Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it.
Biggest watch item: the price is already 11 weeks into its uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk.
The price is in a confirmed uptrend (11 weeks in). Underneath, the last four quarters read improving — profit +0.0% year on year, and 175% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash. What settles it: the next one or two quarters of delivery.
Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. trades at $58.7, in a confirmed uptrend and 11 weeks into that stage. That is +11.9% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 85% of a 52-week range of $39 to $62. On relative strength it is currently behind the S&P 500 on a trailing-13-week view (4 weeks and counting).
Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 11 of stage 2. At $58.7 it trades +11.9% versus its 200-day average and sits at 85% of its 52-week range ($39–$62).
Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved −64% while the S&P 500 moved +248% — behind the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock is currently behind (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-02) — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.
What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.
→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: how the P/E reads against its own history.
Valuation P/E is the price of $1 of annual profit: how many dollars the market pays for each dollar the company earns in a year.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. trades at 52.4× P/E, against too little history to rank. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.
Today's P/E of 52.4× is against too little history to rank. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.
The price move, decomposed: over 3y, of the −7.1%/yr price move, ~−49.0%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+41.9 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.
Put together: the multiple is unremarkable against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.
→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.
Stage: Turning around Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. reads as turning around on its fundamental arc. Turning around — EPS growth swung from −3021.0% at the trough to −1634.1% off a 2-quarter-old trough, ROCE holding at 2.2%. The read is built from 12 quarters across 4 curves, on full evidence.
Why it matters: growth inflections are where re-ratings start — the curves say a turn is forming, so the question becomes whether the next quarters confirm it.
One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.
| 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | −2.3% | — | — |
| EPS | — | +13.4% | — | — |
| Stock price | +0.0% | −7.1% | −22.7% | −10.1% |
→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.
4-Factor Sector Score
49.9/100 — rank 10 of 29 in Auto Parts · 59% evidence confidence
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. scores 49.9 out of 100 against the 29 companies it is compared with in Auto Parts, ranking 10. Fill the missing evidence before acting; the ranking is deliberately pulled toward neutral.
The four contributions add to the total exactly: 23.1 + 5.8 + 8.7 + 12.3 = 49.9. This is the SAME number shown on the sector comparison — it is computed once, for the whole peer set, and read here.
What would change it: The read weakens if profit growth turns negative or margin improvement reverses while sector-relative strength deteriorates.
Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. reported $2.6 B of revenue in the Apr 26 quarter, +1.2% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −6.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at $8.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $8.6 B.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. reported $2.6 B of revenue in the Apr 26 quarter, +1.2% year on year. Over 4 years it has compounded at −6.0% a year. The last full year, FY26, came in at $8.6 B. The last four reported quarters add to $8.6 B.
FY26 revenue came in at $8.6 B (−5.4% on the year), capping 4 years at −6.0% compound. The latest quarter (Apr 26) printed $2.6 B, +1.2% year on year.
Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −3.9% growth against the decade's −6.0% — the current year is running faster than its own long-run rate.
Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −3.1% over the last 4 quarters against −5.6%/yr over the last 8 — stabilising.
→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 2.7% this quarter (+7.7 pp YoY).
Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every $100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s operating margin is 2.7% in the Apr 26 quarter, +7.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −7.8% to 7.5%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s operating margin is 2.7% in the Apr 26 quarter, +7.7 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −7.8% to 7.5%. The current quarter sits inside that band.
The latest quarter's operating margin is 2.7%, +7.7 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 5 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −7.8%–7.5%.
Why the margin moved: operating margin went +7.7 pp year on year while gross margin went +2.2 pp — the gain came mostly below the gross line: operating leverage, with costs spread over a bigger revenue base.
→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +0.0% in the latest quarter.
Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Apr 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was $0.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is −41.6%. That is 0.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B. 4 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Apr 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was $0.1 B. The 4-year compound rate is −41.6%. That is 0.8% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned $0.0 B. 4 of the last 12 reported quarters were loss-making.
Apr 26 profit was $0.0 B, +0.0% year on year. On the full year, FY26 printed $0.1 B (null), and the 4-year compound rate is −41.6%.
→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 175% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.
Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.
Over the last 3 fiscal years 175% of Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash — the cash follows the profit. In FY26 that was $−0.1 B of operating cash against $0.1 B of profit. After $0.3 B of capital spending, $−0.3 B was left as free cash.
