Afcons Infrastructure Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd trades at ₹300, in a downtrend and 34 weeks into that stage. That is −13.6% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 11% of a 52-week range of ₹279 to ₹463. On relative strength it is currently behind the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view (4 weeks and counting).

Today the stock is in a downtrend — week 34 of stage 4, confirmed. At ₹300 it trades −13.6% versus its 200-day average and sits at 11% of its 52-week range (₹279–₹463).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 1.7 years the stock moved −39% while the NIFTY 500 moved +6% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-06-25) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 69th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd trades at 35.0× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 31.4×, measured across 1.7 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 35.0× is mid-range by its own standards (69th percentile), against a long-run median of 31.4× measured over 1.7 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved −48.3% against a −28.1% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Deteriorating Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd reads as deteriorating on its fundamental arc. Deteriorating — revenue and profit growth are shrinking (revenue growth −18.9% latest (single-quarter readings) against +6.8% at its 12-quarter best), ROCE slipping at 11.8%. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

🚨 Why it matters: falling curves mean every cheap-looking ratio below needs a discount for direction.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

31.0/100 — rank 11 of 13 in Construction - Civil/Turnkey · 87% evidence confidence

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd scores 31.0 out of 100 against the 13 companies it is compared with in Construction - Civil/Turnkey, ranking 11. Cheap but unconfirmed: require improving earnings before treating the valuation as an opportunity.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 4.5 + 7.8 + 14.1 + 4.6 = 31. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd reported ₹2,614 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −18.9% year on year. Over 6 years it has compounded at 3.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹11,948 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹11,948 Cr.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd reported ₹2,614 Cr of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, −18.9% year on year. Over 6 years it has compounded at 3.1% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹11,948 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹11,948 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹11,948 Cr (−4.8% on the year), capping 6 years at 3.1% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹2,614 Cr, −18.9% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −4.6% growth against the decade's 3.1% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −4.8% over the last 4 quarters against −5.1%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit −48.7% vs −25.5%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue slipped — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 2.0% this quarter (−7.0 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd's operating margin is 2.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −7.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd's operating margin is 2.0% in the Mar 26 quarter, −7.0 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0% to 11.0%. The current quarter is running below every full year in that window.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 2.0%, −7.0 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 7 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged 8.0%–11.0%.

🚨 Why the margin moved: operating margin went −7.5 pp year on year while gross margin went +0.7 pp — the loss came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit −180.2% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd posted a net loss of ₹89.0 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹251 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 0.2%. That loss is 3.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹111 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd posted a net loss of ₹89.0 Cr in the Mar 26 quarter. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹251 Cr. The 6-year compound rate is 0.2%. That loss is 3.4% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹111 Cr. 1 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.

Mar 26 profit was ₹−89.0 Cr, −180.2% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹251 Cr (−48.5%), and the 6-year compound rate is 0.2%.

🚨 Why profit moved: revenue contributed −18.9% and the margin −7.0 pp — the quarter was revenue-led despite a thinner margin.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −47.1% vs revenue −4.6%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 38% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 38% of Afcons Infrastructure Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY26 that was ₹−127 Cr of operating cash against ₹251 Cr of profit. After ₹1,083 Cr of capital spending, ₹−1,210 Cr was left as free cash.

FY26: operating cash of ₹−127 Cr against reported profit of ₹251 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−1,210 Cr after ₹1,083 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 38% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 38%: the cash cycle tightened 91 days between FY21 and FY26 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a −283-day cycle and ₹2,158 Cr of building.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs −283 days in FY26, down from −192 days in FY21. Capital spending ran ₹2,158 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY26 sales of ₹11,948 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹32.7 Cr, so roughly ₹−9,264 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY26: debtors at 105 days, inventory at 130 days — roughly 4.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of −283 days, tighter than FY21's −192.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 130 days to sell; customers pay about 105 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 519 days — netting out to the −283-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY26 sales of ₹11,948 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹32.7 Cr — so the −283-day loop keeps roughly ₹−9,264 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹2,158 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹1,440 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹901 Cr (FY26) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 14% and the ROIC − WACC spread is −5.8 pp.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd earns a ROCE of 14% in FY26. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by −5.8 percentage points, so growth here is not yet paying for the capital it uses. The wiring behind it is 2.1% net margin on 0.62× asset turns.

FY26 ROCE is 14%.

🚨 Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 2.1% net margin × 0.62× asset turns × 3.51× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 4.6% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 6.2% − 12.0% = a −5.8 pp spread. The 12.0% is a standing assumption for the cost of capital in India, not a per-stock estimate — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Negative — growth at these returns destroys value until the returns recover.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.67.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd carries total debt of ₹3,627 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹5,451 Cr as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 0.67. On the annual view that ratio went from 0.70 in FY24 to 0.67 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of ₹3,627 Cr against shareholder equity of ₹5,451 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.67. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 0.70 (FY24) to 0.67 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 9.0 points over 6 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 9.0 points of Afcons Infrastructure Ltd over 6 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 20.1% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −5.8 points over the same window, to 12.2%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +9.0 points over 6 quarters to 20.1%; Foreign institutions: −5.8 points over 6 quarters to 12.2%; Promoters: +0.0 points over 6 quarters to 50.2%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −5.8 points against domestic institutions +9.0 points over 6 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd: the Z-score reads 1.86. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits in the grey band between the two. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

Why it matters: a Z-score of 1.86 sits in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 1.86.

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