Order Book Or Contract Wins
Expected: Next 12-15 monthsHIGH confidence
What: Order Book: ₹615 Cr
“The order book stands at INR615 crores. It's kind of repetitive, but majority of the points that we've spoken about is pretty much the same.”
Cosmic CRF Ltd: Is It a Deep Value Opportunity?
AverageAccelerating
As of , Cosmic CRF Ltd (Railways) has a deep value score of 53/100 (rated Average). Earnings are accelerating. 1Y return vs Nifty 500: -38%.
Cosmic CRF Ltd Key Facts
- PE Ratio
- 20.5x
- Market Cap
- ₹735 Cr
- Value Score
- 53/100
- Margin of Safety
- 103%
- PAT Growth YoY
- +33%
- Revenue Growth YoY
- +80%
- OPM
- 12.0%
Emerging Opportunity
What's Happening
⏳Steady earner with flat PE — waiting for re-rate catalyst
📊Debt increased 47% YoY — leverage rising
👔Promoter stake down 6.5% this quarter
🏛️DII accumulation — stake up 3.8%
💰Trading 103% below estimated fair value — significant discount
Earnings Acceleration Triggers
1. Order Book Or Contract Wins
Next 12-15 monthsHIGH
2. Operating Leverage Inflection
FY26HIGH
3. Regulatory Approval Or License Win
45 daysMEDIUM
Key Risks
1. Multiple legal challenges in NCLT/NCLAT regarding the Amzen acquisition by compe
HIGH2. Softening steel prices impacting top-line revenue growth despite volume increase
MEDIUM3. Shortage of wheelsets in the railway industry causing delays in wagon offtake
LOWSector-Specific Signals
Order Book₹615 Cr+₹94 Cr
Capacity Utilisation80%
Total Installed Capacity145,000 MT+109,000 MT
Operational Cost per Metric Ton₹1,600-₹4,400
Key Numbers
PAT Growth YoY
+33%
Stable
Revenue YoY
+80%
Accelerating
Operating Margin
12.0%
-100 bps YoY
PE Ratio
20.5
Current Price
₹799
3Y PAT CAGR
+80%
Market Cap
735 Cr
Valuation
Significantly UndervaluedWhy Are Cosmic CRF Ltd's Earnings Accelerating?
Based on Q2 FY26 earnings • Updated Apr 18, 2026
Operating Leverage Inflection
Expected: FY26HIGH confidence
What: Operational Cost per Ton: ₹1,600
Impact: ₹1,266 target
“My cost today... used to be around INR6,000 per metric ton... Cut to today, it's INR1,600. And I think this year, we should touch INR1,266.”
Regulatory Approval Or License Win
Expected: 45 daysMEDIUM confidence
What: RDSO License: Pending
“your spring unit is also completely ready, just awaiting its RDSO licenses to come in, which should happen any time within the next 40, 45 more days.”
Volume growth of 108.64%
MEDIUM confidence
What: Volume growth of 108.64%
“We've achieved 108.64% volume growth year-on-year basis and all-time high volume top line, bottom line has been achieved this year in September 2025.”
What Are the Key Risks for Cosmic CRF Ltd?
Earnings deceleration risks from management commentary
Multiple legal challenges in NCLT/NCLAT regarding the Amzen acquisition by compe
HIGHTrigger: Competing bidders (H2/H3) challenged the eligibility and capability of Cosmic CRF to acquire the asset.
Impact: PAT impact: ₹3.25 Cr legal cost
Management view: Management has filed rejoinders and claims the competing consortium has broken; one major opponent (Myotic) has withdrawn.
Monitor: litigation
Softening steel prices impacting top-line revenue growth despite volume increase
MEDIUMTrigger: Global steel price trends and a shift in product mix toward mild steel.
Impact: PAT impact: ₹100 Cr revenue miss in FY25
Management view: Focusing on volume (tonnage) and fixed conversion rates to protect absolute margins.
Monitor: commodity
Shortage of wheelsets in the railway industry causing delays in wagon offtake
LOWTrigger: Supply chain issues at RFW (Rail Wheel Factory) impacting the entire wagon building ecosystem.
Management view: Diverting production to infrastructure products to avoid working capital blockage.
Monitor: logistics
What Is Cosmic CRF Ltd's Management Saying?
