WACC
21%18%15%11%8.3%%19.4%20.1%FY21FY23FY25
21%18%15%11%8.3%%19.4%20.1%FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: ROIC 20.8% (TTM) vs WACC 9.2% Trailing-twelve-month ROIC and ROE, per quarter, %; dashed line = the cost of capital. Last 12 quarters, put on a trailing-twelve-month basis and anchored to the annual figure.
ROIC (TTM)ROE (TTM)WACC
24%20%16%12%8.1%%20.8%22.8%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
24%20%16%12%8.1%%20.8%22.8%Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.42.

11 · Dividend

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. paid $0.27 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 4.5% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.07 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $25.9 that is a trailing yield of 1.04%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. paid $0.27 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 4.5% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.07 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $25.9 that is a trailing yield of 1.04%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. paid $0.27 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.07 for Mar 26. That is up 4.5% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $25.9 the trailing twelve months work out to 1.04% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.

Dividend per share by quarter Declared dividend per share, $ B, per reported quarter. 12 quarters on file.
latest $0.07 (Mar 26)
Dividend per share
0.080.060.040.020.00$ B$0BJun 23Dec 23Sep 24Jun 25Mar 26
0.080.060.040.020.00$ B$0BJun 23Sep 24Mar 26

→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.

12 · Debt

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Mueller Water Products, Inc. carries total debt of $0.5 B against shareholder equity of $1.1 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.42. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.65 in FY21 to 0.46 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.5 B against shareholder equity of $1.1 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.42. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.65 (FY21) to 0.46 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

FY25: debt $0.5 B at 0.46× equity Total debt by fiscal year, $ B (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). 5-year window.
Total debtDebt-to-equity
0.50.69×0.40.63×0.20.57×0.10.50×0.00.44×$ B×$1B0.46×FY21FY23FY25
0.50.69×0.40.63×0.20.57×0.10.50×0.00.44×$ B×$1B0.46×FY21FY23FY25
Mar 26: debt $0.5 B, debt-to-equity 0.42 Total debt per quarter, $ B (bars); debt-to-equity, × (line). Last 12 quarters.
Total debt (quarterly)Debt-to-equity
0.50.65×0.40.59×0.20.53×0.10.46×0.00.40×$ B×$1B0.42×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26
0.50.65×0.40.59×0.20.53×0.10.46×0.00.40×$ B×$1B0.42×Jun 23Sep 24Mar 26

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 3.4% of the float.

13 · Ownership

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

3.4% of Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 4.0 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 3.4% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 4.0 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Short interest
3.4%
of the tradable float
Days to cover
4.0
at typical volumes

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

14 · Safety line

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Mueller Water Products, Inc.: the Z-score reads 4.73. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 4.73 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 4.73.

Related companies · same industry · Specialty Industrial Machinery Every company is compared on the shape of its own curves, not static ratios. The Revenue, EPS and ROCE columns each draw that company's last 12 quarters as a mini line of the ACTUAL level (trailing-twelve-month revenue and EPS, and the ROCE itself) — so a line that climbs is a business getting bigger, a line that sinks is one shrinking. The colour tracks the same line: green when it is rising or steadily healthy, amber when it is rolling over from a high (still elevated but turning down), red when it is falling, grey when flat or stuck. Colour and direction always agree — a green line never points down. The ROCE curve is the return on capital (annual readings for peers, so a slightly coarser line than the quarterly one at the top of this page). The Stage column then runs the same 12-quarter trajectory classifier used at the top of the page on each company and names where it sits. What lands a company in each bucket: CONSISTENT — growth stays positive across the window and returns are healthy (ROCE ≥ 15%, or ROE ≥ 12% for lenders); IMPROVING — profit or EPS fell into real decline, bottomed a few quarters back, and has climbed back to positive and held there; TURNING AROUND — the same kind of trough but more recent, with the latest quarters just lifting off it (an early, unconfirmed turn); TOPPING OUT — growth is still positive but decelerating hard from its own peak while returns have stopped rising; DETERIORATING — two or more growth curves are shrinking (latest below zero) and staying there, not one soft quarter; MIXED — the curves genuinely disagree, or no clean majority, so no single word fits; NO READ — fewer than eight usable quarters. It is a like-for-like read of every company against its own past, not a ranking against the group.
CompanyP/EMkt capRevenueEPSROCEStage
Mueller Water Products, Inc. this page19.6×$4BMixed
GE Vernova Inc.27.0×$251BNo read
Eaton Corporation plc37.8×$150BConsistent
Parker-Hannifin Corporation36.6×$125BMixed
Cummins Inc.34.4×$89BTopping out
Emerson Electric Co.35.1×$85BImproving
Illinois Tool Works Inc.25.8×$85BDeteriorating
AMETEK, Inc.36.5×$55BMixed
Rockwell Automation, Inc.48.9×$52BImproving
Ingersoll Rand Inc.58.6×$34BDeteriorating
Xylem Inc.29.7×$30BMixed
Otis Worldwide Corporation18.9×$28BDeteriorating
Dover Corporation24.4×$27BImproving
Symbotic Inc.$26BNo read
ITT Inc.35.4×$18BDeteriorating
Nordson Corporation32.3×$17BTurning around
IDEX Corporation33.2×$17BTurning around
Regal Rexnord Corporation47.2×$14BImproving
Graco Inc.25.9×$13BMixed
Crane Company41.5×$13BTopping out
Watts Water Technologies, Inc.31.7×$12BConsistent
Generac Holdings Inc.61.1×$12BDeteriorating
Donaldson Company, Inc.25.7×$11BTurning around
Pentair plc16.8×$11BMixed
Chart Industries, Inc.$10BDeteriorating
Flowserve Corporation27.0×$9BConsistent
A. O. Smith Corporation17.1×$9BMixed
JBT Marel Corporation45.4×$8BDeteriorating
Gates Industrial Corporation plc27.8×$7BImproving
Enpro Inc.152.7×$7BDeteriorating
The Middleby Corporation18.5×$6BDeteriorating
CSW Industrials, Inc.44.6×$5BDeteriorating
Franklin Electric Co., Inc.31.6×$5BDeteriorating
Mirion Technologies, Inc.189.9×$4BNo read
Kadant Inc.35.9×$4BTurning around
Standex International Corporation35.8×$4BTurning around
Crane NXT, Co.24.5×$3BDeteriorating
NuScale Power Corporation$3BNo read
ERock, Inc.$3B
ATS Corporation51.6×$3BDeteriorating
12 · Frequently asked questions

