AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
AVBAvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew −2.6% in a year against a −5.6% price move.
Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk.
The price is topping out (6 weeks in) while the P/E sits at the 58th percentile of its own 4-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +37.5% year on year, and 158% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: the next one or two quarters of delivery.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. trades at $190, losing momentum at the top and 6 weeks into that stage. That is +5.8% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 84% of a 52-week range of $161 to $196. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 6 straight weeks.
Today the stock is losing momentum at the top — week 6 of stage 3. At $190 it trades +5.8% versus its 200-day average and sits at 84% of its 52-week range ($161–$196).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +3% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 6 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 58th percentile of its own range.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. trades at 26.1× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (58th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 24.9×, measured across 4.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 26.1× is mid-range by its own standards (58th percentile), against a long-run median of 24.9× measured over 4.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −2.6% against a −5.6% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.
The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +0.8%/yr price move, ~−3.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+4.0 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +52.4% at its peak to +0.9% but is still expanding, ROCE holding at 4.3%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.5% | +5.5% | — | — |
| Profit | −1.9% | −2.4% | — | — |
| EPS | −2.6% | −3.0% | — | — |
| Stock price | −5.6% | +0.8% | −3.5% | +0.3% |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
59.7/100 — rank 2 of 22 in REIT - Residential · 60% evidence confidence
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. scores 59.7 out of 100 against the 22 companies it is compared with in REIT - Residential, ranking 2. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 21 + 17.9 + 7.7 + 13.1 = 59.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. reported $0.8 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.7% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 7.3% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $3.0 B. The last four reported quarters add to $3.1 B.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. reported $0.8 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.7% year on year. That is the 12th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 7.3% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $3.0 B. The last four reported quarters add to $3.1 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $3.0 B (+4.5% on the year), capping 4 years at 7.3% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.8 B, +2.7% year on year — the 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +4.1% growth against the decade's 7.3% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +4.1% over the last 4 quarters against +4.7%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +0.9% vs +10.0%/yr — rolling over.
→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 28.6% this quarter (−2.1 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s operating margin is 28.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.1 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 26.6% to 30.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s operating margin is 28.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, −2.1 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 26.6% to 30.6%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 28.6%, −2.1 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 26.6%–30.6%.
🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −2.1 pp year on year while gross margin went −1.7 pp — the loss came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.
→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +37.5% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +37.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $1.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is 1.5%. That is 42.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.2 B.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +37.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $1.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is 1.5%. That is 42.9% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.2 B.
Mar 26 profit was $0.3 B, +37.5% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $1.1 B (−1.9%), and the 4-year compound rate is 1.5%.
Why profit moved: revenue contributed +2.7% and the margin −2.1 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +2.2% vs revenue +4.1%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 158% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 158% of AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $1.7 B of operating cash against $1.1 B of profit. After $2.2 B of capital spending, $−0.5 B was left as free cash.
FY25: operating cash of $1.7 B against reported profit of $1.1 B, leaving free cash of $−0.5 B after $2.2 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 158% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $5.0 B of building over 3 years.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $5.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 54.8% of FY25 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $5.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 9% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −2.7 pp.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. earns a ROE of 9% in FY25. That is up from a trough of 8% in FY23. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −2.7 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 34.9% net margin on 0.14× asset turns.
FY25 ROE is 9%, recovered from a FY23 trough of 8% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 34.9% net margin × 0.14× asset turns × 1.88× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 9.2% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 4.3% − 7.0% = a −2.7 pp spread. The 7.0% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.74.
Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. paid $7.03 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 1.7% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $1.78 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $190 that is a trailing yield of 3.69%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. paid $7.03 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 1.7% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $1.78 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $190 that is a trailing yield of 3.69%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. paid $7.03 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $1.78 for Mar 26. That is up 1.7% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $190 the trailing twelve months work out to 3.69% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.
→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. carries total debt of $9.0 B against shareholder equity of null as of Jun 26, a debt-to-equity of null. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.76 in FY21 to 0.80 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.
