Arfin India Ltd

Price story Before the numbers, the tape. A stock price moves through four repeating seasons: a flat base (stage 1), an advance (2), a top (3), a decline (4). Where the price sits in that cycle frames everything below.

Arfin India Ltd trades at ₹77.4, in a confirmed uptrend and 27 weeks into that stage. That is +37.5% against its own 200-day average. It sits at 95% of a 52-week range of ₹24 to ₹80. On relative strength it has been ahead of the NIFTY 500 on a trailing-13-week view for 33 straight weeks.

Today the stock is in a confirmed uptrend — week 27 of stage 2, confirmed. At ₹77.4 it trades +37.5% versus its 200-day average and sits at 95% of its 52-week range (₹24–₹80).

Against the market, two honest reads. Cumulative: over the last 10.0 years the stock moved +2,373% while the NIFTY 500 moved +260% — ahead of the index over the full window. Recent form: on a trailing-13-week view the stock has been ahead for 33 straight weeks — the ribbon below is that same metric, week by week.

What would end the trend, mechanically: two Friday closes in a row below the 200-day line. That is the exit rule — no debates.

→ The trend is one thing; the bill is another. Are you paying up for it? Next: the P/E sits at the 98th percentile of its own range.

Valuation P/E is the price of ₹1 of annual profit: how many rupees the market pays for each rupee the company earns in a year.

Arfin India Ltd trades at 153.0× P/E, about the priciest it has ever traded. Its long-run median P/E is 28.1×, measured across 10.0 years of weekly readings. This places the multiple against the stock’s own record, and says nothing about what the business is worth.

Today's P/E of 153.0× is about the priciest it has ever traded, against a long-run median of 28.1× measured over 10.0 years of weekly readings. This is a comparison against the stock's own history — not a claim about what it is worth.

🚨 Why the multiple sits where it does: over the past year annual EPS moved +3.8% against a +145.8% price move — the price outran earnings, pushing the multiple UP its own range.

The price move, decomposed: over 10y, of the +37.8%/yr price move, ~−1.6%/yr came from earnings growth and ~+39.4 pp from the multiple (expanding). The split is the honest approximate (price return minus earnings growth); it makes the rally itself visible instead of hiding it behind the percentile.

Put together: the multiple is full against its own past, so the story rests on the earnings line underneath it, not the multiple.

→ Cheap or dear rides on the earnings. Are they actually growing? Next: the fundamental stage — where the business sits in its arc, and how growth has compounded.

Stage: Mixed Every business sits somewhere on a fundamental arc, and this page names the spot before anything else. The last twelve quarters of revenue, profit and EPS growth — plus the return the business earns on its capital — are read as curves: Deteriorating (the curves are falling), Turning around (a trough has just formed and the last few quarters lift off it), Improving (the climb off the trough is sustained), Consistent (steadily positive with healthy returns), Topping out (still high but decelerating from the peak). When the curves genuinely disagree the read is Mixed; too little history is No read. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the smooth yearly pace that turns the starting value into the latest one — the fairest way to compare growth across different time spans. Read the columns together: if the 1-year number towers over the 10-year, recent growth is running hotter than the long-run trend. A dash means that window is not held, or the base year was a loss (where a growth rate is not meaningful).

Arfin India Ltd reads as mixed on its fundamental arc. Mixed — no clean majority across the growth curves, ROCE holding at 14.0% — the per-curve reads carry the story. The read is built from 9 quarters across 3 curves, on partial evidence.

Why it matters: when the curves disagree, the per-curve reads above matter more than any single verdict.

One or more growth curves carry a base-effect spike — a large year-on-year move off a near-zero or loss-making comparable quarter. Those spikes are capped before the classifier reads the trajectory, and shown pinned on the chart, so a single distorted quarter does not drive the stage call.

Return readings here are annual, not quarterly — read as level and direction only; they can confirm the growth curves but never drive the stage on their own.

A partial read: at least one curve is short, or the returns curve is not the computed quarterly series — hold the stage word a little more loosely.

→ The stage names the trajectory. Next: the revenue line that produces it, quarter by quarter.

4-Factor Sector Score

No sector-relative score — Arfin India Ltd is not present in the sector comparison for Aluminium Products.

The score is a rank WITHIN a peer set: every metric is scored by percentile against the other members. Without the peer set there is no score to state, so none is invented here.

