As of Mar 28, 2026, Cosmic CRF Ltd (Railways) has a deep value score of 60/100 (rated Average). Earnings are accelerating. 1Y return vs Nifty 500: -54%.
Deep value thesis based on recent earnings • Updated Feb 22, 2026
Cosmic CRF's strategic capacity expansion and order book strength position it for margin recovery and cash flow inflection in FY26, with current valuation ignoring structural improvements.
Verdict
TURNAROUND_IN_PROGRESS
Re-rating catalysts over the next 2-4 quarters • Updated Feb 22, 2026
₹45 crore capex facility starting production expected to add 7,200 MTPA capacity with margin expansion potential
Impact: +₹50 Cr revenue
“Land parcel acquired for state-of-art factory with production expected by February 2026”
Working capital normalization from 112-day cash conversion cycle expected to turn OCF positive
“Management guidance for significant FCF improvement starting FY26 per FY25 cash flow commentary”
₹550 crore unexecuted order book (1.8x FY25 revenue) to drive 80%+ YoY sales growth
Impact: +₹300 Cr revenue
“Order book status as of March 31, 2025 per PRNewswire report”
Risks that could prevent re-rating or deepen the value trap
Railway ministry payment delays exceeding 120 days
Impact: -200 bps margin impact
Management view: Management addressing through operational scale-up per FY25 commentary
Monitor: Debtor days trend
Equity fundraising above 15% of market cap
Management view: Not explicitly addressed in recent communications
Monitor: Promoter holding changes
Raw material prices rebounding 25%+ from current levels
Impact: -300 bps margin impact
Management view: Hedging strategy not disclosed; management focused on volume growth
Monitor: Gross margin trend
Forward-looking targets from management for FY26
Revenue Growth Target
80%
Implied PAT Growth
25%
OPM Guidance
13%
Capex Plan
₹0 Cr
Credit Growth Target
0%
Key Milestones
• Forged components plant operational by Feb 2026
• Free cash flow turning positive in FY26
• Volume doubling target
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +80% | — | Accelerating |
| PAT (Net Profit) | +33% | +80% | Stable |
| OPM | 12.0% | -100 bps | Volatile |
The above analysis is AI-generated from publicly available financial data. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Feb 22, 2026.
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
Cosmic CRF Ltd has a deep value score of 60/100 (rated Average). This score is calculated from three components
Cosmic CRF Ltd's quarterly profit (PAT) growth trajectory
Cosmic CRF Ltd is underperforming the market despite improving earnings — this is the core deep value thesis
Cosmic CRF Ltd's earnings momentum is Accelerating — profit growth is speeding up.
Cosmic CRF Ltd's valuation metrics
Cosmic CRF Ltd's revenue and margin trends
Cosmic CRF Ltd key facts
Cosmic CRF Ltd shows strong deep value signals — good score (60/100), accelerating earnings, and significant underperformance vs Nifty.
Other deep value stocks in Railways
Railways deep value sector overview
Deep value investing studies stocks that are underperforming the market despite showing improving fundamentals. The thesis is that the market has not yet recognized the earnings recovery, creating a potential valuation gap. It requires patience — recovery can take several quarters.
The deep value score (0-100) combines three factors:
- Earnings (0-40 pts): PAT growth across last 3 quarters, acceleration, and consecutive growth - Underperformance (0-35 pts): How much the stock trails Nifty 500 over 1Y, 6M, 3M (deeper underperformance = higher score) - Quality (0-25 pts): Revenue growth, margin trends, and valuation metrics (PEG, P/B)
Higher score indicates a stronger contrarian research signal.
Cosmic CRF Ltd has 3 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
Cosmic CRF Ltd has 3 key risks worth monitoring
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.
