Assured Guaranty Ltd.
AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.
The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +49.3% against a +1.5% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery.
The price is topping out (3 weeks in) while the P/BV sits at the 40th percentile of its own 5-year range. Underneath, the last four quarters read deteriorating — profit −50.0% year on year, with the the net margin at 34.6%. What settles it: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at $85.5, losing momentum at the top and 3 weeks into that stage. That is +2.3% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 69% of a 52-week range of $74 to $91. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week.
Today the stock is losing momentum at the top — week 3 of stage 3. At $85.5 it trades +2.3% versus its 200-day average and sits at 69% of its 52-week range ($74–$91).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +236% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 1 straight week — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/BV sits at the 40th percentile of its own range.
Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each $1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at 0.7× P/BV, mid-range by its own standards (40th percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 0.7×, measured across 5.1 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/BV of 0.7× is mid-range by its own standards (40th percentile), against a long-run median of 0.7× measured over 5.1 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
The honest context for that discount: a bank earning about 8% on its equity is worth less per dollar of book, and the market has priced that in rather than overlooked it. The discount closes only if the returns themselves improve.
Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +1.5% — price and book moved together, holding the multiple in its range.
The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +12.3%/yr price move, ~+7.4%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+4.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: Improving Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Assured Guaranty Ltd. reads as improving on its fundamental arc. Improving — EPS growth bottomed 3 quarters ago at −35.4% and has held its recovery at +3.9%, ROE holding at 8.1%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: a sustained climb off the trough is the setup this page is built to catch — the question moves to what you pay for it.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +27.6% | +15.5% | — | — |
| Profit | +38.5% | +56.8% | — | — |
| EPS | +49.3% | +74.8% | — | — |
| Stock price | +1.5% | +12.6% | +12.3% | +12.3% |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
31.4/100 — rank 13 of 17 in Insurance - Specialty · 76% evidence confidence
Assured Guaranty Ltd. scores 31.4 out of 100 against the 17 companies it is compared with in Insurance - Specialty, ranking 13. Balanced evidence: keep at normal research priority and require another comparable period before raising conviction.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 11.8 + 8.8 + 5.8 + 5 = 31.4. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fees from its businesses.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported $0.3 B of income in the Mar 26 quarter, −23.5% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 6.9% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $1.0 B.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported $0.3 B of income in the Mar 26 quarter, −23.5% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at 6.9% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $1.1 B. The last four reported quarters add to $1.0 B.
FY25 revenue came in at $1.1 B (+27.6% on the year), capping 4 years at 6.9% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $0.3 B, −23.5% year on year.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +17.3% growth against the decade's 6.9% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +6.2% over the last 4 quarters against −12.0%/yr over the last 8 — accelerating; TTM profit −2.2% vs −24.0%/yr — accelerating.
→ Revenue slipped — did the net margin hold as it scaled? Next: 34.6% this quarter (−18.3 pp YoY).
Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every $100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. With big fee businesses in the mix, it is the cleanest margin we can read for this bank.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s net margin is 34.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, −18.3 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 19.4% to 55.5%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s net margin is 34.6% in the Mar 26 quarter, −18.3 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 19.4% to 55.5%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's net margin is 34.6%, −18.3 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 19.4%–55.5%.
Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.
→ The net margin slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −50.0% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −50.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.5 B. The 4-year compound rate is 6.5%. That is 34.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.2 B.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −50.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.5 B. The 4-year compound rate is 6.5%. That is 34.6% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.2 B.
Mar 26 profit was $0.1 B, −50.0% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $0.5 B (+38.5%), and the 4-year compound rate is 6.5%.
🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −23.5% and the margin −18.3 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.
Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +137.2% vs revenue +17.3%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.
→ Profit is up — how clean is the loan book behind it? Next: we hold no quarterly loan-book numbers — the section says so plainly.
Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.
Loan-book quality history is not available for Assured Guaranty Ltd., so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.
We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.
Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.
→ Behind the profits — is the book itself still growing? Next: revenue grew +27.6% in FY25.
The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book and the businesses grow, revenue grows with them. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s revenue grew +27.6% in FY25 to $1.1 B, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran −23.5% year on year. The net margin on that income is 34.6%, −18.3 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.
FY25 revenue was $1.1 B, +27.6% on the year, and the latest quarter ran −23.5% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 34.6% this quarter (−18.3 pp YoY) — growth with a narrowing margin on it.
The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — with quarterly loan-quality numbers missing here, revenue growth and margin are the two we watch.
→ Does all of this actually earn its keep on equity? Next: ROE is 8%.
Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. earns a return on equity of 9% in FY25. Its trough over the ladder below was 3% in FY22. On the asset side every $100 of the balance sheet earned about $1.50, which is the return before leverage is applied.
FY25 ROE came in at 9%, recovered from a FY22 trough of 3%. On assets, the latest reading is about 1.50% — every $100 the bank deploys earns roughly $1.50 a year. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.
Why ROE moved: profit compounded 6.5% a year over 4 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.
→ Who owns this bank, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 4.6% of the float.
Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. paid $1.40 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 11.8% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.38 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $85.5 that is a trailing yield of 1.64%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. paid $1.40 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 11.8% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.38 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $85.5 that is a trailing yield of 1.64%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. paid $1.40 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.38 for Mar 26. That is up 11.8% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $85.5 the trailing twelve months work out to 1.64% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.
→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.
Debt
For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.