Jun 26: total debt of $9.0 B against shareholder equity of null — a debt-to-equity of null. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.76 (FY21) to 0.80 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 2.4% of the float.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
2.4% of AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 2.8 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 2.4% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 2.8 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AvalonBay Communities, Inc. this page | 26.1× | $27B | Mixed | |||
| Equity Residential | 29.5× | $26B | Mixed | |||
| Essex Property Trust, Inc. | 33.1× | $20B | Deteriorating | |||
| Invitation Homes Inc. | 31.6× | $18B | Turning around | |||
| Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | 41.1× | $16B | Deteriorating | |||
| Sun Communities, Inc. | 152.5× | $15B | Turning around | |||
| American Homes 4 Rent | 27.5× | $14B | Mixed | |||
| UDR, Inc. | 24.7× | $14B | No read | |||
| Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. | 31.8× | $13B | Consistent | |||
| Camden Property Trust | 32.0× | $12B | Mixed | |||
| Janus Living, Inc. | — | $9B | — | — | — | — |
| Millrose Properties, Inc. | 10.3× | $5B | — | — | — | — |
| Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | 83.8× | $4B | Improving | |||
| UMH Properties, Inc. | 151.3× | $1B | No read | |||
| National Healthcare Properties, Inc. | — | $1B | No read | |||
| Centerspace | 119.4× | $1B | No read | |||
| NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. | — | $1B | Mixed | |||
| Apartment Investment and Management Company | 0.7× | $0B | No read | |||
| BRT Apartments Corp. | — | $0B | Turning around | |||
| Elme Communities | — | $0B | No read | |||
| Clipper Realty Inc. | — | $0B | No read | |||
| Bluerock Homes Trust, Inc. | — | $0B | No read |
Frequently asked questions
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s stock price today?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. trades at $190, −5.6% over the past year. The company is valued at $27.0 B. The stock sits at 84% of its 52-week range of $161–$196, +5.8% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is topping out, 6 weeks in. — as of 29 July 2026.
What were AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s latest quarterly results?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. reported revenue of $0.8 B and net profit of $0.3 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Revenue rose 2.7% and profit rose 37.5% year on year. Earnings per share were $2.33. The operating margin was 28.6%, 2.1 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s revenue?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. reported revenue of $0.8 B in the Mar 26 quarter, +2.7% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $3.0 B (+4.5%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 7.3% a year. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s profit?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. earned $0.3 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +37.5% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $1.1 B. The operating margin ran 28.6% in the latest quarter. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s market cap?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s market capitalisation is $27.0 B at a stock price of $190. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s P/E ratio?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.1×, at the 58th percentile of its own 4-year range, against a long-run median of 24.9×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 29 July 2026.
Does AvalonBay Communities, Inc. pay a dividend?
Yes — AvalonBay Communities, Inc. declared $1.78 per share for Mar 26, and $7.03 per share across the last four reported quarters. The latest quarter is up 1.7% on the same quarter a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s dividend per share?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s most recently declared dividend is $1.78 per share for Mar 26, giving $7.03 per share over the trailing twelve months. Each figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters for the trailing total. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s dividend yield?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s trailing dividend yield is 3.69%: $7.03 declared per share across the last four reported quarters, against a share price of $190. Each quarter’s figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters and divided by the latest close. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. overvalued?
On its own history, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. looks mid-range against its own history: its P/E of 26.1× sits at the 58th percentile of its 4-year range (long-run median 24.9×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. growing?
Yes — AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is growing: latest-quarter revenue +2.7% year on year, profit +37.5%, and the margin −2.1 pp at 28.6%. The 4-year compound rates are 7.3% (revenue) and 1.5% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 29 July 2026.
How is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. performing?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is topping out, 6 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 2.7% and profit rose 37.5% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 6 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 29 July 2026.
What stage is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. in?
Mixed — growth is normalizing off a hyper-growth base: profit growth has eased from +52.4% at its peak to +0.9% but is still expanding, ROCE holding at 4.3%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +4.1% latest, profit growth +0.9% latest, eps growth +0.4% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 29 July 2026.
Is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. in an uptrend?
It is stalling — the price is topping out (week 6 of stage 3), trading +5.8% versus its 200-day average and at 84% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 29 July 2026.
Is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. beating the market?
On recent form, yes — AvalonBay Communities, Inc. has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 6 straight weeks, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +3% against the S&P 500's +248% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 29 July 2026.
Will AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for AvalonBay Communities, Inc. What it measures instead: the stock price is $190, the price is topping out 6 weeks in. Its P/E of 26.1× sits at the 58th percentile of its own 4-year range. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is the market betting against AvalonBay Communities, Inc.?
Somewhat — short interest is 2.4% of AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s tradable float, about 2.8 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 29 July 2026.
Does AvalonBay Communities, Inc. have too much debt?
It is moderate — AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s debt-to-equity is 0.74. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 29 July 2026.
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s capex?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. spent $5.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY25 alone that was $2.2 B. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s cash flow?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. generated $1.7 B of operating cash flow in FY25 and $−0.5 B of free cash flow after $2.2 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $1.1 B, so operating cash ran ahead of profit. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 158% of AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY25, operating cash was $1.7 B against reported profit of $1.1 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 29 July 2026.
Where is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. in its business cycle?
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s FY25 operating margin was 29.9%, against a 5-year band of 26.6%–30.6%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 28.6%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 29 July 2026.
What could break the AvalonBay Communities, Inc. story?
Biggest watch item: the price is not yet in a confirmed uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 29 July 2026.
Is AvalonBay Communities, Inc. a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s earnings have outrun its stock. EPS grew −2.6% in a year against a −5.6% price move. The sharpest open question: the next one or two quarters of delivery. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 29 July 2026.