Revenue Revenue is the top line: everything the company billed its customers in the period.

Arfin India Ltd reported ₹196 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +8.9% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹616 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹587 Cr.

Arfin India Ltd reported ₹196 Cr of revenue in the Dec 25 quarter, +8.9% year on year. Over 10 years it has compounded at 9.4% a year. The last full year, FY25, came in at ₹616 Cr. The last four reported quarters add to ₹587 Cr.

FY25 revenue came in at ₹616 Cr (+15.1% on the year), capping 10 years at 9.4% compound. The latest quarter (Dec 25) printed ₹196 Cr, +8.9% year on year.

Pace check: the last four quarters averaged −2.8% growth against the decade's 9.4% — the current year is running slower than its own long-run rate.

Acceleration check: trailing-twelve-month revenue grew −2.1% over the last 4 quarters against +3.3%/yr over the last 8 — rolling over; TTM profit −21.4% vs −0.9%/yr — rolling over.

→ Revenue grew — did margins hold as it scaled? Next: 6.9% this quarter (+0.8 pp YoY).

Operating margin Operating margin is what is left of every ₹100 of sales after running the business, before interest and tax. It is the cleanest read on pricing power and cost control.

Arfin India Ltd's operating margin is 6.9% in the Dec 25 quarter, +0.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −2.0% to 10.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

Arfin India Ltd's operating margin is 6.9% in the Dec 25 quarter, +0.8 percentage points against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −2.0% to 10.0%. The current quarter sits inside that band.

The latest quarter's operating margin is 6.9%, +0.8 pp against the same quarter a year ago. Across 12 fiscal years the operating margin has ranged −2.0%–10.0%.

Why the margin moved: operating margin went +0.8 pp year on year while gross margin went +1.1 pp — the gain came mostly from the gross line: input costs and pricing.

→ Margins held — did that reach the bottom line? Next: profit +59.1% in the latest quarter.

Net profit Net profit is what survives every cost, interest and tax — the number EPS, dividends and book value all grow from.

Arfin India Ltd earned ₹4.8 Cr of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +59.1% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹9.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.1%. That is 2.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹3.0 Cr.

Arfin India Ltd earned ₹4.8 Cr of net profit in the Dec 25 quarter, +59.1% year on year. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹9.0 Cr. The 10-year compound rate is 6.1%. That is 2.5% of the quarter's revenue. The same quarter a year earlier earned ₹3.0 Cr.

Dec 25 profit was ₹4.8 Cr, +59.1% year on year. On the full year, FY25 printed ₹9.0 Cr (+12.5%), and the 10-year compound rate is 6.1%.

Why profit moved: revenue contributed +8.9% and the margin +0.8 pp — the quarter was revenue-led, with the margin roughly flat.

Pace comparison, last four quarters: profit −25.2% vs revenue −2.8%. Profit is growing slower than sales — costs are eating the growth before it reaches the bottom line.

→ Profit rose — but did the cash follow? Next: 48% of the last 3 years' profit arrived as cash.

Cash flow — the router The P&L says what was earned; the cash-flow statement says what actually arrived. Operating cash flow (CFO) against profit is the cleanest lie detector in the accounts.

Over the last 3 fiscal years 48% of Arfin India Ltd's reported profit arrived as operating cash — a gap worth watching. In FY25 that was ₹−21.0 Cr of operating cash against ₹9.0 Cr of profit. After ₹6.0 Cr of capital spending, ₹−27.0 Cr was left as free cash.

FY25: operating cash of ₹−21.0 Cr against reported profit of ₹9.0 Cr, leaving free cash of ₹−27.0 Cr after ₹6.0 Cr of capital spending. Across the last 3 fiscal years the conversion rate is 48% of profit.

Cash-flow readings here are annual — that is the resolution our series carries, so this section moves once a year.

🚨 Why conversion sits at 48%: the cash cycle tightened 13 days between FY20 and FY25 — cash that used to wait in the cycle now reaches the bank sooner. Less than 70% of profit arriving as cash is the thing to watch on this page.

Router verdict: no single sink dominates — the next section checks both the working-capital cycle and the capital spending.

→ So follow the cash to where it goes. Next: a 116-day cycle and ₹18.0 Cr of building.

Where the cash goes Working capital is the cash tied up between paying suppliers and getting paid: debtor days (customers owe), inventory days (stock waits), and the cash conversion cycle (the whole loop, in days of sales).