A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 4.6% of the float.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
4.6% of Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s tradable float is currently sold short — some money is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 4.9 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 4.6% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 4.9 days to buy those positions back. Some money is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Assured Guaranty Ltd.: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.
| Company | P/BV | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assured Guaranty Ltd. this page | 0.7× | $4B | Improving | |||
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | 2.0× | $15B | Deteriorating | |||
| Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 8.7× | $12B | Turning around | |||
| AXIS Capital Holdings Limited | 1.5× | $9B | Consistent | |||
| First American Financial Corporation | 1.4× | $8B | Mixed | |||
| Enact Holdings, Inc. | 1.3× | $7B | Mixed | |||
| MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.3× | $6B | Deteriorating | |||
| Essent Group Ltd. | 1.1× | $6B | Mixed | |||
| Radian Group Inc. | 1.1× | $5B | Improving | |||
| NMI Holdings, Inc. | 1.3× | $3B | Consistent | |||
| Employers Holdings, Inc. | 1.1× | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| Tiptree Inc. | 1.3× | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| AMERISAFE, Inc. | 2.3× | $1B | Turning around | |||
| Investors Title Company | 2.0× | $1B | Mixed | |||
| MBIA Inc. | — | $0B | No read | |||
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc. | 0.4× | $0B | Turning around | |||
| James River Group Holdings, Inc. | 0.4× | $0B | Deteriorating |
Frequently asked questions
What is Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s stock price today?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at $85.5, +1.5% over the past year. The company is valued at $4.0 B. The stock sits at 69% of its 52-week range of $74–$91, +2.3% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is topping out, 3 weeks in. — as of 29 July 2026.
What were Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s latest quarterly results?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported total income of $0.3 B and net profit of $0.1 B for the Mar 26 quarter. Income fell 23.5% and profit fell 50.0% year on year. Earnings per share were $1.91. The net margin was 34.6%, 18.3 pp lower than a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s revenue?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported revenue of $0.3 B in the Mar 26 quarter, −23.5% year on year. For the full FY25 fiscal year, revenue was $1.1 B (+27.6%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at 6.9% a year. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s profit?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. earned $0.1 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, −50.0% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $0.5 B. The net margin ran 34.6% in the latest quarter. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s market cap?
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s market capitalisation is $4.0 B at a stock price of $85.5. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s P/BV ratio?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. trades at a P/BV of 0.7×, at the 40th percentile of its own 5-year range, against a long-run median of 0.7×. This is a comparison with the stock's own history, not a value call — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Assured Guaranty Ltd. pay a dividend?
Yes — Assured Guaranty Ltd. declared $0.38 per share for Mar 26, and $1.40 per share across the last four reported quarters. The latest quarter is up 11.8% on the same quarter a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s dividend per share?
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s most recently declared dividend is $0.38 per share for Mar 26, giving $1.40 per share over the trailing twelve months. Each figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters for the trailing total. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s dividend yield?
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s trailing dividend yield is 1.64%: $1.40 declared per share across the last four reported quarters, against a share price of $85.5. Each quarter’s figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters and divided by the latest close. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. overvalued?
On its own history, Assured Guaranty Ltd. looks mid-range against its own history: its P/BV of 0.7× sits at the 40th percentile of its 5-year range (long-run median 0.7×). That is a percentile read against the stock's own past, not a price opinion or a direction call. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. growing?
Not right now — Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s latest numbers are shrinking: latest-quarter revenue −23.5% year on year, profit −50.0%, and the the net margin −18.3 pp at 34.6%. The 4-year compound rates are 6.9% (revenue) and 6.5% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: deteriorating — as of 29 July 2026.
How is Assured Guaranty Ltd. performing?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is topping out, 3 weeks in. Its latest quarter's income fell 23.5% and profit fell 50.0% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been ahead on a trailing-13-week view for 1 week. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 29 July 2026.
What stage is Assured Guaranty Ltd. in?
Improving — EPS growth bottomed 3 quarters ago at −35.4% and has held its recovery at +3.9%, ROE holding at 8.1%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth +6.2% latest, profit growth −2.2% latest, eps growth +3.9% latest) plus the ROE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. in an uptrend?
It is stalling — the price is topping out (week 3 of stage 3), trading +2.3% versus its 200-day average and at 69% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. beating the market?
On recent form, yes — Assured Guaranty Ltd. has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 1 straight week, the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +236% against the S&P 500's +248% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 29 July 2026.
Will Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Assured Guaranty Ltd. What it measures instead: the stock price is $85.5, the price is topping out 3 weeks in. Its P/BV of 0.7× sits at the 40th percentile of its own 5-year range. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is the market betting against Assured Guaranty Ltd.?
Somewhat — short interest is 4.6% of Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s tradable float, about 4.9 days to cover at typical volumes. A moderate reading: some money is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s loan book healthy?
We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for Assured Guaranty Ltd., so this page says that plainly. The cleanest available reads are revenue growth (+27.6% in FY25) and the net margin on it (34.6%) — as of 29 July 2026.
Where is Assured Guaranty Ltd. in its business cycle?
Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s FY25 net margin was 48.6%, against a 5-year band of 19.4%–55.5%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 34.6%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 29 July 2026.
What could break the Assured Guaranty Ltd. story?
The sharpest disagreement: annual EPS moved +49.3% against a +1.5% price move — the market has not yet caught up with the delivery. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: whether the price catches up with earnings that have already moved. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 29 July 2026.