Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. trades at $9.1, between stages. That is −5.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 26% of a 52-week range of $6 to $19. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 9 straight weeks.

Today the stock is between stages. At $9.1 it trades −5.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 26% of its 52-week range ($6–$19).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.0 years the stock moved −31% while the S&P 500 moved +19% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 9 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. trades at 136.1× P/E, against too little history to rank. Its long-run median P/E is 193.7×, measured across 0.6 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 136.1× is against too little history to rank, against a long-run median of 193.7× measured over 0.6 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −675.0% against a −34.3% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE slipping at 0.7% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

The latest quarter’s profit carries a one-off item larger than the operating base, so the profit curve is shown but does not vote in the stage call.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

27.6/100 — rank 8 of 10 in Grocery Stores · 53% evidence confidence

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. scores 27.6 out of 100 against the 10 companies it is compared with in Grocery Stores, ranking 8. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 10.4 + 4.2 + 8.9 + 4.1 = 27.6. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. reported $1.2 B of revenue in the Apr 26 quarter, +3.5% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 11.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at $4.7 B. The last four reported quarters add to $4.7 B.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. reported $1.2 B of revenue in the Apr 26 quarter, +3.5% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 11.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at $4.7 B. The last four reported quarters add to $4.7 B.

FY26 revenue came in at $4.7 B (+7.3% on the year), capping 4 years at 11.1% compound. The latest quarter (Apr 26) printed $1.2 B, +3.5% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +4.4% growth against the decade's 11.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +6.0% over the last 4 quarters against +8.3%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: −15.4% this quarter (−13.6 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s operating margin is −15.4% in the Apr 26 quarter, −13.6 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −4.7% to 3.3%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s operating margin is −15.4% in the Apr 26 quarter, −13.6 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −4.7% to 3.3%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is −15.4%, −13.6 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −4.7%–3.3%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −13.6 pp year on year while gross margin went −0.2 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit null in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. posted a net loss of $0.2 B in the Apr 26 quarter. The full FY26 year was a loss of $0.2 B. That loss is 15.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost $0.02 B. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. posted a net loss of $0.2 B in the Apr 26 quarter. The full FY26 year was a loss of $0.2 B. That loss is 15.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier lost $0.02 B. 3 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Apr 26 profit was $−0.2 B, null year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed $−0.2 B (−650.0%).

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 316% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 316% of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was $0.2 B of operating cash against $−0.2 B of profit. After $0.2 B of capital spending, $0.0 B was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of $0.2 B against reported profit of $−0.2 B, leaving free cash of $0.0 B after $0.2 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 316% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $1.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $1.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 7.1% of FY26 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $1.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is −38% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −0.7 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. earns a ROE of −22% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −0.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is −4.7% net margin on 1.52× asset turns.

FY26 ROE is −22%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): −4.7% net margin × 1.52× asset turns × 3.15× balance-sheet leverage ≈ −22.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 2.8% − 3.5% = a −0.7 pp spread. The 3.5% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 2.28.

Dividend

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

→ No payout to follow. The cash question becomes what the business does with what it earns instead.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. carries total debt of $1.8 B against shareholder equity of $0.8 B as of Apr 26, a debt-to-equity of 2.27. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.45 in FY22 to 1.85 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Apr 26: total debt of $1.8 B against shareholder equity of $0.8 B — a debt-to-equity of 2.27. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.45 (FY22) to 1.85 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 23.0% of the float.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

23.0% of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s tradable float is currently sold short — a large bloc is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 8.6 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 23.0% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 8.6 days to buy those positions back. A large bloc is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: the Z-score reads 2.07. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits in the grey band between the two. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 2.07 sits in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 2.07.

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