ITC Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

ITC Ltd trades at ₹281, in a downtrend and 55 weeks into that stage. That is −15.0% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 0% of a 52-week range of ₹280 to ₹420. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (14 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 55 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹281 it trades −15.0% versus its 200-day average and sits at 0% of its 52-week range (₹280–₹420).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.3 years the stock moved +40% while the NIFTY 500 moved +274% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (14 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-05-15) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 11th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

ITC Ltd trades at 17.0× P/E, near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 11% of the time. Its long-run median P/E is 25.3×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 17.0× is near the bottom of its own range — cheaper only 11% of the time, against a long-run median of 25.3× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −40.5% against a −33.6% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +7.6%/yr price move, ~+9.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−1.7 pp from the multiple (compressing); over 10y, of the +1.9%/yr price move, ~+7.9%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−6.0 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Topping out Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

ITC Ltd reads as topping out on its fundamental arc. Topping out — profit and EPS growth have decelerated hard (profit growth +69.8% at its peak → −40.0% latest) while ROCE still reads 37.3%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: decelerating from a peak is where good stories quietly end — the multiple usually notices late.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

53.5/100 — rank 3 of 3 in Cigarettes & Tobacco Products · 91% evidence confidence

ITC Ltd scores 53.5 out of 100 against the 3 companies it is compared with in Cigarettes & Tobacco Products, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 15.6 + 22.5 + 7.9 + 7.5 = 53.5. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

ITC Ltd reported ₹17,825 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −5.0% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹78,868 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹78,869 Cr.

ITC Ltd reported ₹17,825 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −5.0% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 7.2% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹78,868 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹78,869 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹78,868 Cr (+4.7% on the year), capping 10 years at 7.2% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹17,825 Cr, −5.0% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.0% growth against the decade's 7.2% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +4.7% over the last 4 quarters against +6.8%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −40.0% vs +0.6%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 39.0% this quarter (+4.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

ITC Ltd's operating margin is 39.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 34.0% to 39.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

ITC Ltd's operating margin is 39.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, +4.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 34.0% to 39.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 39.0%, +4.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 34.0%–39.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +4.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +8.9 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −72.4% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

ITC Ltd earned ₹5,470 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −72.4% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹21,018 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 8.3%. That is 30.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹19,808 Cr.

ITC Ltd earned ₹5,470 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −72.4% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹21,018 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 8.3%. That is 30.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹19,808 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹5,470 Cr, −72.4% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹21,018 Cr (−40.0%), and the 10-year compound rate is 8.3%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −5.0% and the margin +4.0 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −16.6% vs revenue +5.0%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 69% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 69% of ITC Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — most of the profit is real cash. In FY26 that was ₹18,464 Cr of operating cash against ₹21,018 Cr of profit. After ₹2,710 Cr of capital spending, ₹15,754 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹18,464 Cr against reported profit of ₹21,018 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹15,754 Cr after ₹2,710 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 69% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 69%: the cash cycle stretched 35 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 35 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: the 164-day cycle, in money terms.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

ITC Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 164 days in FY26, up from 129 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹66.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹78,868 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹216 Cr, so roughly ₹35,437 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 18 days, inventory at 209 days — roughly 6.9 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 164 days, looser than FY21's 129.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 209 days to sell; customers pay about 18 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 63 days — netting out to the 164-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹78,868 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹216 Cr — so the 164-day loop keeps roughly ₹35,437 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹66.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹4,875 Cr of depreciation — spending at or below maintenance level. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1,602 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 39% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +24.8 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

ITC Ltd earns a ROCE of 39% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 28% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +24.8 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 26.6% net margin on 0.84× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 39%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 28% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 26.6% net margin × 0.84× asset turns × 1.29× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 28.8% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 36.8% − 12.0% = a +24.8 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every rupee reinvested creates more than a rupee of value — the engine compounds.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.03.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

ITC Ltd carries total debt of ₹2,399 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹72,873 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.03 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.00 in FY22 to 0.03 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹2,399 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹72,873 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.03. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.00 (FY22) to 0.03 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions cut 6.2 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 6.2 points of ITC Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 34.2% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +5.1 points over the same window, to 49.1%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −6.2 points over 8 quarters to 34.2%; Domestic institutions: +5.1 points over 8 quarters to 49.1%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −6.2 points against domestic institutions +5.1 points over 8 quarters — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

ITC Ltd: the Z-score reads 16.98. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 16.98 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 16.98.

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