Aditya Birla Capital Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd trades at ₹402, in a confirmed uptrend and 61 weeks into that stage. That is +18.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 95% of a 52-week range of ₹279 to ₹408. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 18 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 61 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹402 it trades +18.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 95% of its 52-week range (₹279–₹408).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 8.9 years the stock moved +69% while the NIFTY 500 moved +167% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 18 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/BV sits at the 91st percentile of its own range.

Valuation For a bank we price the book, not the earnings: P/BV is what the market pays for each ₹1 of the bank's net worth. A bank below 1× book is priced below the value of what it owns, net of what it owes.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd trades at 3.0× P/BV, at the pricey end of its own range (91st percentile). Its long-run median P/BV is 2.2×, measured across 8.7 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/BV of 3.0× is at the pricey end of its own range (91st percentile), against a long-run median of 2.2× measured over 8.7 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

The honest context for that discount: a bank earning about 12% on its equity is worth less per rupee of book, and the market has priced that in rather than overlooked it. The discount closes only if the returns themselves improve.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year book value grew while the price moved +51.9% — the price ran ahead of the book, pushing the multiple up its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 5y, of the +26.4%/yr price move, ~+20.5%/yr came from book-value growth and ~+5.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus book-value growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the book-value line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — the growth curves are steadily positive, but ROE at 10.5% is below the 12% bar this page requires to call it Consistent. The read is built from 11 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

47.7/100 — rank 6 of 8 in Conglomerate Backed NBFC · 84% evidence confidence

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd scores 47.7 out of 100 against the 8 companies it is compared with in Conglomerate Backed NBFC, ranking 6. Price leads the evidence: RS versus the benchmark is 19.8%, but earnings trajectory is weak. Wait for revenue and profit confirmation.

The four contributions add to the total exactly: 14.9 + 11.7 + 5.3 + 15.8 = 47.7. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.

What would change it: The read weakens if ROA rolls over or gross NPA rises while sector-relative strength deteriorates.

Revenue For a bank, revenue is everything the franchise earns — interest on the loan book plus fee and other income.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd reported ₹13,459 Cr of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +10.2% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 28.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹45,513 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹45,509 Cr.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd reported ₹13,459 Cr of income in the Mar 26 quarter, +10.2% year on year. That is the 10th straight quarter of year-on-year growth. Over 10 years it has compounded at 28.7% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at ₹45,513 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹45,509 Cr.

FY26 revenue came in at ₹45,513 Cr (+12.0% on the year), capping 10 years at 28.7% compound. The latest quarter (Mar 26) printed ₹13,459 Cr, +10.2% year on year — the 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged +12.4% growth against the decade's 28.7% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew +12.1% over the last 4 quarters against +15.3%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit +13.3% vs +6.0%/yr — accelerating.

→ Revenue grew — did the net margin hold as it scaled? Next: 8.7% this quarter (+1.4 pp YoY).

Net margin Net margin — what the bank keeps of every ₹100 of revenue after every cost, provision and tax. It is the cleanest single margin we can read for a lender.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd's net margin is 8.7% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.4 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 5.2% to 16.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd's net margin is 8.7% in the Mar 26 quarter, +1.4 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 5.2% to 16.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's net margin is 8.7%, +1.4 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the net margin has ranged 5.2%–16.0%.

Why: the numbers show the net margin move clearly, but the cost lines behind it sit below what we hold — so we state the move without inventing its driver.

→ The net margin held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +31.5% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd earned ₹1,165 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +31.5% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,864 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 22.1%. That is 8.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹886 Cr.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd earned ₹1,165 Cr of net profit in the Mar 26 quarter, +31.5% year on year. It is the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. Full-year FY26 profit was ₹3,864 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 22.1%. That is 8.7% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹886 Cr.

Mar 26 profit was ₹1,165 Cr, +31.5% year on year — the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth. On the full year, FY26 printed ₹3,864 Cr (+14.3%), and the 10-year compound rate is 22.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +10.2% and the margin +1.4 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit +15.1% vs revenue +12.4%. Profit and revenue are moving roughly in step.

