Blue Bird Corporation
BLBDBlue Bird Corporation's price has outrun its earnings. +60.5% in a year against EPS +22.8% — the market is paying now for delivery later.
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +60.5% in a year while annual EPS moved +22.8% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (30 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 80th percentile of its own 3-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read mixed — profit +0.0% year on year, and 158% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Blue Bird Corporation trades at $73.9, in a confirmed uptrend and 30 weeks into that stage. That is +23.2% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 85% of a 52-week range of $47 to $79. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 26 straight weeks.
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 30 of stage 2. At $73.9 it trades +23.2% versus its 200-day average and sits at 85% of its 52-week range ($47–$79).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +518% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 26 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 80th percentile of its own range.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
Blue Bird Corporation trades at 18.1× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (80th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 14.6×, measured across 2.8 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 18.1× is at the pricey end of its own range (80th percentile), against a long-run median of 14.6× measured over 2.8 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +22.8% against a +60.5% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +52.4%/yr price move, ~+76.5%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−24.1 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Blue Bird Corporation reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 48.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 12 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.
Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +9.6% | +22.8% | — | — |
| Profit | +18.2% | — | — | — |
| EPS | +22.8% | — | — | — |
| Stock price | +60.5% | +52.4% | +24.2% | +18.0% |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
67.0/100 — rank 1 of 21 in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 82% evidence confidence
Blue Bird Corporation scores 67.0 out of 100 against the 21 companies it is compared with in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery, ranking 1. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 20.7 + 15.6 + 15.4 + 15.3 = 67. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Blue Bird Corporation reported $0.3 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.8% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 21.5% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.5 B. The last four reported quarters add to $1.5 B.
Blue Bird Corporation reported $0.3 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.8% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 21.5% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.5 B. The last four reported quarters add to $1.5 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $1.5 B (+9.6% on the year), capping 4 years at 21.5% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.3 B, −2.8% year on year.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +10.5% growth against the decade's 21.5% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +10.4% over the last 4 quarters against +8.7%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +27.3% vs +24.7%/yr — stabilising.
→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 11.4% this quarter (+3.1 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Blue Bird Corporation's operating margin is 11.4% in the Mar 26 quarter, +3.1 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −5.0% to 11.5%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
Blue Bird Corporation's operating margin is 11.4% in the Mar 26 quarter, +3.1 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −5.0% to 11.5%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 11.4%, +3.1 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −5.0%–11.5%, and FY25's 11.5% is the top of that band — a record year.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +3.1 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.6 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.
Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.
→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +0.0% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Blue Bird Corporation earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. That is 8.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.
Blue Bird Corporation earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. That is 8.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B.
Mar 26 profit was $0.0 B, +0.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.1 B (+18.2%).
🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −2.8% and the margin +3.1 pp — the quarter was margin-led: most of the profit growth came from keeping more of each sale.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +33.3% vs revenue +10.5%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 158% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 158% of Blue Bird Corporation's reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $0.2 B of operating cash against $0.1 B of profit. After $0.0 B of capital spending, $0.1 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $0.2 B against reported profit of $0.1 B, leaving free cash of $0.1 B after $0.0 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 158% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $0.0 B of building over 3 years.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Blue Bird Corporation does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $0.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 0.0% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $0.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 55% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +105.1 pp.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
Blue Bird Corporation earns a ROE of 50% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 0% in FY21. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +105.1 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 8.8% net margin on 2.35× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is 50%, recovered from a FY21 trough of 0% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 8.8% net margin × 2.35× asset turns × 2.42× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 50.0% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 116.5% − 11.4% = a +105.1 pp spread. The 11.4% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. A spread this wide means every dollar reinvested creates more than a dollar of value — the engine compounds.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.30.
Dividend
Blue Bird Corporation pays no dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters it has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them, which makes the cash-flow and reinvestment sections the place that cash shows up.
Blue Bird Corporation does not currently pay a dividend. Across the last 12 reported quarters the company has declared no dividend per share, so there is no payout history to chart and no yield to quote. Companies at this stage typically reinvest earnings instead of distributing them.
→ No payout to follow. The cash question becomes what the business does with what it earns instead.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
Blue Bird Corporation carries total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.3 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.30 — effectively unlevered. On the annual view that ratio went from −7.33 in FY21 to 0.35 in FY25. The returns elsewhere on this page are therefore earned rather than borrowed.