FY26: operating cash of $−0.1 B against reported profit of $0.1 B, leaving free cash of $−0.3 B after $0.3 B of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 175% of profit.
Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.
Why: conversion is measured cleanly, but the working-capital day-counts behind it sit below what we hold — the move is shown without inventing its driver.
Router verdict: the visible cash user is investment — the next section checks what the spending is buying.
→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: $1.0 B of building over 3 years.
Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. does not report the debtor, inventory and payable day-counts a cash cycle is built from, so this section reads the investment side instead. Capital spending ran $1.0 B over the last 3 years. Averaged over those years that is 3.9% of FY26 revenue a year.
Working-capital day-counts are not in our numbers for this stock, so this section reads the investment side — where the cash is being put to work.
On the investment side: capital spending of $1.0 B over the last 3 fiscal years.
The synthesis: the cash is going into capacity, not disappearing into the cycle — the question becomes whether the new capacity earns.
→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROE is 3% and the ROIC − WACC spread is +0.3 pp.
Return on equity Return on equity (ROE) is the profit the business earns on its shareholders’ money. With the full capital-employed split not in our numbers, ROE is the cleanest long ladder we can draw here.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. earns a ROE of 3% in FY26. That is up from a trough of −27% in FY24. Return on invested capital clears the cost of that capital by +0.3 percentage points, so growth here adds value rather than only size. The wiring behind it is 0.8% net margin on 0.73× asset turns.
FY26 ROE is 3%, recovered from a FY24 trough of −27% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.
Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY26): 0.8% net margin × 0.73× asset turns × 5.38× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 3.1% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.
The capstone test — ROIC − WACC: 5.9% − 5.6% = a +0.3 pp spread. The 5.6% is an estimate of this company's own cost of capital — read the sign and the size of the spread, not the decimals. Positive but thin — value creation with little room for error.
→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 2.55.
Dividend A dividend is cash paid out per share. Dividend per share is the declared amount for the period; the trailing twelve-month total is the four most recent quarters added together.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. paid $1.00 per share over the last four reported quarters, down 83.3% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.25 for Apr 26. Against the current price of $58.7 that is a trailing yield of 1.70%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. paid $1.00 per share over the last four reported quarters, down 83.3% on a year ago. The most recent declaration was $0.25 for Apr 26. Against the current price of $58.7 that is a trailing yield of 1.70%, measured on dividends already paid rather than on a forecast.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. paid $1.00 per share across the last four reported quarters, most recently $0.25 for Apr 26. That is down 83.3% against the same quarter a year earlier. Against the current price of $58.7 the trailing twelve months work out to 1.70% — trailing dividends measured against today's price, not a forward estimate.
→ A payout is cash leaving the business. Next: what the balance sheet looks like behind it.
Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings. Low is the safe corner; the trend matters as much as the level.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. carries total debt of $5.2 B against shareholder equity of $2.2 B as of Apr 26, a debt-to-equity of 2.37. On the annual view that ratio went from 1.08 in FY22 to 2.37 in FY26. Read the returns elsewhere on this page with that leverage in mind.
Apr 26: total debt of $5.2 B against shareholder equity of $2.2 B — a debt-to-equity of 2.37. On the annual view, debt-to-equity went from 1.08 (FY22) to 2.37 (FY26). Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind.
→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: short interest is 17.9% of the float.
Ownership There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read here, so we read the crowd through short interest — the slice of tradable shares currently sold short, positioned for a fall.
17.9% of Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s tradable float is currently sold short — a large bloc is positioned against it. At typical trading volumes those positions would take about 6.0 days to buy back. There is no quarter-by-quarter holder register to read for this filer, so the crowd is read through short interest instead.
The latest reading: 17.9% of the float is sold short, and at typical trading volumes it would take about 6.0 days to buy those positions back. A large bloc is positioned against it. This is a single point-in-time reading — we do not yet hold its history, so we show no trend chart.
Why it sits there: who is doing the shorting, and why, does not travel with the number — the level is shown without inventing its story.
→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.
Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.: the Z-score reads 1.83. A Z-score above roughly 3 reads as safe and below roughly 1.8 as the distress zone, so this sits in the grey band between the two. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure.
Why it matters: a Z-score of 1.83 sits in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed.
