Bajaj Auto Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Bajaj Auto Ltd trades at ₹10,443, in a confirmed uptrend and 43 weeks into that stage. That is +8.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 87% of a 52-week range of ₹8,680 to ₹10,712. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (5 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 43 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹10,443 it trades +8.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 87% of its 52-week range (₹8,680–₹10,712).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.4 years the stock moved +367% while the NIFTY 500 moved +280% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (5 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-24) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 75th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Bajaj Auto Ltd trades at 26.0× P/E, at the pricey end of its own range (75th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 20.5×, measured across 10.4 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 26.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (75th percentile), against a long-run median of 20.5× measured over 10.4 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +46.6% against a +25.1% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +21.6%/yr price move, ~+16.7%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.9 pp from the multiple (expanding); over 10y, of the +14.5%/yr price move, ~+11.3%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+3.2 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Bajaj Auto Ltd reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −5.0% at the trough to +52.2%, a 4-quarter improving streak, ROCE holding at 28.0%. The read is built from 8 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

59.9/100 — rank 3 of 8 in Auto - 2 & 3 Wheelers · 83% evidence confidence

Bajaj Auto Ltd scores 59.9 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Auto - 2 & 3 Wheelers, ranking 3. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21.4 + 17 + 8.6 + 12.9 = 59.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Bajaj Auto Ltd reported ₹21,689 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +65.1% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 10.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹62,905 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹71,460 Cr.

Bajaj Auto Ltd reported ₹21,689 Cr of revenue in the Jun 26 quarter, +65.1% year on year. That is the 11th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 10.8% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹62,905 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹71,460 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹62,905 Cr (+23.4% on the year), capping 10 years at 10.8% compound. The latest quarter (Jun 26) printed ₹21,689 Cr, +65.1% year on year — the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +37.0% growth against the decade's 10.8% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +36.9% over the last 4 quarters against +24.0%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit +52.2% vs +20.1%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 21.0% this quarter (+0.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Bajaj Auto Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Bajaj Auto Ltd's operating margin is 21.0% in the Jun 26 quarter, +0.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. That is the widest this company has ever printed on a full-year basis. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.0% to 21.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 21.0%, +0.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 13 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 16.0%–21.0%, and FY26's 21.0% is the top of that band — a record year.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −0.4 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.5 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

Worth repeating from the valuation section: cheap against its own history on record margins is not the same thing as cheap — a record margin flatters every ratio built on top of it.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +44.3% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Bajaj Auto Ltd earned ₹3,189 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +44.3% year on year. It is the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹10,574 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 10.0%. That is 14.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹2,210 Cr.

Bajaj Auto Ltd earned ₹3,189 Cr of net profit in the Jun 26 quarter, +44.3% year on year. It is the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹10,574 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 10.0%. That is 14.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹2,210 Cr.

Jun 26 profit was ₹3,189 Cr, +44.3% year on year — the 5th consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹10,574 Cr (+44.4%), and the 10-year compound rate is 10.0%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +65.1% and the margin +0.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +54.1% vs revenue +37.0%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra rupee of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 30% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 30% of Bajaj Auto Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹2,597 Cr of operating cash against ₹10,574 Cr of profit. After ₹10,389 Cr of capital spending, ₹−7,792 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹2,597 Cr against reported profit of ₹10,574 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−7,792 Cr after ₹10,389 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 30% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 30%: the cash cycle stretched 21 days between FY21 and FY26 — more of each rupee of profit waits inside the cycle before arriving. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: conversion is below par and the cash cycle has stretched 21 days — the next section's job is to find where the cash is stuck.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: the −1-day cycle, in money terms.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Bajaj Auto Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −1 days in FY26, up from −22 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹11,979 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹62,905 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹172 Cr, so roughly ₹−172 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 20 days, inventory at 54 days — roughly 1.8 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −1 days, looser than FY21's −22.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 54 days to sell; customers pay about 20 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 76 days — netting out to the −1-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹62,905 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹172 Cr — so the −1-day loop keeps roughly ₹−172 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹11,979 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,424 Cr of depreciation — the company is building well ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹1,521 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: the working-capital loop is the cash sink the router flagged — watch the cycle, not the P&L.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 28%.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Bajaj Auto Ltd earns a ROCE of 28% in FY26. That is up from a trough of 23% in FY22. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 16.8% net margin on 0.82× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 28%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 23% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 16.8% net margin × 0.82× asset turns × 1.98× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 27.3% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.58.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Bajaj Auto Ltd carries ₹22,713 Cr of borrowings against ₹38,832 Cr of equity in FY26, a debt-to-equity of 0.58. Operating profit covers the interest bill 11×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹121 Cr to ₹22,713 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹11,979 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY26: borrowings of ₹22,713 Cr against equity of ₹38,832 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.58. Operating profit covers the interest bill 11×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹121 Cr to ₹22,713 Cr while capital spending ran ₹11,979 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Foreign institutions cut 5.2 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Foreign institutions cut 5.2 points of Bajaj Auto Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes foreign institutions to 9.0% of the company. Domestic institutions moved +4.7 points over the same window, to 13.4%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Foreign institutions: −5.2 points over 8 quarters to 9.0%; Domestic institutions: +4.7 points over 8 quarters to 13.4%; Promoters: −0.1 points over 8 quarters to 55.0%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −5.2 points against domestic institutions +4.7 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Bajaj Auto Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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