Key quotes from recent conference calls
“the guidance that had given last year and also in the half yearly was that we will touch INR500 crores. [Previous Revenue guidance]”
“Amzen Transportation Industries Private Limited individually is a book which is as big or maybe twice, 2x of what we are today. [Initiative: Amzen Transportation Acquisition]”
“for Amzen, majority of the cost's legal, and if you go through the books, there are 8 or 10 legal cases that we were fighting. [Risk (litigation): HIGH]”
“the pricing of the raw material is soft. It's just the way it is for the steel market at large over the last five years has been softening. [Risk (commodity): MEDIUM]”
What Did Cosmic CRF Ltd Report This Quarter?
Headline numbers from the latest earnings call
Revenue
₹304.5 Cr
YoY +79.7%
Why: Revenue increased due to a massive volume jump in engineering goods and the addition of subsidiary performance from N.S. Engineering and Cosmic Springs.
Consolidated revenue grew by nearly 80% year-on-year despite softening steel prices.
EBITDA
₹37.8 Cr
YoY +72.6%Margin 12.4%
Why: EBITDA growth was driven by economies of scale and a significant reduction in overhead costs per metric ton.
EBITDA margins expanded significantly as operational costs per ton dropped from ₹6,000 to ₹1,600.
PAT
₹24.5 Cr
YoY +39.2%
Why: PAT growth was supported by operational performance and a ₹5.9 crore exceptional item in the previous year's base.
Adjusting for the prior year's exceptional item, the underlying PAT jump was approximately 100%.
Other Highlights
• Sales volume in standalone reached 47,200 metric tons in H1 FY26 compared to 22,500 metric tons in H1 FY25.
• Operating cash flow improved from ₹89 Cr negative to ₹2 Cr negative within six months.
• Operational cost per metric ton reduced to ₹1,600 from an initial ₹6,000.
What Sector Metrics Matter for Cosmic CRF Ltd?
Sub-sector-specific signals from the latest concall — each with management's stated reason for the change
Order Book
₹615 Cr
YoY +₹94 Cr
Why: Increased orders from both railway and infrastructure segments.
Capacity Utilisation
80%
Why: High demand but occasional site-level glitches like weather impact utilization.
Total Installed Capacity
145,000 MT
YoY +109,000 MT
Why: Aggressive expansion at Singur and acquisition of N.S. Engineering.
Operational Cost per Metric Ton
₹1,600
YoY -₹4,400
Why: Economies of scale and lean overhead management.
Total SKUs
4,500
YoY +3,950
Why: Expansion into infrastructure products and ancillarization.
Operating Cash Flow Journey
₹87 Cr
Why: Aggressive debtor collection and reduction of unnecessary advances to creditors.
Railway vs Infra Revenue Mix
52% Railway
Why: Strategic shift to balance railway dependency with infrastructure products.
Spring Unit Gross Margin
25%
Why: Niche product with higher value-add compared to standard cold rolled sections.
What Is Cosmic CRF Ltd's Management Guidance?
Forward-looking targets from management for 3-5 years
OPM Guidance
14%
Capex Plan
₹40 Cr
Revenue Outlook
₹3500 Cr
Margin Outlook
Targeting 13-14% EBITDA and 9-10% PAT margins.
Capex Plan
₹40 Cr
Forging unit construction
Volume
Targeting 100,000 to 110,000 tons by the end of the current financial year.
Management Tone: BULLISH
Guidance Changes
REAFFIRMED
Equity Dilution: Not Given → No dilution till March 2028
How Fast Is Cosmic CRF Ltd Growing?
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +80% | — | Accelerating |
| PAT (Net Profit) | +33% | +80% | Stable |
| OPM | 12.0% | -100 bps | Volatile |
The above analysis is parsed from publicly available earnings call transcripts. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Apr 18, 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions: Cosmic CRF Ltd
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
What is Cosmic CRF Ltd's deep value score?
Cosmic CRF Ltd has a deep value score of 53/100 (rated Average). This score is calculated from three components
- Earnings Score: 30/40 — measures PAT growth momentum across quarters
- Underperformance Score: 20/35 — how much the stock trails Nifty 500 (deeper underperformance = higher contrarian signal)
- Quality Score: 13/25 — operational quality (margins, revenue growth, valuation)
Is Cosmic CRF Ltd fundamentally improving?
Cosmic CRF Ltd's quarterly profit (PAT) growth trajectory
- Latest Quarter PAT Growth (QoQ): +114%
- Previous Quarter PAT Growth (QoQ): -35%
- PAT Acceleration: +148.8pp (profits are accelerating)
- 1 consecutive quarters of positive PAT growth
Why is Cosmic CRF Ltd underperforming despite good earnings?