The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score reads 1.83.
| Company | P/E | Mkt cap | Revenue | EPS | ROCE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance Auto Parts, Inc. this page | 52.4× | $4B | Turning around | |||
| O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | 29.7× | $76B | Mixed | |||
| AutoZone, Inc. | 21.4× | $51B | Deteriorating | |||
| Magna International Inc. | 28.0× | $19B | Deteriorating | |||
| Genuine Parts Company | 545.2× | $18B | Deteriorating | |||
| BorgWarner Inc. | 37.4× | $13B | Turning around | |||
| Aptiv PLC | 35.2× | $13B | Deteriorating | |||
| Aurora Innovation, Inc. | — | $12B | No read | |||
| Modine Manufacturing Company | 92.1× | $11B | Topping out | |||
| Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 18.8× | $10B | Deteriorating | |||
| Autoliv, Inc. | 14.6× | $9B | Mixed | |||
| Lear Corporation | 14.9× | $7B | Turning around | |||
| Mobileye Global Inc. | — | $7B | No read | |||
| LKQ Corporation | 13.2× | $7B | Deteriorating | |||
| Garrett Motion Inc. | 17.5× | $6B | Improving | |||
| Gentex Corporation | 12.8× | $5B | Improving | |||
| Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 21.4× | $4B | Consistent | |||
| Dorman Products, Inc. | 23.1× | $4B | Mixed | |||
| QuantumScape Corporation | — | $3B | — | — | — | — |
| Versigent PLC | 6.1× | $3B | — | — | — | — |
| PHINIA Inc. | 22.5× | $3B | Improving | |||
| Dana Incorporated | 3.0× | $3B | No read | |||
| Visteon Corporation | 20.6× | $3B | Deteriorating | |||
| Hesai Group | 35.9× | $2B | No read | |||
| The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | — | $2B | No read | |||
| Adient plc | 29.8× | $2B | Deteriorating | |||
| Dauch Corporation | — | $1B | Mixed | |||
| Gentherm Incorporated | 49.1× | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| XPEL, Inc. | 23.0× | $1B | Mixed | |||
| Douglas Dynamics, Inc. | 20.4× | $1B | Topping out | |||
| Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 10.8× | $1B | Mixed | |||
| Fox Factory Holding Corp. | — | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| Hyliion Holdings Corp. | — | $1B | No read | |||
| Miller Industries, Inc. | 38.2× | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| Monro, Inc. | 652.2× | $1B | Deteriorating | |||
| Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | — | $1B | No read | |||
| Solid Power, Inc. | — | $0B | No read | |||
| ECARX Holdings Inc. | — | $0B | No read | |||
| Strattec Security Corporation | 14.6× | $0B | Mixed | |||
| Holley Inc. | 14.1× | $0B | Deteriorating |
Frequently asked questions
What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s stock price today?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. trades at $58.7, +0.0% over the past year. The company is valued at $4.0 B. The stock sits at 85% of its 52-week range of $39–$62, +11.9% versus its 200-day average. On the tape, the price is in a confirmed uptrend, 11 weeks in. — as of 29 July 2026.
What were Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s latest quarterly results?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. reported revenue of $2.6 B and net profit of $0.0 B for the Apr 26 quarter. Revenue rose 1.2% and profit rose 0.0% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.39. The operating margin was 2.7%, 7.7 pp higher than a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s revenue?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. reported revenue of $2.6 B in the Apr 26 quarter, +1.2% year on year. For the full FY26 fiscal year, revenue was $8.6 B (−5.4%). Over the last 4 years revenue compounded at −6.0% a year. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s profit?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. earned $0.0 B of net profit in the Apr 26 quarter, +0.0% year on year. Full-year FY26 profit was $0.1 B. The operating margin ran 2.7% in the latest quarter. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s market cap?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s market capitalisation is $4.0 B at a stock price of $58.7. Market cap is the share price multiplied by shares outstanding, so it is restated whenever the price moves. — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Advance Auto Parts, Inc. pay a dividend?
Yes — Advance Auto Parts, Inc. declared $0.25 per share for Apr 26, and $1.00 per share across the last four reported quarters. The latest quarter is down 83.3% on the same quarter a year earlier. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s dividend per share?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s most recently declared dividend is $0.25 per share for Apr 26, giving $1.00 per share over the trailing twelve months. Each figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters for the trailing total. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s dividend yield?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s trailing dividend yield is 1.70%: $1.00 declared per share across the last four reported quarters, against a share price of $58.7. Each quarter’s figure is the amount declared for that quarter as reported, added across four quarters and divided by the latest close. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. growing?
