InterContinental Hotels Group PLC

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC trades at $162, in a confirmed uptrend and 52 weeks into that stage. That is +13.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 80% of a 52-week range of $119 to $173. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 10 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 52 of stage 2. At $162 it trades +13.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 80% of its 52-week range ($119–$173).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +296% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 10 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC trades at 31.4× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 31.4× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +26.3% against a +37.1% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +19.7%/yr price move, ~+67.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−47.7 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: revenue growth has eased from +68.6% at its peak to +36.3% but is still expanding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

The return-on-capital curve is not shown — net worth is negative, so a return on capital is not a meaningful number in any basis. This is a distressed balance sheet, and the stage is read from the growth curves alone.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

56.4/100 — rank 7 of 7 in Lodging · 35% evidence confidence · provisional, ranked below fully-evidenced peers

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC scores 56.4 out of 100 against the 7 companies it is compared with in Lodging, ranking 7. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 17.4 + 14.6 + 10.5 + 13.9 = 56.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported $2.7 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +2.7% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 15.6% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $5.2 B. The last four reported quarters add to $10.1 B.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported $2.7 B of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +2.7% year on year. That is the 8th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 15.6% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $5.2 B. The last four reported quarters add to $10.1 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $5.2 B (+5.5% on the year), capping 4 years at 15.6% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed $2.7 B, +2.7% year on year — the 8th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +5.9% growth against the decade's 15.6% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +36.3% over the last 4 quarters against +51.6%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +23.0% vs +1,079.0%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 21.3% this quarter (+1.3 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's operating margin is 21.3% in the Dec 25 quarter, +1.3 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.2% to 23.2%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's operating margin is 21.3% in the Dec 25 quarter, +1.3 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.2% to 23.2%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.3%, +1.3 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.2%–23.2%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +1.3 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.1 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +3.6% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +3.6% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.8 B. The 4-year compound rate is 29.5%. That is 10.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.3 B.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +3.6% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.8 B. The 4-year compound rate is 29.5%. That is 10.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.3 B.

Dec 25 profit was $0.3 B, +3.6% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.8 B (+20.6%), and the 4-year compound rate is 29.5%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +2.7% and the margin +1.3 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +2.6% vs revenue +5.9%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 117% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 117% of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.9 B of operating cash against $0.8 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $0.9 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.9 B against reported profit of $0.8 B, leaving free cash of $0.9 B after $0.0 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 117% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $0.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is null% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +17.6 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC earns a ROE of −28% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −39% in FY23. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +17.6 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 14.6% net margin on 0.97× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is −28%, recovered from a FY23 trough of −39% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 14.6% net margin × 0.97× asset turns × −1.95× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −27.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 26.4% − 8.8% = a +17.6 pp spread. The 8.8% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is not in our numbers.

Dividend

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

→ No payout to follow. The cash question becomes what the business does with what it earns instead.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

A borrowings history is not in our numbers for this stock.

A borrowings history is not in our numbers for this stock, so this section says that plainly rather than working around it.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC, so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 1.6 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC: the Z-score reads 3.01. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 3.01 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 3.01.

Frequently asked questions