Mar 26: total debt of $0.1 B against shareholder equity of $0.3 B — a debt-to-equity of 0.30. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from −7.33 (FY21) to 0.35 (FY25). The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 12.7% of the float.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
12.7% of Blue Bird Corporation's tradable float is currently sold short — a large bloc is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 9.1 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 12.7% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 9.1 days to buy those positions back. A large bloc is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Blue Bird Corporation: the Z-score reads 6.03. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits well clear of distress. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
Why it matters: a Z-score of 6.03 sits well clear of the distress zone — the balance sheet is not the risk here.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 6.03.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Bird Corporation this page | 18.1× | $2B | No read | |||
| Caterpillar Inc. | 41.9× | $387B | Mixed | |||
| Deere & Company | 36.3× | $173B | Turning around | |||
| PACCAR Inc | 28.1× | $73B | Turning around | |||
| CNH Industrial N.V. | 35.8× | $14B | Deteriorating | |||
| Oshkosh Corporation | 17.4× | $10B | Deteriorating | |||
| AGCO Corporation | 11.9× | $9B | Turning around | |||
| Terex Corporation | 47.4× | $8B | Turning around | |||
| Federal Signal Corporation | 26.8× | $7B | Consistent | |||
| Alamo Group Inc. | 19.6× | $2B | Deteriorating | |||
| Astec Industries, Inc. | 49.0× | $1B | No read | |||
| Lindsay Corporation | 22.1× | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| Aebi Schmidt Holding AG | 111.6× | $1B | No read | |||
| Hyster-Yale, Inc. | — | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| Wabash National Corporation | — | $1B | Turning around | |||
| Titan International, Inc. | — | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| The Manitowoc Company, Inc. | 70.7× | $1B | No read | |||
| Columbus McKinnon Corporation | — | $0B | Turning around | |||
| Gencor Industries, Inc. | 16.9× | $0B | Mixed | |||
| SunScout Holding Limited | 121.3× | $0B | — | — | — | — |
| CEA Industries Inc. | 1.0× | $0B | No read |
Frequently asked questions
What is Blue Bird Corporation's stock price today?
Blue Bird Corporation trades at $73.9, +60.5% over the past year. The company is valued at $2.0 B. The stock sits at 85% of its 52-week range of $47–$79, +23.2% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 30 weeks in. — as of 29 July 2026.
What were Blue Bird Corporation's latest quarterly results?
Blue Bird Corporation reported revenue of $0.3 B and net profit of $0.0 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue fell 2.8% and profit rose 0.0% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.90. The operating margin was 11.4%, 3.1 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Blue Bird Corporation's revenue?
Blue Bird Corporation reported revenue of $0.3 B in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.8% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $1.5 B (+9.6%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 21.5% a year. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Blue Bird Corporation's profit?
Blue Bird Corporation earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.1 B. The operating margin ran 11.4% in the latest quarter. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Blue Bird Corporation's market cap?
Blue Bird Corporation's market capitalisation is $2.0 B at a stock price of $73.9. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Blue Bird Corporation's P/E ratio?
Blue Bird Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.1×, at the 80th percentile of its own 3-year range, against a long-run median of 14.6×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Blue Bird Corporation pay a dividend?
No — Blue Bird Corporation has declared no dividend per share in any of its last 12 reported quarters, so there is no payout history and no yield to quote. That is a reading of the filed statements, not an estimate. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Blue Bird Corporation overvalued?
On its own history, Blue Bird Corporation looks expensive against its own history: its P/E of 18.1× sits at the 80th percentile of its 3-year range (long-run median 14.6×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. One caveat: margins are the best this company has ever printed — cheap on record margins is not the same thing as cheap. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Blue Bird Corporation growing?
The picture is mixed for Blue Bird Corporation: latest-quarter revenue −2.8% year on year, profit +0.0%, and the margin +3.1 pp at 11.4%. The earnings engine currently reads: mixed — as of 29 July 2026.
How is Blue Bird Corporation performing?
Blue Bird Corporation is in a confirmed uptrend, 30 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue fell 2.8% and profit rose 0.0% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 26 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 29 July 2026.
What stage is Blue Bird Corporation in?
Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 48.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +10.4% latest, profit growth +0.0% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Blue Bird Corporation in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 30 of stage 2), trading +23.2% versus its 200-day average and at 85% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Blue Bird Corporation beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Blue Bird Corporation has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 26 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +518% against the S&P 500's +248% — ahead of the index over the full window. — as of 29 July 2026.
Will Blue Bird Corporation's stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Blue Bird Corporation. What it measures instead: the stock price is $73.9, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 30 weeks in. Its P/E of 18.1× sits at the 80th percentile of its own 3-year range. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is the market betting against Blue Bird Corporation?
Yes — short interest is 12.7% of Blue Bird Corporation's tradable float, about 9.1 days to cover at typical volumes. A crowded short: a large bloc is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Blue Bird Corporation have too much debt?
No — Blue Bird Corporation's debt-to-equity is 0.30. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. The returns on this page are earned, not borrowed — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Blue Bird Corporation's capex?
Blue Bird Corporation spent $0.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $0.0 B. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Blue Bird Corporation's cash flow?
Blue Bird Corporation generated $0.2 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $0.1 B of free cash flow after $0.0 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.1 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Blue Bird Corporation's profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 158% of Blue Bird Corporation's reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $0.2 B against reported profit of $0.1 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 29 July 2026.
How financially safe is Blue Bird Corporation?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 6.03 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That sits well clear of trouble. — as of 29 July 2026.
Where is Blue Bird Corporation in its business cycle?
Blue Bird Corporation's FY25 operating margin was 11.5%, against a 5-year band of −5.0%–11.5%: the top of the band — a record year. Record profitability is late-cycle territory: every ratio flatters at the top, and the story leans on margins holding. The latest quarter ran 11.4%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 29 July 2026.
What could break the Blue Bird Corporation story?
The sharpest disagreement: the price moved +60.5% in a year while annual EPS moved +22.8% — the difference is re-rating, and re-rating has to be repaid with earnings. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Blue Bird Corporation a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Blue Bird Corporation's price has outrun its earnings. +60.5% in a year against EPS +22.8% — the market is paying now for delivery later. The sharpest open question: whether earnings grow into a price that has already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 29 July 2026.