Yes — Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is growing: latest-quarter revenue +1.2% year on year, profit +0.0%, and the margin +7.7 pp at 2.7%. The 4-year compound rates are −6.0% (revenue) and −41.6% (profit). The earnings engine currently reads: improving — as of 29 July 2026.
How is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. performing?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is in a confirmed uptrend, 11 weeks in. Its latest quarter's revenue rose 1.2% and profit rose 0.0% year on year. Against the S&P 500 it has been behind on a trailing-13-week view for 4 weeks. This describes what the data did, not a rating. — as of 29 July 2026.
What stage is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. in?
Turning around — EPS growth swung from −3021.0% at the trough to −1634.1% off a 2-quarter-old trough, ROCE holding at 2.2%. The read comes from the last 12 quarters of growth (revenue growth −3.1% latest, profit growth +0.0% latest, eps growth −1,634.1% latest) plus the ROCE curve, classified by deterministic rules — a trajectory read, not a buy or sell call — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. in an uptrend?
Yes — the price is in a confirmed uptrend (week 11 of stage 2), trading +11.9% versus its 200-day average and at 85% of its 52-week range. Price stages cycle base → advance → top → decline, and the stage names where this stock sits in that cycle — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. beating the market?
Not lately — on a trailing-13-week view Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is currently behind the S&P 500 (4 weeks and counting; last ahead the week of 2026-07-02), the same metric the week-by-week ribbon on this page draws. Separately, on the cumulative view: over the last 10.1 years the stock moved −64% against the S&P 500's +248% — behind the index over the full window. — as of 29 July 2026.
Will Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s stock price go up?
This page publishes no price forecast for Advance Auto Parts, Inc. What it measures instead: the stock price is $58.7, the price is in a confirmed uptrend 11 weeks in. Direction is not something this site claims to know. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is the market betting against Advance Auto Parts, Inc.?
Yes — short interest is 17.9% of Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s tradable float, about 6.0 days to cover at typical volumes. A crowded short: a large bloc is positioned against it. With no quarter-by-quarter holder register here, short interest is the cleanest crowd read we hold — as of 29 July 2026.
Does Advance Auto Parts, Inc. have too much debt?
It carries real leverage — Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s debt-to-equity is 2.55. A year-by-year borrowings ladder is not in our numbers for this stock, so the latest reading is the cleanest hold. Read the returns on this page with that leverage in mind — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s capex?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. spent $1.0 B on capital expenditure over the last 3 fiscal years, a figure derived from the change in fixed assets plus depreciation. In FY26 alone that was $0.3 B. — as of 29 July 2026.
What is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s cash flow?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. generated $−0.1 B of operating cash flow in FY26 and $−0.3 B of free cash flow after $0.3 B of capital spending. Reported profit that year was $0.1 B, so operating cash ran behind profit. — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s profit real cash?
Yes — over the last 3 fiscal years, 175% of Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s reported profit arrived as operating cash. In FY26, operating cash was $−0.1 B against reported profit of $0.1 B. The cash then goes mostly into building capacity. Cash-flow resolution is annual — as of 29 July 2026.
How financially safe is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.?
On the balance sheet, the Z-score reads 1.83 — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the distress zone. That is in the grey band — neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed. — as of 29 July 2026.
Where is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. in its business cycle?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s FY26 operating margin was −0.5%, against a 5-year band of −7.8%–7.5%: mid-band by its own history — neither the peak that precedes mean-reversion nor the trough that precedes recovery. The latest quarter ran 2.7%. Profitability versus a company's own long band is the cleanest cycle clock this page holds — as of 29 July 2026.
What could break the Advance Auto Parts, Inc. story?
Biggest watch item: the price is already 11 weeks into its uptrend — timing risk, not thesis risk. Mechanically, two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day average would end the price trend — that is the exit rule this page tracks — as of 29 July 2026.
Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. a stock worth studying right now?
This is not investment advice. The machine read: Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s three tracks disagree. Price, valuation and the earnings engine each tell a different story — the next quarter or two settles it. The sharpest open question: the next one or two quarters of delivery. Every number on this page is drawn deterministically from the raw series, with no forecasts and no price opinions — as of 29 July 2026.