Arfin India Ltd's cash conversion cycle runs 116 days in FY25, down from 129 days in FY20. Capital spending ran ₹18.0 Cr over the last 3 years. At FY25 sales of ₹616 Cr each day of that cycle holds about ₹1.7 Cr, so roughly ₹196 Cr sits inside the business at any moment.

FY25: debtors at 31 days, inventory at 130 days — roughly 4.3 months of stock waiting to sell; that is where the cash sits while it waits — for a full cycle of 116 days, tighter than FY20's 129.

The full loop: cash goes out to suppliers and production on day 0; stock waits 130 days to sell; customers pay about 31 days after that; and suppliers themselves are paid at 45 days — netting out to the 116-day cycle.

In money terms: at FY25 sales of ₹616 Cr, each day of the cycle holds about ₹1.7 Cr — so the 116-day loop keeps roughly ₹196 Cr sitting inside the business at any moment.

On the investment side: capital spending of ₹18.0 Cr over the last 3 fiscal years against ₹12.0 Cr of depreciation — building somewhat ahead of wear-and-tear. Capital work-in-progress stands at ₹4.0 Cr (FY25) — capacity paid for but not yet earning.

The synthesis: neither the cycle nor the build-out is hoarding the cash — the machine is reasonably clean.

→ Does all this activity actually earn its cost of capital? Next: ROCE is 14%.

Return on capital Return on capital employed (ROCE) is the profit the whole business earns on all the money in it — equity and debt together. It is the single best test of whether growth creates value or just size.

Arfin India Ltd earns a ROCE of 14% in FY25. That is up from a trough of −4% in FY20. A return-on-invested-capital spread against the cost of capital is not computable from what is held here. The wiring behind it is 1.5% net margin on 1.79× asset turns.

FY25 ROCE is 14%, recovered from a FY20 trough of −4% — the full ladder below shows the fall and the climb, undoctored.

Why the return is what it is — the wiring (FY25): 1.5% net margin × 1.79× asset turns × 2.19× balance-sheet leverage ≈ 5.9% on equity. Margin does its share; leverage is a meaningful part of the equation.

→ Returns like these — is the balance sheet borrowing to make them? Next: debt-to-equity is 0.75.

Debt Debt-to-equity says how much of the business is funded by borrowings; interest cover says how many times operating profit pays the interest bill. Low and high, respectively, is the safe corner.

Arfin India Ltd carries ₹117 Cr of borrowings against ₹157 Cr of equity in FY25, a debt-to-equity of 0.75. Operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹109 Cr to ₹117 Cr. Capital spending ran ₹18.0 Cr across the last 3 of those years.

FY25: borrowings of ₹117 Cr against equity of ₹157 Cr — a debt-to-equity of 0.75. Operating profit covers the interest bill 2×. Over 5 years borrowings went from ₹109 Cr to ₹117 Cr while capital spending ran ₹18.0 Cr in just the last 3 — part of the build-out is riding on borrowed money.

→ Who owns this, and are they adding or leaving? Next: Promoters cut 4.3 points over 8 quarters.

Ownership Who owns the stock, quarter by quarter: promoters (the controlling owners), foreign and domestic institutions, and the public. Steady accumulation by people close to the numbers is a signal; a quiet register is also an answer.

Promoters cut 4.3 points of Arfin India Ltd over 8 quarters, the biggest move on the register. That takes promoters to 69.8% of the company. Foreign institutions moved +0.1 points over the same window, to 2.7%. The register is read on the four disclosed classes only; nothing is inferred between filings.

The register over the last two years — Promoters: −4.3 points over 8 quarters to 69.8%; Foreign institutions: +0.1 points over 8 quarters to 2.7%.

🚨 Why the register moved: promoters drove it (−4.3 points) — distribution into the market’s bid.

→ One last check: does the safety math agree? Next: the balance-sheet safety line.

Safety line The Z-score estimates how far a company sits from balance-sheet distress — above roughly 3 is safe, below roughly 1.8 is the danger zone. It was built for manufacturers, so it is not applied to banks and lenders.

Arfin India Ltd: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one. It is a distance-to-distress estimate from the balance sheet, not a forecast of failure. The debt, cash-flow and return sections above carry the balance-sheet evidence this page does hold, and each of them states its own reporting date.

The safety line in one sentence: the Z-score is not available for this stock, so we say so rather than invent one.

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