As of Mar 28, 2026, Indraprastha Gas Ltd (Gas Distribution) has a deep value score of 42/100 (rated Average).
Deep value thesis based on recent earnings • Updated Mar 21, 2026
IGL is experiencing margin recovery with EBITDA margins rebounding to 12% in Q3 FY26 while volumes grow steadily, signaling the beginning of a cyclical upturn in city gas distribution.
Verdict
TURNAROUND_IN_PROGRESS
Re-rating catalysts over the next 2-4 quarters • Updated Mar 21, 2026
Expected 25% PAT growth with margins expanding to 12.5% as summer driving season boosts CNG demand.
Impact: +₹1016.88 Cr revenue
“Management guidance on Q3 earnings call”
Potential 5-7% reduction in input costs from new domestic gas pricing formula.
“Petroleum Ministry draft policy leaked to ET”
IGL Genesis subsidiary IPO filing expected, unlocking ₹800-1,000 Cr in value from EV charging business.
“SEBI filing expected per industry sources”
Interim dividend of ₹3.25/share (current yield 1.8%) likely to be supplemented by special dividend from asset sales.
“Historical dividend pattern and management commentary”
Risks that could prevent re-rating or deepen the value trap
LNG prices > $12/MMBtu
Impact: -400 bps margin impact
Management view: Management monitoring closely with hedging discussions underway
Monitor: Henry Hub futures price
DSO > 50 days
Impact: -150 bps margin impact
Management view: Focus on receivables collection per CFO commentary
Monitor: Accounts receivable turnover
Market share loss > 2%
Impact: -200 bps margin impact
Management view: Focus on customer retention programs per management
Monitor: CNG volume growth vs industry average
Forward-looking targets from management for FY27
Revenue Growth Target
7%
Implied PAT Growth
22%
OPM Guidance
13.5%
Capex Plan
₹1200 Cr
Credit Growth Target
0%
NIM Guidance
0%
Key Milestones
• Gas price revision by May 2026
• IGL Genesis IPO by June 2026
Revenue, profit and margin growth rates
| Metric | YoY | 3Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +8% | +25% | Stable |
| PAT (Net Profit) | +21% | +4% | Stable |
| OPM | 12.0% | +200 bps | Stable |
The above analysis is AI-generated from publicly available financial data. This is educational research only — not investment advice. Last updated Mar 21, 2026.
Based on publicly available financial data. This is educational research, not investment advice.
Indraprastha Gas Ltd has a deep value score of 42/100 (rated Average). This score is calculated from three components
Indraprastha Gas Ltd's quarterly profit (PAT) growth trajectory
Indraprastha Gas Ltd is underperforming the market despite improving earnings — this is the core deep value thesis
Indraprastha Gas Ltd's earnings momentum is Monitoring.
Indraprastha Gas Ltd's valuation metrics
Indraprastha Gas Ltd's revenue and margin trends
Indraprastha Gas Ltd's trailing twelve month (TTM) performance
Indraprastha Gas Ltd key facts
Indraprastha Gas Ltd shows limited deep value signals currently — score is 42/100 (Average). Monitor for improvement.
Other deep value stocks in Gas Distribution
Deep value investing studies stocks that are underperforming the market despite showing improving fundamentals. The thesis is that the market has not yet recognized the earnings recovery, creating a potential valuation gap. It requires patience — recovery can take several quarters.
The deep value score (0-100) combines three factors:
- Earnings (0-40 pts): PAT growth across last 3 quarters, acceleration, and consecutive growth - Underperformance (0-35 pts): How much the stock trails Nifty 500 over 1Y, 6M, 3M (deeper underperformance = higher score) - Quality (0-25 pts): Revenue growth, margin trends, and valuation metrics (PEG, P/B)
Higher score indicates a stronger contrarian research signal.
Indraprastha Gas Ltd has 4 key growth catalysts identified from recent earnings analysis
Indraprastha Gas Ltd has 3 key risks worth monitoring
The above FAQs are generated from publicly available earnings data. This is educational research only. Sector Alpha is not SEBI registered and does not provide investment advice.
