AerCap Holdings N.V.

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

AerCap Holdings N.V. trades at $154, in a confirmed uptrend and 68 weeks into that stage. That is +9.7% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 100% of a 52-week range of $110 to $154. On relative strength it has been ahead of the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 2 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 68 of stage 2. At $154 it trades +9.7% versus its 200-day average and sits at 100% of its 52-week range ($110–$154).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved +347% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 2 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 47th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.

AerCap Holdings N.V. trades at 6.7× P/E, mid-range by its own standards (47th percentile). Its long-run median P/E is 6.8×, measured across 3.3 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 6.7× is mid-range by its own standards (47th percentile), against a long-run median of 6.8× measured over 3.3 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +97.4% against a +37.4% price move — earnings outran the price, pushing the multiple DOWN its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the +32.8%/yr price move, ~+43.2%/yr came from earnings growth and ~−10.4 pp from the multiple (compressing). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

AerCap Holdings N.V. reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — profit growth swung from −33.5% at the trough to +83.6%, a 4-quarter improving streak, ROE lifting at 20.5%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

59.7/100 — rank 2 of 18 in Rental & Leasing Services · 57% evidence confidence

AerCap Holdings N.V. scores 59.7 out of 100 against the 18 companies it is compared with in Rental & Leasing Services, ranking 2. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 22.2 + 12.7 + 15.5 + 9.3 = 59.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

AerCap Holdings N.V. reported $2.3 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +9.0% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 13.6% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $8.7 B. The last four reported quarters add to $8.9 B.

AerCap Holdings N.V. reported $2.3 B of revenue in the Mar 26 quarter, +9.0% year on year. That is the 3rd straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 4 years it has compounded at 13.6% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at $8.7 B. The last four reported quarters add to $8.9 B.

FY25 revenue came in at $8.7 B (+7.0% on the year), capping 4 years at 13.6% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed $2.3 B, +9.0% year on year — the 3rd consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +8.5% growth against the decade's 13.6% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +8.5% over the last 4 quarters against +6.1%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising; TTM profit +83.6% vs +8.8%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: the margin picture.

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

A clean operating margin is not in our numbers for AerCap Holdings N.V. — its accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads, which is common for lenders and holding companies. The sections above and below carry the readings this company's filings do support.

A clean operating margin is not in our numbers for AerCap Holdings N.V. — its accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads, which is common for lenders and holding companies. The sections above and below carry the readings this company's filings do support.

This company's accounts do not report the operating-profit line this section reads — common for lenders and holding companies classified outside the financial bucket. The revenue and net-profit sections are the cleaner reads for AerCap Holdings N.V..

Why: the numbers show the operating margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ Margins slipped — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +28.1% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

AerCap Holdings N.V. earned $0.8 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +28.1% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $3.8 B. The 4-year compound rate is 38.8%. That is 35.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.6 B.

AerCap Holdings N.V. earned $0.8 B of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +28.1% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was $3.8 B. The 4-year compound rate is 38.8%. That is 35.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.6 B.

Mar 26 profit was $0.8 B, +28.1% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed $3.8 B (+78.6%), and the 4-year compound rate is 38.8%.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +105.8% vs revenue +8.5%. Profit is growing faster than sales — fixed costs are being spread over a bigger base, and each extra dollar of revenue drops more to the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 179% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 179% of AerCap Holdings N.V.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY25 that was $5.4 B of operating cash against $3.8 B of profit. After $6.1 B of capital spending, $−0.7 B was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of $5.4 B against reported profit of $3.8 B, leaving free cash of $−0.7 B after $6.1 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 179% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.

Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $19.0 B of building over 3 years.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

AerCap Holdings N.V. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $19.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 72.5% of FY25 revenue a year.

Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.

On the investment side: capital spending of $19.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.

The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 22% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +1.1 pp.

Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.

AerCap Holdings N.V. earns a ROE of 21% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −4% in FY22. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +1.1 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 43.0% net margin on 0.12× asset turns.

FY25 ROE is 21%, recovered from a FY22 trough of −4% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 43.0% net margin × 0.12× asset turns × 3.91× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 20.2% on equity. Margin is doing the heavy lifting; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 7.0% − 5.9% = a +1.1 pp spread. The 5.9% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 2.34.

Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.

AerCap Holdings N.V. paid $1.34 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 48.1% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.40 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $154 that is a trailing yield of 0.87%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

AerCap Holdings N.V. paid $1.34 per share over the last four reported quarters, up 48.1% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.40 for Mar 26. Against the current price of $154 that is a trailing yield of 0.87%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.

AerCap Holdings N.V. paid $1.34 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.40 for Mar 26. That is up 48.1% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $154 the trailing twelve months work out to 0.87% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.

→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.

AerCap Holdings N.V. carries total debt of $43.0 B against shareholder equity of $18.4 B as of Mar 26, a debt-to-equity of 2.34. On the annual view that ratio went from 3.02 in FY21 to 2.38 in FY25. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.

Mar 26: total debt of $43.0 B against shareholder equity of $18.4 B — a debt-to-equity of 2.34. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 3.02 (FY21) to 2.38 (FY25). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: the register.

Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.

No ownership or positioning reading is held for AerCap Holdings N.V., so this section names the gap rather than filling it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 1.1 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.

We hold no ownership or positioning reading for this stock, so this section says that plainly.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

AerCap Holdings N.V.: the Z-score reads 0.95. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits inside the distress zone. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.

🚨 Why it matters: a Z-score of 0.95 is inside the distress zone — the balance sheet is a real risk, not a detail.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 0.95.

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