Avenue Supermarts Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd trades at ₹3,952, in a confirmed uptrend and 13 weeks into that stage. That is −4.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 29% of a 52-week range of ₹3,614 to ₹4,793. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (10 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 13 of stage 2. At ₹3,952 it trades −4.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 29% of its 52-week range (₹3,614–₹4,793).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 9.3 years the stock moved +541% while the NIFTY 500 moved +194% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (10 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-09) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 2nd percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd trades at 85.7× P/E, about the cheapest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 116.3×, measured across 9.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 85.7× is about the cheapest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 116.3× measured over 9.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +9.5% against a −2.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +3.4%/yr price move, ~+22.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−19.2 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is low against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Consistent Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Avenue Supermarts Ltd reads as consistent on its fundamental arc. Consistent — revenue, profit and EPS growth have stayed positive through the window, with ROCE at 18.3% and holding. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.

Why it matters: steady curves with healthy returns are the compounding setup — the risk is the price, not the business.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

43.9/100 — rank 1 of 3 in Retail - Departmental Stores · 90% evidence confidence

Avenue Supermarts Ltd scores 43.9 out of 100 against the 3 companies it is compared with in Retail - Departmental Stores, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 19.1 + 16 + 5 + 3.8 = 43.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd reported ₹18,795 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +14.9% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 23.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹68,821 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹71,256 Cr.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd reported ₹18,795 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +14.9% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 23.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹68,821 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹71,256 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹68,821 Cr (+15.9% on the year), capping 10 years at 23.1% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹18,795 Cr, +14.9% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +15.7% growth against the decade's 23.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +15.6% over the last 4 quarters against +16.0%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +12.9% vs +7.4%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 8.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd's operating margin is 8.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0% to 9.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd's operating margin is 8.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0% to 9.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 8.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 7.0%–9.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.0 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.5 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +11.3% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd earned ₹860 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +11.3% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,970 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 25.0%. That is 4.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹773 Cr.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd earned ₹860 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +11.3% year on year. It is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹2,970 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 25.0%. That is 4.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹773 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹860 Cr, +11.3% year on year — the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹2,970 Cr (+9.7%), and the 10-year compound rate is 25.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +14.9% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +13.1% vs revenue +15.7%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 106% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 106% of Avenue Supermarts Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was ₹3,467 Cr of operating cash against ₹2,970 Cr of profit. After ₹5,122 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,655 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹3,467 Cr against reported profit of ₹2,970 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,655 Cr after ₹5,122 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 106% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why conversion sits at 106%: the cash cycle held roughly steady between FY21 and FY26 — so conversion tracks profitability rather than the cycle.

Router verdict: the bigger cash user is investment — capital spending ran 4.5× depreciation over three years, so the next section's job is to check what that build-out is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: ₹11,859 Cr of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Avenue Supermarts Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 29 days in FY26, down from 30 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹11,859 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹68,821 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹189 Cr, so roughly ₹5,468 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 1 days, inventory at 37 days — roughly 1.2 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 29 days, tighter than FY21's 30.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 37 days to sell; customers pay about 1 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 8 days — netting out to the 29-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹68,821 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹189 Cr — so the 29-day loop keeps roughly ₹5,468 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹11,859 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹2,638 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1,300 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 17% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −0.2 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd earns a ROCE of 17% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 13% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −0.2 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 4.3% net margin on 2.33× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 17%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 13% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 4.3% net margin × 2.33× asset turns × 1.21× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 12.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is modest — this is an earned return, not a borrowed one.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 11.8% − 12.0% = a −0.2 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.10.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd carries total debt of ₹2,425 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹24,462 Cr as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.10 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.05 in FY22 to 0.10 in FY26. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.

Jun 26: total debt of ₹2,425 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹24,462 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.10. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.05 (FY22) to 0.10 (FY26). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register is quiet.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

No holder of Avenue Supermarts Ltd moved a full percentage point over the last two years — the register is quiet. Promoters moved −0.2 points over the same window, to 74.5%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +0.7 points over 8 quarters to 8.7%; Promoters: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 74.5%; Foreign institutions: +0.0 points over 8 quarters to 9.2%.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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