# Crypto market analysis — Bitcoin, breadth and theme rotation

> RISK OFF. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average by 12.1%; the liquid-alt basket has -21.6% over 90 days; 20.8% of 159 liquid alts are above their own 200-day averages; and alts show -1.9% relative strength versus Bitcoin.

Decision read: Treat isolated alt rallies as countertrend until Bitcoin reclaims the 200-day average and breadth clears 50%.

## Agent research brief

- Market state: RISK OFF: Bitcoin is -12.1% versus its 200-day average.
- Participation: 20.8% of 159 liquid alts are above trend. A low reading means a few rallies do not constitute alt season.
- Relative opportunity: The alt basket is -1.9% versus Bitcoin over 90 days; Bitcoin remains the opportunity-cost benchmark.
- Portfolio implication: Preserve selectivity. Research relative leaders, but do not mistake isolated strength for permission to broaden crypto risk.

Data as of 2026-07-31. Market-cap snapshot 2026-07-04.

## Current market regime

- Regime: RISK OFF
- Bitcoin vs 200-day average: -12%
- Bitcoin 90-day return: -20%
- Alt breadth: 20.8% of 159 liquid assets
- Alt relative strength vs Bitcoin: -1.9%

## Crypto theme rotation ranking

1. Lending: 77.89/100 — 35.0 + 17.1 + 14.8 + 10.9 = 77.9; 13w vs BTC +41%; breadth 57.1%; rated 11/14; /crypto/sector/lending
2. Liquid Staking: 61.42/100 — 35.0 + 4.3 + 11.8 + 10.3 = 61.4; 13w vs BTC +81%; breadth 14.3%; rated 9/12; /crypto/sector/liquid-staking
3. Privacy: 54.02/100 — 28.2 + 5.2 + 8.6 + 12.0 = 54.0; 13w vs BTC +15%; breadth 17.4%; rated 24/27; /crypto/sector/privacy
4. Meme: 53.64/100 — 27.7 + 6.8 + 7.2 + 12.1 = 53.6; 13w vs BTC +15%; breadth 22.5%; rated 52/94; /crypto/sector/meme
5. DEX: 50.4/100 — 25.4 + 4.3 + 9.9 + 10.7 = 50.4; 13w vs BTC +11%; breadth 14.3%; rated 33/48; /crypto/sector/dex
6. AI: 49.83/100 — 25.9 + 5.4 + 6.4 + 12.1 = 49.8; 13w vs BTC +12%; breadth 17.9%; rated 83/110; /crypto/sector/ai
7. Oracle: 43.91/100 — 19.0 + 5.0 + 10.5 + 9.4 = 43.9; 13w vs BTC +2.2%; breadth 16.7%; rated 7/8; /crypto/sector/oracle
8. Exchange Tokens: 41.75/100 — 15.3 + 4.5 + 9.6 + 12.3 = 41.8; 13w vs BTC -3.1%; breadth 15.0%; rated 20/25; /crypto/sector/exchange-tokens
9. Payments: 41.59/100 — 20.8 + 3.0 + 8.8 + 9.0 = 41.6; 13w vs BTC +4.7%; breadth 10.0%; rated 10/13; /crypto/sector/payments
10. DePIN: 40.67/100 — 16.6 + 7.1 + 6.6 + 10.3 = 40.7; 13w vs BTC -1.3%; breadth 23.8%; rated 21/24; /crypto/sector/depin
11. DeFi: 37.75/100 — 16.5 + 2.3 + 7.6 + 11.4 = 37.8; 13w vs BTC -1.4%; breadth 7.7%; rated 31/46; /crypto/sector/defi
12. Layer 1: 36.9/100 — 12.0 + 2.1 + 8.3 + 14.5 = 36.9; 13w vs BTC -7.8%; breadth 7.1%; rated 63/77; /crypto/sector/layer-1
13. Gaming: 33.06/100 — 11.8 + 2.7 + 8.0 + 10.6 = 33.1; 13w vs BTC -8.2%; breadth 9.1%; rated 36/43; /crypto/sector/gaming
14. RWA: 32.23/100 — 11.2 + 2.2 + 7.3 + 11.5 = 32.2; 13w vs BTC -9.1%; breadth 7.4%; rated 32/42; /crypto/sector/rwa
15. Layer 2: 30.35/100 — 9.5 + 3.8 + 6.8 + 10.3 = 30.4; 13w vs BTC -11%; breadth 12.5%; rated 33/48; /crypto/sector/layer-2
16. Wallets: 25.4/100 — 7.2 + 0.0 + 9.3 + 8.9 = 25.4; 13w vs BTC -15%; breadth 0.0%; rated 7/10; /crypto/sector/wallets
17. Interoperability/Bridges: 20.74/100 — 5.5 + 0.0 + 5.2 + 10.1 = 20.7; 13w vs BTC -17%; breadth 0.0%; rated 9/11; /crypto/sector/interoperability-bridges
18. Perps/Derivatives: 19.2/100 — 6.2 + 0.0 + 3.4 + 9.6 = 19.2; 13w vs BTC -16%; breadth 0.0%; rated 8/12; /crypto/sector/perps-derivatives
19. NFT: 16.17/100 — 0.0 + 0.0 + 6.8 + 9.4 = 16.2; 13w vs BTC -28%; breadth 0.0%; rated 6/9; /crypto/sector/nft