→ Profit is up — how clean is the loan book behind it? Next: we hold no quarterly loan-book numbers — the section says so plainly.

Asset quality — the ladder Gross NPA is the slice of the loan book where repayments have stopped. Net NPA is what remains after the money already set aside against those loans. Falling is healing; rising is damage arriving.

Loan-book quality history is not available for Aditya Birla Capital Ltd, so this section names the gap rather than estimating a ratio. No gross or net non-performing-asset series is filed in a form this page can read, and none is inferred from the profit line. The income, margin and return sections above carry the evidence this business does report.

We do not hold quarterly loan-book quality numbers for this bank, so this section states that plainly rather than working around it.

Why: loan-book quality is the engine room of a bank, and its drivers — slippages, recoveries, provisioning — sit below what we hold for this name; the sections around it carry the reads we can stand behind.

→ Behind the profits — is the book itself still growing? Next: revenue grew +12.0% in FY26.

The loan book We read the loan book through revenue — when the book grows, revenue grows with it. It is a rough proxy, and we say so: rate moves and fee swings can shift it a few points in any one year.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd's revenue grew +12.0% in FY26 to ₹45,513 Cr, so the book is growing. The latest quarter ran +10.2% year on year. The net margin on that income is 8.7%, +1.4 percentage points against a year ago. Interest income is a proxy for the book; rate moves can shift it a few points in any one year.

FY26 revenue was ₹45,513 Cr, +12.0% on the year, and the latest quarter ran +10.2% year on year. The net margin on that revenue is 8.7% this quarter (+1.4 pp YoY) — growth with a widening margin on it.

The synthesis: a lender compounds when the book grows while the margin holds and the loan book stays clean — gross NPA is the loan-quality read we carry here.

→ Does all of this actually earn its keep on equity? Next: ROE is 12%.

Returns on equity and assets Two numbers rate a bank: ROE — what it earns on shareholder money — and ROA — what it earns on everything it deploys. ROE above ~13–15% earns its keep; below that, growth builds book slowly.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd earns a return on equity of 12% in FY26. Its trough over the ladder below was 8% in FY20. On the asset side every ₹100 of the balance sheet earned about ₹1.26, which is the return before leverage is applied.

FY26 ROE came in at 12%, recovered from a FY20 trough of 8%. On assets, the latest reading is about 1.26% — every ₹100 the bank deploys earns roughly ₹1.26 a year. That return is below the bar a bank must clear to compound book value quickly — which is also the honest reason the stock trades where it does.

Why ROE moved: profit compounded 22.1% a year over 10 years while the equity base grew more slowly — earnings recovering faster than book value builds is what lifts ROE off a trough.

→ Who owns this bank, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 5.2 points over 8 quarters.

Debt

For a bank, borrowings are raw material, not a warning sign — solvency is read through the returns and the loan book. A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits, so the debt-to-equity lens that works everywhere else misleads on a lender and is not applied here.

A manufacturer’s debt is a claim against its profits; a bank’s borrowings are its inventory — money taken in to be lent out. The debt lens that works everywhere else misleads here, so this page does not apply it. The solvency questions for a bank — is the loan book sound, is the equity earning — are read through the loan-book and returns sections above.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Domestic institutions added 5.2 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Domestic institutions added 5.2 points of Aditya Birla Capital Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes domestic institutions to 13.4% of the company. Foreign institutions moved −2.2 points over the same window, to 7.9%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Domestic institutions: +5.2 points over 8 quarters to 13.4%; Foreign institutions: −2.2 points over 8 quarters to 7.9%; Promoters: −0.2 points over 8 quarters to 68.8%.

Why the register moved: rotation — foreign institutions −2.2 points against domestic institutions +5.2 points over 8 quarters, with promoters holding steady — one class of institutions handing the register to the other, not a verdict change by the people closest to the numbers.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre. The Z-score was built for manufacturers and is not applied to banks and lenders, so solvency here is read from the capital and asset-quality lines instead.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is omitted — it was built for manufacturers, not banks, and applying it here would be theatre.

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