The GEO Group, Inc.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

The GEO Group, Inc. trades at $30.7, losing momentum at the top and 16 weeks into that stage. That is +57.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 99% of a 52-week range of $13 to $31. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 14 straight weeks.

Today the stock is losing momentum at the top — week 16 of stage 3. At $30.7 it trades +57.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 99% of its 52-week range ($13–$31).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +37% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 14 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 46th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

The GEO Group, Inc. trades at 15.5× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (46th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 16.5×, measured across 4.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 15.5× is mid-range by its own standards (46th percentile), against a long-run median of 16.5× measured over 4.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +727.3% against a +17.8% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +60.5%/yr price move, ~+28.4%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+32.1 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

The GEO Group, Inc. reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — profit growth bottomed 6 quarters ago at −63.6% and has held its recovery at +575.0%, ROCE holding at 8.8%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

73.1/100 — rank 1 of 14 in Security & Protection Services · 82% evidence confidence

The GEO Group, Inc. scores 73.1 out of 100 against the 14 companies it is compared with in Security & Protection Services, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 25.9 + 11 + 16.2 + 20 = 73.1. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

The GEO Group, Inc. reported $0.7 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +18.3% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 3.9% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $2.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $2.7 B.

The GEO Group, Inc. reported $0.7 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +18.3% year on year. That is the 4th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 3.9% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $2.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $2.7 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $2.6 B (+8.7% on the year), capping 4 years at 3.9% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.7 B, +18.3% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +13.2% growth against the decade's 3.9% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +13.2% over the last 4 quarters against +6.6%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +575.0% vs +64.3%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 12.7% this quarter (+2.7 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

The GEO Group, Inc.'s operating margin is 12.7% in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.9% to 16.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The GEO Group, Inc.'s operating margin is 12.7% in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.9% to 16.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 12.7%, +2.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 9.9%–16.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +2.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.4 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +100.0% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

The GEO Group, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +100.0% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.3 B. The 4-year compound rate is 33.0%. That is 5.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.

The GEO Group, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +100.0% year on year. It is the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.3 B. The 4-year compound rate is 33.0%. That is 5.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.0 B, +100.0% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.3 B (+733.3%), and the 4-year compound rate is 33.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +18.3% and the margin +2.7 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +205.6% vs revenue +13.2%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 151% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 151% of The GEO Group, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.1 B of operating cash against $0.3 B of profit. After $0.2 B of capital spending, $−0.1 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $0.1 B against reported profit of $0.3 B, leaving free cash of $−0.1 B after $0.2 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 151% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $0.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

The GEO Group, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 19% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −0.4 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

The GEO Group, Inc. earns a ROE of 17% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −0.4 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 9.5% net margin on 0.68× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 17%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 9.5% net margin × 0.68× asset turns × 2.56× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 16.5% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 7.7% − 8.1% = a −0.4 pp spread. The 8.1% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 1.11.

Dividend

The GEO Group, Inc. pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.

The GEO Group, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.

→ No payout to follow. The cash question becomes what the business does with what it earns instead.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

The GEO Group, Inc. carries total debt of $1.7 B against shareholder equity of $1.5 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 1.11. On the annual view that ratio went from 3.35 in FY20 to 1.15 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of $1.7 B against shareholder equity of $1.5 B — a debt-to-equity of 1.11. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 3.35 (FY20) to 1.15 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 9.0% of the float.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

9.0% of The GEO Group, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 4.5 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

The latest reading: 9.0% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 4.5 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.

Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

The GEO Group, Inc.: the Z-score reads 1.95. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits in the grey band between the two. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 1.95 sits in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 1.95.

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