## Current asset leaders

- Velvet (VELVET) — 90d +322%; RS vs BTC +342%; median daily volume $10.9M
- SentismAI (SENTIS) — 90d +196%; RS vs BTC +216%; median daily volume $2.6M
- KAITO (KAITO) — 90d +128%; RS vs BTC +148%; median daily volume $45.2M
- Utya (UTYA) — 90d +125%; RS vs BTC +145%; median daily volume $634.7K
- Allora (ALLO) — 90d +122%; RS vs BTC +142%; median daily volume $43.3M
- Hydration (HDX) — 90d +121%; RS vs BTC +141%; median daily volume $8.6K
- Zama (ZAMA) — 90d +93%; RS vs BTC +113%; median daily volume $25.8M
- OpenServ (SERV) — 90d +70%; RS vs BTC +90%; median daily volume $698.5K
- MimbleWimbleCoin (MWC) — 90d +63%; RS vs BTC +83%; median daily volume $735
- Chainflip (FLIP) — 90d +58%; RS vs BTC +78%; median daily volume $104.0K
- B3 (Base) (B3) — 90d +57%; RS vs BTC +77%; median daily volume $5.4M
- Geodnet (GEOD) — 90d +53%; RS vs BTC +73%; median daily volume $377.2K
- Law Blocks AI (LBT) — 90d +46%; RS vs BTC +66%; median daily volume $723.6K
- ZIGChain (ZIG) — 90d +45%; RS vs BTC +66%; median daily volume $2.9M
- FOLKS (FOLKS) — 90d +45%; RS vs BTC +65%; median daily volume $1.7M
- WINkLink (WIN) — 90d +40%; RS vs BTC +60%; median daily volume $6.0M
- Ondo (ONDO) — 90d +38%; RS vs BTC +58%; median daily volume $92.9M
- COINDEPO (COINDEPO) — 90d +37%; RS vs BTC +57%; median daily volume $1.5M
- Jito (JTO) — 90d +35%; RS vs BTC +56%; median daily volume $32.7M
- Manifesting (MANIFEST) — 90d +34%; RS vs BTC +55%; median daily volume $32
- Anoma (XAN) — 90d +31%; RS vs BTC +51%; median daily volume $4.7M
- Zerebro (ZEREBRO) — 90d +30%; RS vs BTC +50%; median daily volume $8.4M
- NEAR Protocol (NEAR) — 90d +28%; RS vs BTC +48%; median daily volume $182.5M
- Bless (BLESS) — 90d +28%; RS vs BTC +48%; median daily volume $2.9M
- Injective (INJ) — 90d +28%; RS vs BTC +48%; median daily volume $71.7M
- Magma Finance (MAGMA) — 90d +28%; RS vs BTC +48%; median daily volume $2.5M
- Worldcoin (WLD) — 90d +23%; RS vs BTC +43%; median daily volume $191.4M
- JUST (JST) — 90d +22%; RS vs BTC +43%; median daily volume $27.4M
- Zcash (ZEC) — 90d +18%; RS vs BTC +38%; median daily volume $420.2M
- COTI (COTI) — 90d +16%; RS vs BTC +37%; median daily volume $2.4M

## Not rated this week

183 of the 690 coins tracked here are not rated this week: 134 have no price within 7 days, 1 carries a hole longer than 30 days inside the 95-day window, 48 report no traded volume.

