MGP Ingredients, Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. trades at $18.7, between stages. That is −11.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 17% of a 52-week range of $16 to $30. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (23 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is between stages. At $18.7 it trades −11.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 17% of its 52-week range ($16–$30).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.0 years the stock moved −40% while the S&P 500 moved +19% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (23 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-02-20) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. trades at 53.8× P/E, against too little history to rank. Its long-run median P/E is 62.1×, measured across 0.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 53.8× is against too little history to rank, against a long-run median of 62.1× measured over 0.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −419.9% against a −41.2% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

MGP Ingredients, Inc. reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue and EPS growth are shrinking (revenue growth −18.5% latest against +8.1% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 0.8%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

The latest quarter’s profit carries a one-off item larger than the operating base, so the profit curve is shown but does not vote in the stage call.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

29.0/100 — rank 2 of 5 in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 59% evidence confidence

MGP Ingredients, Inc. scores 29.0 out of 100 against the 5 companies it is compared with in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries, ranking 2. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 8 + 8.7 + 9.3 + 3 = 29. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. reported $0.1 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −8.3% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −3.8% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.5 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.5 B.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. reported $0.1 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −8.3% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −3.8% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $0.5 B. The last four reported quarters add to $0.5 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $0.5 B (−22.9% on the year), capping 4 years at −3.8% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.1 B, −8.3% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −17.6% growth against the decade's −3.8% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −18.5% over the last 4 quarters against −18.6%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: −154.5% this quarter (−154.5 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s operating margin is −154.5% in the Mar 26 quarter, −154.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −16.7% to 20.6%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s operating margin is −154.5% in the Mar 26 quarter, −154.5 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −16.7% to 20.6%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −154.5%, −154.5 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −16.7%–20.6%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −154.5 pp year on year while gross margin went −6.0 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit null in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. posted a net loss of $0.1 B in the Mar 26 quarter. That quarter carries a one-off item larger than its own revenue, so the year-on-year figure is an artefact rather than a trading result. The full FY25 year was a loss of $0.1 B. That loss is 118.2% of the quarter's revenue.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. posted a net loss of $0.1 B in the Mar 26 quarter. That quarter carries a one-off item larger than its own revenue, so the year-on-year figure is an artefact rather than a trading result. The full FY25 year was a loss of $0.1 B. That loss is 118.2% of the quarter's revenue.

Mar 26 profit was $−0.1 B, null year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $−0.1 B (−466.7%).

🚨 Read this profit with care: at $−0.1 B it is larger than the whole quarter's revenue of $0.1 B — no operating business earns more than it sells, so this is a one-off item (a debt-to-equity conversion, a tax write-back or an asset sale), not money the business earned. The underlying operations are running at −154.5% operating margin; the year-on-year jump and any P/E built on this number are artefacts of the one-off, not a real earnings turn.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 108% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 108% of MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.1 B of operating cash against $−0.1 B of profit. After $0.1 B of capital spending, $0.1 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.1 B against reported profit of $−0.1 B, leaving free cash of $0.1 B after $0.1 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 108% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $0.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

MGP Ingredients, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is −34% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +3.6 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. earns a ROE of −15% in FY25. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +3.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is −20.4% net margin on 0.44× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is −15%.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): −20.4% net margin × 0.44× asset turns × 1.72× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −15.4% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 8.5% − 4.9% = a +3.6 pp spread. The 4.9% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.44.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. paid $0.48 per share over the last four reported quarters. The most recent declaration was $0.12 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $18.7 that is a trailing yield of 2.57%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. paid $0.48 per share over the last four reported quarters. The most recent declaration was $0.12 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $18.7 that is a trailing yield of 2.57%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. paid $0.48 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.12 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $18.7 the trailing twelve months work out to 2.57% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.

→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. carries total debt of $0.2 B against shareholder equity of $0.6 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.36. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of $0.2 B against shareholder equity of $0.6 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.36. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 6.5% of the float.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

6.5% of MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 4.0 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 6.5% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 4.0 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

MGP Ingredients, Inc.: the Z-score reads 2.29. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits in the grey band between the two. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 2.29 sits in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 2.29.

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