Cosmic CRF Ltd is underperforming the market despite improving earnings — this is the core deep value thesis
- 1-Year Return vs Nifty 500: -38%
- 6-Month Return vs Nifty 500: -34%
- 3-Month Return vs Nifty 500: -23%
- Yet average quarterly PAT growth is +40% — earnings are improving
- The market often takes time to re-rate stocks with improving fundamentals. This gap between price performance and earnings improvement is what deep value research seeks to identify.
What is the earnings momentum for Cosmic CRF Ltd?
Cosmic CRF Ltd's earnings momentum is Accelerating — profit growth is speeding up.
- Acceleration: +148.8pp
- PAT YoY Growth: +33%
Is Cosmic CRF Ltd undervalued?
Cosmic CRF Ltd's valuation metrics
- Price-to-Earnings (PE): 17.8x
- Price-to-Book (PB): 2.1x
- Margin of Safety: +189% (appears undervalued)
What are the revenue and margin trends for Cosmic CRF Ltd?
Cosmic CRF Ltd's revenue and margin trends
- Latest Quarter Revenue Growth (QoQ): +31%
- Average Quarterly Revenue Growth: +34%
- Revenue Acceleration: -6.0pp
- Latest OPM Change: +2.8pp (margins expanding)
- Average OPM Change: -0.3pp
- Revenue YoY: +80%
What sector does Cosmic CRF Ltd belong to?
Cosmic CRF Ltd key facts
- Sector: Railways
- Market Cap: ₹735 Cr
- Rank in Railways: #1 by value score
- Overall rank among all deep value stocks: #10
Is Cosmic CRF Ltd a good deep value opportunity to study?
Cosmic CRF Ltd shows limited deep value signals currently — score is 53/100 (Average). Monitor for improvement.
- Value Score: 53/100 (Average)
- Earnings: Accelerating
- 1Y Underperformance: -38% vs Nifty 500
What is the bull and bear case for Cosmic CRF Ltd?
Research Signals (Bull Case)
- Earnings accelerating — profit growth speeding up
- Appears undervalued based on fair value analysis
Risk Factors (Bear Case)
- Significant underperformance (-38% vs Nifty 1Y)
- Operating margins contracting
How does the Railways sector look for deep value?
Railways deep value sector overview
- 1 deep value stocks in this sector
- Average value score: 53/100
- Avg PAT acceleration: +148.8pp
- Top pick: Cosmic CRF Ltd
What is deep value investing?
Deep value investing studies stocks that are underperforming the market despite showing improving fundamentals. The thesis is that the market has not yet recognized the earnings recovery, creating a potential valuation gap. It requires patience — recovery can take several quarters.
How is the deep value score calculated?
The deep value score (0-100) combines three factors:
- Earnings (0-40 pts): PAT growth across last 3 quarters, acceleration, and consecutive growth - Underperformance (0-35 pts): How much the stock trails Nifty 500 over 1Y, 6M, 3M (deeper underperformance = higher score) - Quality (0-25 pts): Revenue growth, margin trends, and valuation metrics (PEG, P/B)
Higher score indicates a stronger contrarian research signal.
What are the growth catalysts for Cosmic CRF Ltd?
Cosmic CRF Ltd has 4 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
- Order Book Or Contract Wins
- Operating Leverage Inflection
- Regulatory Approval Or License Win
- Volume growth of 108.64%
What are the key risks in Cosmic CRF Ltd?
Cosmic CRF Ltd has 3 key risks worth monitoring
- Multiple legal challenges in NCLT/NCLAT regarding the Amzen acquisition by compe
- Softening steel prices impacting top-line revenue growth despite volume increase
- Shortage of wheelsets in the railway industry causing delays in wagon offtake
What did Cosmic CRF Ltd's management say in the latest earnings call?
In Q2 FY26, Cosmic CRF Ltd's management highlighted
- "the guidance that had given last year and also in the half yearly was that we will touch INR500 crores. [Previous Revenue guidance]"
- "Amzen Transportation Industries Private Limited individually is a book which is as big or maybe twice, 2x of what we are today. [Initiative: Amzen Tr..."
- "for Amzen, majority of the cost's legal, and if you go through the books, there are 8 or 10 legal cases that we were fighting. [Risk (litigation): HI..."
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.