- Hyperliquid (HYPE) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Rain (RAIN) — No price this week: Last traded price is 2026-04-29, 93 days before this page's 2026-07-31 reading.
- Canton (CC) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM) — Hole in the price history: Its price history has a 36-day hole inside the 95-day window these readings are measured over.
- LAB (LAB) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- MemeCore (M) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- Sky (SKY) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- Pi Network (PI) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Audiera (BEAT) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- ​​Stable (STABLE) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Jupiter (JUP) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- ADI (ADI) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Venice Token (VVV) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Lighter (LIT) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Aerodrome Finance (AERO) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- Arbitrum (ARB) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- Provenance Blockchain (HASH) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Hastra PRIME (PRIME) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Grass (GRASS) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- AINFT (NFT) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Unibase (UB) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Peanut (PEANUT) — No price this week: Last traded price is 2026-06-26, 35 days before this page's 2026-07-31 reading.
- RealLink (REAL) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- Starknet (STRK) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- coco (COCO) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Ape and Pepe (APEPE) — No price this week: Last traded price is 2026-05-22, 70 days before this page's 2026-07-31 reading.
- Nexus (NEX) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- TAC (TAC) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- Onyxcoin (XCN) — No traded volume reported: No traded volume is reported on most of the last 30 days, so it has no liquidity reading.
- Bitway (BTW) — No price this week: No traded price in the 95 days to 2026-07-31.
- …and 153 smaller coins excluded for the same stated reasons.

## Data limitations

- Market-cap data is a dated universe snapshot; historical circulating supply and FDV are not held.
- Today’s top-1,000 universe and today’s category tags are projected backward, so long history contains survivorship and taxonomy hindsight.
- Funding, open interest, liquidations, exchange flows, unlocks and developer activity are not available and are not inferred.
- Network fees and protocol revenue are operating evidence, not automatic token-holder cash flow.

## FAQs

### Is crypto risk-on now?

RISK OFF as of 2026-07-31. Bitcoin is below its 200-day average; alt breadth is 20.8%; and the liquid-alt basket’s 90-day relative strength versus Bitcoin is -1.9%.

### Is this Bitcoin-led or alt season?

RISK OFF is the canonical state. Alt season requires Bitcoin risk-on plus broad alt participation; a narrow alt rally with breadth below 50% is not called alt season.

### How many liquid altcoins are above the 200-day average?

20.8% of 159 liquid eligible altcoins are above their 200-day averages as of 2026-07-31.

### Which crypto theme ranks strongest now?

Lending ranks first at 77.89/100: 35.0 + 17.1 + 14.8 + 10.9 = 77.9. Its 13-week return versus Bitcoin, on an equal-weight index of its current rated members, is +40.8% with 57.1% breadth.

### Why are some crypto coins not rated on this page?

183 of the 690 coins tracked here are not rated this week: 134 have no price within 7 days, 1 carries a hole longer than 30 days inside the 95-day window, 48 report no traded volume. A coin is rated only if it has a traded price within 7 days of 2026-07-31, no hole longer than 30 days inside the 95-day window these readings are measured over, and some traded volume across the last 30 days.

### What does alt breadth mean?

Alt breadth is the share of the liquid eligible altcoin universe trading above its own 200-day moving average. It measures participation, not index return.

### Why benchmark crypto themes against Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is the opportunity-cost benchmark for crypto risk. A sector can rise in dollars yet destroy relative capital if Bitcoin rises faster.

### How is the alt index built?

It is a chain-linked equal-weight index of liquid non-stable altcoins. Equal weighting prevents Bitcoin-sized assets from hiding broad weakness.

### Are stablecoins included?

No. Stablecoins, wrapped assets, liquid-staking receipts and tokenized securities are excluded because they do not have independent price discovery.

### How are illiquid coins handled?

The regime and public sector ranks require liquid current data. Asset pages still show thin names, but the score labels sub-$5 million median daily volume as research-only.

### Why can a sector rise while breadth falls?

A small number of large or fast-rising tokens can lift a sector index while most members remain below their trend. The page therefore reads return and breadth together.

### Does Sector Alpha have funding rates or open interest?

Not in the current public research store. Funding, open interest, liquidations and unlock schedules are named as unavailable and are never inferred from spot price.

### Does crypto have a P/E or PEG ratio?

No company-style P/E or PEG is used. Crypto pages compare network fees, protocol revenue, token-liquidity and BTC-relative price evidence with explicit token-accrual caveats.

### How often is the crypto MLA page updated?

The page is rebuilt every weekday, and the CDN cache is invalidated when that rebuild publishes. Price and regime evidence currently run through 2026-07-31; market-cap metadata is separately dated 2026-07-04.

### Why can dates differ across crypto metrics?

Spot prices, derived technicals, market-cap snapshots, protocol activity and chain activity come from separate refresh jobs. The page shows each freshness date rather than pretending they share one as-of date.

### Which crypto themes are beating Bitcoin?

8 of the 19 crypto themes tracked here are ahead of Bitcoin over 13 weeks. Liquid Staking leads at +81.2%, followed by Lending at +40.8% and Privacy at +15.3%. Bitcoin is itself below its 200-day average, so being ahead of it does not mean rising.