Frequently asked questions

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s stock price today?

Mueller Water Products, Inc. trades at $25.9, +3.0% over the past year. The company is valued at $4.0 B. The stock sits at 39% of its 52-week range of $23–$30, −1.4% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is building a base, 5 weeks in. — as of 29 July 2026.

What were Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s latest quarterly results?

Mueller Water Products, Inc. reported revenue of $0.4 B and net profit of $0.1 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 5.6% and profit rose 20.0% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.38. The operating margin was 21.1%, 1.7 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s revenue?

Mueller Water Products, Inc. reported revenue of $0.4 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +5.6% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $1.4 B (+9.2%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 6.5% a year. — as of 29 July 2026.

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s profit?

Mueller Water Products, Inc. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +20.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.2 B. The operating margin ran 21.1% in the latest quarter. — as of 29 July 2026.

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s market cap?

Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s market capitalisation is $4.0 B at a stock price of $25.9. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 29 July 2026.

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s P/E ratio?

Mueller Water Products, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.6×, at the 6th percentile of its own 4-year range, against a long-run median of 25.7×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 29 July 2026.

Does Mueller Water Products, Inc. pay a dividend?

Yes — Mueller Water Products, Inc. declared $0.07 per share for Mar 26, and $0.27 per share across the last four reported quarters. The latest quarter is up 4.5% on the same quarter a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s dividend per share?

Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s most recently declared dividend is $0.07 per share for Mar 26, giving $0.27 per share over the trailing twelve months. Each figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters for the trailing total. — as of 29 July 2026.

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s dividend yield?

Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s trailing dividend yield is 1.04%: $0.27 declared per share across the last four reported quarters, against a share price of $25.9. Each quarter’s figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters and divided by the latest close. — as of 29 July 2026.

Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. overvalued?

On its own history, Mueller Water Products, Inc. looks cheap against its own history: its P/E of 19.6× has been cheaper only 6% of the time in 4 years (long-run median 25.7×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. One caveat: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. — as of 29 July 2026.

Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. growing?

Yes — Mueller Water Products, Inc. is growing: latest-quarter revenue +5.6% year on year, profit +20.0%, and the margin +1.7 pp at 21.1%. The 4-year compound rates are 6.5% (revenue) and 28.4% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 29 July 2026.

How is Mueller Water Products, Inc. performing?

Mueller Water Products, Inc. is building a base, 5 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 5.6% and profit rose 20.0% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 14 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 29 July 2026.

What stage is Mueller Water Products, Inc. in?

Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 18.2% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +6.6% latest, profit growth +33.3% latest, eps growth +44.0% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 29 July 2026.

Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. in an uptrend?

No — the price is building a base (week 5 of stage 1), trading −1.4% versus its 200-day average and at 39% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 29 July 2026.

Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. beating the market?

Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view Mueller Water Products, Inc. is currently behind the S&P 500 (14 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-04-24), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +124% against the S&P 500's +248% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 29 July 2026.

Will Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s stock price go up?

This page publishes no price forecast for Mueller Water Products, Inc. What it measures instead: the stock price is $25.9, the price is building a base 5 weeks in. Its P/E of 19.6× sits at the 6th percentile of its own 4-year range. — as of 29 July 2026.

Is the market betting against Mueller Water Products, Inc.?

Somewhat — short interest is 3.4% of Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s tradable float, about 4.0 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 29 July 2026.

Does Mueller Water Products, Inc. have too much debt?

It is moderate — Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s debt-to-equity is 0.42. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 29 July 2026.

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s capex?

Mueller Water Products, Inc. spent $0.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $0.1 B. — as of 29 July 2026.

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s cash flow?

Mueller Water Products, Inc. generated $0.2 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $0.2 B of free cash flow after $0.1 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.2 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 29 July 2026.

Is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s profit real cash?

Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 142% of Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $0.2 B against reported profit of $0.2 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 29 July 2026.

How financially safe is Mueller Water Products, Inc.?

On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 4.73 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 29 July 2026.

Where is Mueller Water Products, Inc. in its business cycle?

Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s FY25 operating margin was 18.2%, against a 5-year band of 8.8%–18.2%: the top of the band — a record year. Record profitability is late-cycle territory: every ratio flatters at the top, and the story leans on margins holding. The latest quarter ran 21.1%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 29 July 2026.

What could break the Mueller Water Products, Inc. story?

The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +64.9% against a +3.0% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 29 July 2026.

Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. a stock worth studying right now?

This is not investment advice. The machine read: Mueller Water Products, Inc. is coiled. The quarters are improving, yet the P/E sits at the 6th percentile of its own 4-year range — the business is moving before the market. The sharpest open question: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 29 July 2026.

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